Independent and Conditional Porobability
Independent and Conditional Porobability
dependent or independent.
• Dependent events influence the probability of other events – or their
probability of occurring is affected by other events.
• Independent events do not affect one another
Multiplicative Rule of
probability
i. Dependent
ii. Independent events of probability
i. Dependent Events
The occurrence of some events may affect the
probability of occurrence of others
P A B P A P B
Independent Events
Two or more events are independent events if the
occurrence or nonoccurrence of one of the events
does not affect the occurrence or nonoccurrence
of the other events
i. P A B P A P B
ii . P A B '
P A P B '
iii . P A ' B P A P B
'
iv . P A ' B '
P A P B
' '
Example
There are 11 red and 11 blue
balls in a jar
At the start, two resistors are selected from the box. Find the probability that:
iii. Both are 10 Ω resistors.
component fails?
Solution
The probability that the engine component fails is the
probability that both engines fail therefore
P(engine component fails ) = P( main engine fails and backup engine fails )
P(main engine fails and backup engine fails ) = P(main fails) x P( backup fails)
P(main engine fails and backup engine fails ) = P(main fails) x P( backup fails)
= 0.05 x 0.10 = 0.005 = 0.5 %
Example 2
b
Find the reliability of the system shown the following. First, identify the series
and parallel sub-systems. There are 4 sub-systems.
Find the reliability of the system shown the following. First, identify the series
and parallel sub-systems.
0.91
0.90
0.92
0.96
0.94
0.93
0.95
An electronic system consists of four components: A, B, C, and D. The
operation of the system can be represented by four switches, with A and B in
series, and C and D in parallel with the series combination of A and B, as
shown in Figure 1 below. Continuity between input and output means the
system is in operation. Assume that C and D are 95 % pairwise , A is 96 % and
B is 97%
A game consists of spinning an unbiased arrow on a square board and throwing an
unbiased die. The board contains the letters A, B, C and D. The board is so designed
that when the arrow stops spinning it can point at only one letter, and it is equally
likely to point at A , B, C or D. List all possible outcomes of the game, that is, of
spinning the arrow and throwing the die. Find the probability that in any one game
the outcome will be:
A
D B
i. an A and a 6
C
ii. a B and an even number
iii. an A and an even number or a B and an
odd number
iv. a C and a number ≥ 4
Example – 4
Three missiles are fired at a target .If the probabilities of hitting the
target are 0.4, 0.5 and 0.6 respectively, and if the missiles are fired
independently what is the probability.
i that all the missiles hit the target (0.12)
ii. that exactly one hits the target (0.38)
iii. that exactly 2-hit the target (0.38)
iv. that atleast one of the three hits the target (0.88)
Assume events A, B and C are such that P ( A ) = 0.5 , P ( B ) = 0.6 , P ( C ) =
0.4, P ( A ∩ B ) = 0.3 , P ( B ∩ C ) = 0.2 , P ( C ∩ A ) = 0.1 and
P ( A ∩ B ∩ C ) = 0.05. Find
i.P ( A ∩B ∩ C’) by Venn Diagram ii. P ( A’ ∩ B ∩ C’) iii P (A U B U C)
A
P ( A ∩ B’ ∩ C’ ) B
P ( A’ ∩ B ∩ C’ )
P ( A ∩ B ∩ C’ )
0.15 0.25 0.15
P(A∩ B∩ C)
0.05
P ( A ∩ B’ ∩ C ) P ( A’ ∩ B ∩ C )
0.05 0.15
P ( A’ ∩ B’ ∩ C)
0.15
C
Example – 5
A unit contains 7 Army and 5 Naval officers .Another contains 9 Army 4 Naval
officers. An officer is selected at random form the first unit and transferred in
the second unit. An officer is selected at random from the second unit. What
is the probability, that he is an Army Officer? and he
is a Naval officer?
Independent Jet Engines Example
Solution
Solution:
a) Probability that she picked J and R =
b) Probability that both letters are L =
Probability Topics Tree
Random Probability Random
Expectation
Experiment Distribution Variable
Counting Rules
Sample
Outcomes Criteria Numeric
Space
Probability
Independent Dependent
P( A B ) = P ( A ) P Conditional Probability
(B)
Conditional
Probability
Similarly
It should be noted that P (A / B ) satisfies all
the basic axioms of probability
Definition:
Def#1:
The conditional probability of the event is
the probability that the event will occur, provided
the information that an event B has already
occurred. This probability can be written as P(A|
B).
• A conditional probability is a probability whose
sample space has been limited to only those
outcomes that fulfill a certain condition.
• The conditional probability of event A given that
event B has happened is
P(A|B)=P(A ∩ B)/P(B).
• The order is very important do not think that
P(A|B)=P(B|A)! THEY ARE DIFFERENT.
Suppose a pair of dice is tossed once. If it is known that one die
shows a 3 What is the probability that other die shows a 6
1,1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1
1, 2 2, 2 3, 2 4, 2 5, 2 6, 2
1,3 2,3 3,3 4,3 5,3 6,3
S
1, 4 2, 4 3, 4 4, 4 5, 4
6, 4
1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5
1, 6 2, 6 3, 6 4, 6 5, 6 6, 6
A = { (1,3), (2,3), (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4) , (3,5), (3,6), (4,3), (5,3), (6,3)}
B = { (1,6), (2,6), (3,6), (4,6), (5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
What is conditional probability? A typical consumer survey might result in data
like that shown below
If a student is selected at random from this group .Find the probability that
i.The student of 1st year class given that the student is smoker (0.212)
ii.The student is non smoker given that the student of 4 th year (0.310)
In a certain college 25% of the students passed In Mathematics, 15 %
of the students passed Statistics and 10 % of the students passed both
Mathematics and Statistics. A Student is selected at random.