STAT2

Lecture 2: Probability Theory II

Addition and Multiplication Rules,
Conditional Probability
 Recall
• A probability experiment is a chance process that leads to
well-defined results called outcomes.
• E.g.:
• Flipping a coin once.
• Rolling a die once.
• Rolling a die twice.
• etc.
• The set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment
is called a sample space.
• We are going to denote the sample space by S.
Examples
• Experiment: Tossing a coin once.
S = {H, T}
• Experiment: Rolling a die once.
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
• Experiment: Tossing a coin twice.
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
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 Recall
• An event, E, is a set of outcomes of a
probability experiment.
• ES
• The classical probability, P(E), of an event E
is given by
E
P( E ) 
S

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 Objectives
• At the end of this lecture, we will be able to

1. Determine whether two events are mutually exclusive.

2. Apply the addition rules.
3. Determine whether two events are independent.
4. Apply the multiplication rule for independent events.
5. Apply the rule of multiplication of dependent events.
6. Apply the multiplication rule of conditional probability.
7. Apply the total probability rule and Bay’s rule.

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 Mutually Exclusive Events
• Two events are mutually exclusive if no outcome of
the probability experiment would count as an
occurrence of both events.
• Two events are mutually exclusive if they have no
outcomes in common.

A
C B&C B
B

A and B are mutually exclusive B and C are not

More precisely
E 1 and E 2 are mutually exclusive events if
E 1  E 2  {}
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 Examples
• When drawing a card:
 Drawing a club and drawing a heart are mutually
exclusive events.
 Drawing a club and drawing a king are not mutually
exclusive
 Drawing the king of clubs is an occurrence of both events.

• When Rolling a single die:

 E1 is the event of getting a prime number.
 E2 is the event of getting an even number.
 E1 = {2, 3, 5}
 E2 = {2, 4, 6}
• E1 and E2 are not mutually exclusive.

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 Addition Rules
• If E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive events, then the
probability that E1 or E2 will occur is
P( E1 or E 2) P( E1)  P( E 2)

Mutually Exclusive Events

P(A Or B) = P(A)+P(B)

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 Addition Rule 2
• If E1 and E2 are not mutually exclusive then
P( E1 or E 2) P( E1)  P( E 2)  P( E1 and E 2)

Not Mutually Exclusive Events

• P(A Or B) = P(A)+P(B) – P(A And B)

• Otherwise the intersection area would

be counted twice

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 Note
• The event of E1 or E2’s occurring is
E1  E2
• The event of E1 and E2’s occurring is
E1  E2

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 Example 1
What is the probability of obtaining exactly two
heads or exactly two tails in 3 flips of a coin?
– These events are mutually exclusive.
– Probability = 3/8 + 3/8 = 6/8
What is the probability of obtaining at least two tails
or at least one head?
– A = {TTT, TTH, THT, HTT}, B = {TTH, THT, THH, HTT,
HTH, HHT, HHH}
The events are not mutually exclusive.
– P(A) = 4/8; P(B) = 7/8; P(A&B) = 3/8.
Therefore,
P(A or B) = 4/8 + 7/8 – 3/8 = 1

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 Example 2
A single die is rolled. What is the probability of getting a
prime number or an even number?
Solution
• E1 = {2, 3, 5}, is the event of getting a prime number.
P(E1) = 3 / 6 = 1 /2
• E2 = {2, 4, 6} is the event of getting an even number.
P(E2) = 3 / 6 = 1 / 2
• Not mutually exclusive.
• E1  E2 = {2}
P(E1  E2) = 1 / 6
• P(E1  E2) = 1/2 + 1/2  1/6 = 5 / 6
Another Solution
E1  E2 = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
 P(E1  E2) = 5 / 6 11
 Example 3
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7 nurses
and 3 physicians are females. If a staff person is selected, find the
probability that the subject is a nurse or a male.

Solution
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13
• P(nurse or male)
= P(nurse) + P(male)  P(male nurse)
= (8/13) + (3/13)  (1/13)
= 10/13
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 Example 4
A single card is drawn at random from an ordinary deck of
cards. Find the probability that it is either an ace or a red card.
Solution

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 More than two events
P( E1  E 2  E 3) 
P( E1)  P( E 2)  P( E 3)
 P( E1  E 2)  P( E1  E 3)  P( E 2  E 3)
 P( E1  E 2  E 3)

Can You see why?

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 Example 5
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards, find the
probability of getting the following.
1.A king or a queen or a jack.
2.A club or a heart or a spade.
3.A king or a queen or a diamond.

Solution

1. P("king") = 4/52 = 1/13, P("queen") = 1/13, P("jack") = 1/13

We note that the events “king, queen and jack” are mutually
exclusive. Thus
P("king or a queen or a jack")
= P("king") + P("queen") + P("jack")
= 3/13

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 Solution
2. P("club") = P("heart") = P("spade“)= 13/52 = ¼
We note that the events are mutually exclusive, Thus
P("club or a heart or a spade")
= P("club")+P("heart")+ P("spade") = ¾
3. P(king) = P(queen) =1/13
P (diamond) = ¼
We note that the events are NOT mutually exclusive, Thus, we
still have to get
P(king and diamond) = 1/52
P(queen and diamond) = 1/52
So,
P(king or queen or diamond)
= P(king)+P(queen)+ P(diamond)
- P(king and diamond)
- P(queen and diamond)
= 4/52 + 4/52 + 13/52 – 1/52 -1/52 = 19/52
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 Example 6
A box consists of 1000 rivets. 50 rivets with type A defect, 32 rivets with type B
defect, 18 rivets with type C defect, 7 rivets with type A and B defects, 5 rivets
with type A and C defects, 4 rivets with type B and C defects, 2 rivets with type
A, B and C defects
What is the probability that a rivet picked from the box will have:
1. Type A or Type B defect or both?
2. At least one of the three types of defects?
3. No defects?

Solution

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