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TOPIC 2probability 2

The document outlines the fundamentals of probability, including definitions of sample space, events, and methods for counting sample points such as permutations and combinations. It explains different types of probability (classical, empirical, and subjective) and their applications, along with key properties and rules like the additive and multiplication rules. Examples are provided to illustrate concepts and calculations related to probability in various scenarios.

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John Kenneth Gardose
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20 views20 pages

TOPIC 2probability 2

The document outlines the fundamentals of probability, including definitions of sample space, events, and methods for counting sample points such as permutations and combinations. It explains different types of probability (classical, empirical, and subjective) and their applications, along with key properties and rules like the additive and multiplication rules. Examples are provided to illustrate concepts and calculations related to probability in various scenarios.

Uploaded by

John Kenneth Gardose
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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ENGINEERING DATA

ANALYSIS
COURSE CODE: EMATH 3
PROGRAM NAME: BACHELOR OF SCIENCE IN
ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING (BSEE)
CREDIT UNITS : 3 UNITS (LEC)
PROBABILITY
The term probability refers to the study of randomness and
uncertainty. In any situation in which one of a number of possible
outcomes may occur, the discipline of probability provides
methods for quantifying the chances, or likelihoods, associated
with the various outcomes. The language of probability is
constantly used in an informal manner in both written and spoken
contexts.
Sample Space and Events
An experiment is any activity or process whose outcome is subject to
uncertainty.
Although the word experiment generally suggests a planned or carefully controlled
laboratory testing situation, we use it here in a much wider sense. Thus experiments
that may be of interest include tossing a coin once or several times, selecting a card
or cards from a deck, weighing a loaf of bread, ascertaining the commuting time
from home to work on a particular morning, obtaining blood types from a group of
individuals, or measuring the compressive strengths of different steel beams.
The Sample Space of an experiment, denoted by S, is the set of all possible
outcomes of that experiment.
An Event is a subset of a sample space. is a subset of a sample space.
Counting Sample Points
Multiplication rule - If an operation can be performed in n1 ways, and if of
each of these ways a second operation can be performed in n2 ways,
then the two operations can be performed together in n1n2 ways.
Permutation - A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of
objects. The arrangements are different/distinct. Denote by factorial
symbol ! the product of decreasing positive whole numbers.
Factorial rule:

Permutation rule (when all items are all different)


The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken
r at a time is
Counting Sample Points
Permutation rule (when some items are identical to others)

The number of permutation is reduced when a collection contains


identical element. the number of permutation, n objects, p of one type, q of
another s of another etc.
The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are of
one kind,
n2 of a second kind, . . . , nk of a kth kind is
Counting Sample Points
Circular permutation
The shifting of an entire order of elements one or more
steps forward or backward – the first element taking the position of
the last, or vice versa, without changing the order of the elements
in the sequence.
To calculate the number of ways n object can be arranged
in a circle we fix the position of one object, so the remaining (n-1)
objects can be arranged as if they were in a straight line.
Counting Sample Points
Combination
An arrangement of the selection of the objects regardless if
the order
The number of combinations of n distinct objects taken
r at a time

Permutations versus Combinations


When different orderings of the same items are to be
counted separately, we have a permutation problem; but when
different orderings are not to be counted separately, we have a
combination problem.
Examples:
1. In how many ways can you arrange 8 books on a shelf?
SOLUTION: since there are 8 books 8! =8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1=
40320
2. Suppose that four-letter words are chosen randomly with equally
likely outcomes:
a. How many four-letter words are there in the sample space?
SOLUTION: = 456,976 words
b. How many four-letter words are there that start with the letter
“S”?
SOLUTION: = 17,576 words
3. How many arrangements of letters can be formed from a word
“G,W, A,P, O”
SOLUTION: 5P3 = =
PROBABILITY

Probability(P) = Total number of possible outcome


Total number of sample
space

Method to solve probability


1. Classical
2. Empirical
3. Subjective
Classical probability - all the outcomes have equal
odds of happening. For example, rolling a dice or
tossing a coin. The formula of classical probability is
as follows: P(A)= f/N; where, P(A)= classical
probability, f= frequency or the number of favorable
outcomes, and N= Number of total possible outcomes.

