Statistics For Business and Economics (13e)
Statistics For Business and Economics (13e)
Statistics for
Business and Economics (13e)
Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran
© 2017 Cengage Learning
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Chapter 4
Introduction to Probability
• Random Experiments, Counting Rules, and Assigning Probabilities
• Events and Their Probability
• Some Basic Relationships of Probability
• Conditional Probability
• Bayes’ Theorem
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Uncertainties
• Managers often base their decisions on an analysis of uncertainties such
as the following:
• What are the chances that sales will decrease if we increase prices?
• What is the likelihood a new assembly method will increase
productivity?
• What are the odds that a new investment will be profitable?
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Probability
• Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will
occur.
• Probability values are always assigned on a scale from 0 to 1.
• A probability near zero indicates an event is quite unlikely to occur.
• A probability near one indicates an event is almost certain to occur.
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Probability: 0 .5 1
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Statistical Experiments
• In statistics, the notion of an experiment differs somewhat from that of
an experiment in the physical sciences.
• In statistical experiments, probability determines outcomes.
• Even though the experiment is repeated in exactly the same way, an
entirely different outcome may occur.
• For this reason, statistical experiments are sometimes called random
experiments.
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
6
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
7
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
8
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
9
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
10
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
11
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Tree Diagram
• Example: Bradley Investments
Markley Oil Collins Mining Experimental
(Stage 1) (Stage 2) Outcomes
Gain 8 (10, 8) Gain $18,000
(10, -2) Gain $8,000
Gain 10 Lose 2
Gain 8 (5, 8) Gain $13,000
Lose 2 (5, -2) Gain $3,000
Gain 5
Gain 8 (0, 8) Gain $8,000
0
(0, -2) Lose $2,000
Lose 20 Lose 2
Gain 8 (-20, 8) Lose $12,000
Lose 2 (-20, -2) Lose $22,000
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
12
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
13
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
14
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Assigning Probabilities
• Basic Requirements for Assigning Probabilities
1. The probability assigned to each experimental outcome must be
between 0 and 1, inclusively.
0 < P(Ei) < 1 for all i
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
15
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Assigning Probabilities
• Basic Requirements for Assigning Probabilities
2. The sum of the probabilities for all experimental outcomes must equal 1.
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
16
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Assigning Probabilities
• Classical Method
Assigning probabilities based on the assumption of equally likely
outcomes
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otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
17
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Classical Method
• Example: Rolling a Die
If an experiment has n possible outcomes, the classical method would
assign a probability of 1/n to each outcome.
Experiment: Rolling a die
Sample Space: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Probabilities: Each sample point has a 1/6 chance of occurring
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
18
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Number of Number
Polishers Rented of Days Probability
0 4 .10 = 4/40
1 6 .15
2 18 .45
3 10 .25
4 2 .05
40 1.00
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
20
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Subjective Method
• When economic conditions or a company’s circumstances change rapidly it
might be inappropriate to assign probabilities based solely on historical data.
• We can use any data available as well as our experience and intuition, but
ultimately a probability value should express our degree of belief that the
experimental outcome will occur.
• The best probability estimates often are obtained by combining the estimates
from the classical or relative frequency approach with the subjective estimate.
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Subjective Method
• Example: Bradley Investments
An analyst made the following probability estimates.
Experimental Outcome Net Gain or Loss Probability
(10, 8) $18,000 Gain .20
(10, -2) $8,000 Gain .08
(5, 8) $13,000 Gain .16
(5, -2) $3,000 Gain .26
(0, 8) $8,000 Gain .10
(0, -2) $2,000 Loss .12
(-20, 8) $12,000 Loss .02
(-20, -2) $22,000 Loss .06
1.00
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
22
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
23
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
24
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
25
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
26
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Complement of an Event
• The complement of event A is defined to be the event consisting of all
sample points that are not in A.
• The complement of A is denoted by Ac.
Sample
Event A Ac Space S
Venn Diagram
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27
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Sample
Event A Event B Space S
Venn Diagram
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
28
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
29
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Sample
Event A Event B Space S
Venn Diagram
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
30
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
31
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Addition Law
• The addition law provides a way to compute the probability of event A, or
B, or both A and B occurring.
• The law is written as:
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A B)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
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32
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Addition Law
• Example: Bradley Investments
Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable or Collins Mining Profitable
We know: P(M) = .70, P(C) = .48, P(M C) = .36
Thus: P(M C) = P(M) + P(C) - P(M C)
= .70 + .48 - .36
= .82
(This result is the same as that obtained earlier
using the definition of the probability of an event.)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
33
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Sample
Event A Event B Space S
Venn Diagram
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
34
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
35
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Conditional Probability
• The probability of an event given that another event has occurred is called a
conditional probability.
• The conditional probability of A given B has already occurred is denoted by
P(A|B).
• A conditional probability is computed as follows :
𝑃 ( 𝐴∩ 𝐵)
𝑃 ( 𝐴| 𝐵 )=
𝑃 ( 𝐵)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
36
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Conditional Probability
• Example: Bradley Investments
Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
P(C|M) = Collins Mining Profitable given Markley Oil Profitable
We know: P(M C) = .36, P(M) = .70
Thus: =
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
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37
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Multiplication Law
• The multiplication law provides a way to compute the probability of the
intersection of two events.
• The law is written as:
P(A B) = P(B)P(A|B)
or
P(A B) = P(A)P(B|A)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
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38
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Multiplication Law
• Example: Bradley Investments
Event M = Markley Oil Profitable
Event C = Collins Mining Profitable
M C = Markley Oil Profitable and Collins Mining Profitable
We know: P(M) = .70, P(C|M) = .5143
Thus: P(M C) = P(M)P(M|C)
= (.70)(.5143)
= .36
(This result is the same as that obtained earlier
using the definition of the probability of an event.)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
39
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
40
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Conditional Probability
• Conditional probability: when the probability of one event is dependent on
whether some related event has already occurred
• Illustration: Lancaster Savings and Loan
• Interested in mortgage default risk
• Interested in whether the probability of a customer defaulting differs by marital status
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Subset of Data from 300 Home Mortgages of Customers at Lancaster Savings and
Loan –This data is available on Moodle
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
• The probability that a customer defaults on his or her mortgage is 120/300 = 0.4
• The probability that a customer does not default on his or her mortgage is 1 – 0.4
= 0.6 (or 180/300)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Conditional Probability
• When values give the probability of the intersection of two events, the
probabilities are called joint probabilities
• Marginal probabilities are found by summing the joint probabilities in the
corresponding row or column of the joint probability table
• Conditional probabilities can be computed as the ratio of joint probability
to a marginal probability
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otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Conditional Probability
Independent Events
• If the probability of event D is not changed by the existence of event M, then we
would say that events D and M are independent events
• Otherwise, the events are dependent
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otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Independent Events
• If the probability of event A is not changed by the existence of event B,
we would say that events A and B are independent.
• Two events A and B are independent if:
P(A|B) = P(A) or P(B|A) = P(B)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
48
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
49
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
50
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
51
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Bayes’ Theorem
• Often we begin probability analysis with initial or prior probabilities.
• Then, from a sample, special report, or a product test we obtain some
additional information.
• Given this information, we calculate revised or posterior probabilities.
• Bayes’ theorem provides the means for revising the prior probabilities.
Application
Prior New Posterior
of Bayes’
Probabilities Information Probabilities
Theorem
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otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
52
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Conditional Probability
• Example:
• A manufacturing firm receives shipments of parts from two different suppliers
• 65% of the parts purchased from supplier 1
• 35% of the parts purchased from supplier 2
• Quality of purchased parts varies according to their sources.
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
• The diagram in the next slide depicts the process of the firm receiving a part from
one of the suppliers and the discovering that the part is good or bad as a two-
step random experiment
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Conditional Probability
• The process of computing joint probabilities can be depicted in what is called a
probability tree.
• From left to right through the tree:
• The probabilities for each branch at step 1 are prior probabilities
• The probabilities for each branch at step 2 are conditional probabilities
• To find the probability of each experimental outcome, multiply the probabilities
on the branches leading to the outcome
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Conditional Probability
• Suppose the parts from the two suppliers are used in the firm’s
manufacturing process and a machine breaks while attempting the process
using a bad part;
• Given the information that the part is bad,
what is the probability that it came from supplier 1 and
what is the probability that it came from supplier 2?
• With the information in the probability tree, Bayes’ theorem can be used to answer these
questions
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Conditional Probability
• Bayes’ theorem is applicable when events for which we want to compute
posterior probabilities are mutually exclusive and their union is the entire sample
space.
• For a more general case, we have:
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Conditional Probabilities
For the manufacturing firm that receives shipments of parts from two different suppliers, we will have:
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
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60
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Posterior Probabilities
𝑃 ( 𝐴 1) 𝑃 ( 𝐺∨ 𝐴1 )
𝑃 ( 𝐴 1|𝐺 ) =
𝑃 ( 𝐴1 ) 𝑃 ( 𝐺| 𝐴1 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐴 2) 𝑃 ( 𝐺| 𝐴 2 )
= 0.657
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
61
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
• Step 1
Prepare the following three columns:
Column 1 - The mutually exclusive events for which posterior probabilities
are desired.
Column 2 - The prior probabilities for the events.
Column 3 - The conditional probabilities of the new information given
each event.
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otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
62
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
• Step 1
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional
Events Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(G|Ai)
A1 0.65 0.98
A2 0.35 0.95
1.0
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otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
63
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
• Step 2
Prepare the fourth column
Column 4
Compute the joint probabilities for each event and the new
information B by using the multiplication law.
Multiply the prior probabilities in column 2 by the corresponding
conditional probabilities in column 3. That is, P(Ai G) = P(Ai) P(G|Ai).
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
• Step 3
Sum the joint probabilities in Column 4. The sum is the probability
of the new information, P(G). The sum 0.637+ 0.3325=0.9695 shows
an overall.
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
• Step 3
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional Joint
Events Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(G|Ai) P(Ai I G)
A1 0.65 0.98 0.637 = 0.65*0.98
A2 0.35 0.95 0.3325 = 0.35*0.95
1.0 0.9695
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
• Step 4
Prepare the fifth column:
Column 5
Compute the posterior probabilities using the basic relationship of
conditional probability.
𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐺)
𝑃 ( 𝐴𝑖|𝐺 )=
𝑃 (𝐺)
The joint probabilities P(Ai I G) are in column 4 and the probability
P(G) is the sum of column 4.
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
• Step 5
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Prior Conditional Joint Posterior
Events Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Ai P(Ai) P(G|Ai) P(Ai I G) P(Ai |G)
Source A1 0.65 0.98 0.637 0.637/0.9695 = 0.65
Source A2 0.35 0.95 0.3325 0.3325/ 0.9695= 0.
1.0 0.9695
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
Conditional Probability
• Suppose the parts from the two suppliers are used in the firm’s
manufacturing process and a machine breaks while attempting the process
using any part:
• Given the information that the part is bad (or good),
• what is the probability that it came from supplier 1
and
• what is the probability that it came from supplier 2?
• With the information in the probability tree, Bayes’
theorem can be used to answer these questions.
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
Statistics for Business and Economics (13e)
End of Chapter 4
© 2017 Cengage Learning. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or
otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
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