Examples of Classical Probability are equal happening


of events. When we roll a dice, the probability of each
number is equal to 1/6 of the equal. This is an
example of a classical probability. A coin with an equal
probability of or 0.5 for tail and head.
Empirical Probability is found by first
completing an experiment or by otherwise obtaining
data. Then the probability of event E is found with the
formula P(E) =f/n where f is the frequency of the
outcomes of event E and n is the total number of
outcomes.

Example: A jar has 8 red balls, 6 blue balls, and 5


yellow balls, If a ball was drawn on a jar, what is the
probability of getting a red ball?
Number of red balls (f) = 8
Total Number of balls (n) = 19
P(red) = = 42.11%
PROBABILITY
Subjective method
The third type of probability is called subjective probability.
Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an educated
guess or estimate, employing opinions and inexact information
In subjective probability. A person or a group make an
educated guess is based on the person’s experience and evaluation
of a solution. For example, sports writer may say that there is a 70%
probability that the pirates will win the pennant next year. A physician
might say that, on the basis of her diagnosis, there is 30% chance the
patient will need an operation.
All there types of probability (classical, empirical, and
subjective) are used to solve a variety of problems in business,
engineering, and others fields.
PROBABILITY

Properties of probability
1. The probability of any event E, P(E), must be 0 and 1 inclusive.
2. If an event is impossible, the probability of the event is 0.
3. If an event is a certainty, the probability of the event is 1.
PROBABILITY
ADDITIVE LAWS

case 1. When two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the


probability that A or B will occur is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

case 2. If A and B are not mutually exclusive, then


P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Additive Laws of Probability
Case 1 Example:
What is the probability of getting a 2 and 6 in rolling a dice?

Solution: P(2) = P(6) =

P(2+6) = P(2) + P(6) = + = = = 0.3333 = 33.33%


What is the probability of getting a Spade and a Heart in a
standard deck of cards?
P(S) = P(H) =

P(S+H) = P(S) + P(H) = + = = = 0.5 = 50%


Additive Laws of Probability
Case 2 Example:
In a deck with 52 cards, what is the probability of drawing a spade or a
face card in two independent drawings?

Solution: There are 13 spades


Probability of spades =
There are 12 face cards
Probability of face card =
Number of a spade which is also a Face card = 3
Probability of a spade which also a Face card =
P(Spade & Face Card) = P(ace)+P(Face Card)-P(Ace & Face Card)

P(Spade & Face Card) = =42.31%


PROBABILITY
COMPLEMENTARY RULE
P(E) = 1 – P(E) or P(E) + P(E) = 1

MULTIPLICATION RULE
When two events are independent, the
probability of both occurring is
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)
When two events are dependent, the
probability of both occurring is
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B A)
Complementary Rule Examples:
What is the probability of not getting a 3 if a dice was
rolled? P’(3)
Solution: P(3) = , P’(3) = 1-P(3)
P’(3)=1- =
What is the Probability of not getting a Spade and a
Face Card in a standard deck of cards? P’(Spade & Face
Card)
P(Spade & Face Card) = P(ace)+P(Face Card)-P(Ace &
Face Card)
P(Spade & Face Card) = =42.31%
P’(Spade & Face Card) = 1- = 0.5769 = 57.69%
Multiplication Rule: When two events are independent,
the probability of both occurring is
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B)

A bag contains 3 red balls and 3 black balls. Two balls are drawn
with replacements. Consider the events
A =the first ball is red
B = The second ball is red
P(A) = = P(B) = =
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B)
= • = = 0.25 = 25%
When two events are dependent, the probability of
both occurring is
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B/A)
A bag contains 3 red balls and 3 black balls. One ball is
drawn from the bag, set aside, and then a second ball is
drawn. Consider the events
A = The first ball is red
B = The second ball is red
P(A) =
P(B/A) =
P(A and B) = P(A) • P(B/A)
P(A and B) = = = =

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