Lesson 4

DATA
MANAGEMENT
Lesson Coverage
◦Basic Statistical Concepts
◦Measures of Central Tendency
◦Measures of Dispersion
◦Measures of Relative Position
◦Probability and the Normal Distribution

◦Correlation and Linear Regression

◦Chi-square
PROBABILITY
AND THE NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION
Lesson Coverage 5
Probability
◦Probability is simply how likely
something is to happen.
Terms
◦ Experiment is a process by which an outcome is
obtained.
Ex. Rolling a die.
◦ Sample space is the set (S) of all possible
outcomes of an experiment.
Ex. The sample space for a die roll is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6}
◦ A sample point is an element of a sample space.
Element is the object within the set
Terms
◦Event (E) is a subset of the sample space.
◦Simple event - an event with one outcome.
◦Compound event - an event consists of two or
more outcomes.
Ex. Let E1 = An even number is rolled.
E2 = A number less than three is
rolled.
Types of events
◦ Two events are mutually exclusive if
they have no sample points in common.
◦ Two events are independent when the
occurrence of one does not affect the
probability of the occurrence of the
other.
Probability of an Event
◦ If an experiment’s outcomes are equally
likely to occur, then the probability of an
event (E) is the number of outcomes in (E)
divided by the number of outcomes in the
sample space.
 𝒏(𝑬 )
𝑷 ( 𝑬 )=
𝒏 ( 𝑺)

Example: Probability of flipping a coin.

What’s the probability of the coin landing on Heads?

𝟏
¿) ¿ 𝟎 . 𝟓 𝒐𝒓 𝟓𝟎 %
𝑷 (𝒉𝒆𝒂𝒅 𝟐
 𝒏(𝑬 )
𝑷 ( 𝑬 )=
𝒏 ( 𝑺)

Example: Probability of rolling a die.

What’s the probability of rolling a One?

𝟏
𝑷 (𝟏)=
𝟔
 𝒏(𝑬 )
𝑷 ( 𝑬 )=
𝒏 ( 𝑺)

Example: Probability of rolling a die.

What’s the probability of rolling a One or a Six?

𝟐 𝟏
𝑷 (𝟏 𝒐𝒓 𝟔)= ¿
𝟔 𝟑
 𝒏(𝑬 )
𝑷 ( 𝑬 )=
𝒏 ( 𝑺)

Example: Probability of drawing cards.

Suppose we draw a card from a deck of playing
cards. What is the probability that we draw a
Spade?
𝟏𝟑𝟏
𝑷 ( 𝒔𝒑𝒂𝒅𝒆)= ¿
𝟓𝟐𝟒
Remember!
The probability of event is often written as .
The probability of an event can only be
between 0 and 1 and can also be
written as a percentage.
If P(A) equals zero, event A will almost
definitely not occur.
If P(A) is close to zero, there is only a small
chance that event A will occur.
If P(A) is close to one, there is a strong
chance that event A will occur.
If P(A) equals one, event A will almost
definitely occur.
The Fundamental Counting
Rule
In a sequence of n events in which the first
one has possibilities and the second event has
and the third has , and so forth, the total
number of possibilities of the sequence will be:

Note: In this case and means to multiply.

The Fundamental Counting Rule
𝑘1 ⋅ 𝑘2 ⋅ 𝑘3 ⋯ 𝑘𝑛
Example: Tossing a coin and rolling a die
1 Outcomes
2

3
H, 1 2 6
H T, 1

=
4 H, 2
5 T, 2
6 H, 3
1
T, 3

12
T
2 H, 4
3 T, 4
H, 5
4
5 T, 5
6
H, 6
The Fundamental Counting Rule
Example: A paint manufacturer wishes to
manufacture several different paints. The
categories include
red, blue, white, black, green,
Color
brown, yellow
Type latex, oil
Texture flat, semi-gloss, high gloss
Use outdoor, indoor
How many different kinds of paint
can be made if you can select one
color, one type, one texture, and one
use?
The Fundamental Counting Rule
red, blue, white, black, green, 7
Color
brown, yellow
2
Type latex, oil
3
Texture flat, semi-gloss, high gloss
2
Use outdoor, indoor

7 × 2 × 3 × 2 =
Color Type Texture Use
84
Factorial Notation

For any number

Note:
𝒏!=𝒏 ⋅ ( 𝒏−𝟏 ) ⋅ ( 𝒏− 𝟐 ) ⋅ …⋅𝟏
Example:

Note: To use the formulas in the

permutation and combination rules,
a special definition of 0! is needed.
0! = 1.
The Permutation Rule
◦The arrangement of n objects in a
specific order using r objects at a time is
called a permutation of n objects taking
r objects at a time. It is written as and
the formula is
The Permutation Rule 𝒏!
𝒏 𝑷𝒓 =
( 𝒏−𝒓 ) !
Example: Business Location.
Suppose a business owner has a choice of 5 locations in
which to establish her business. She decides to rank each
location according to certain criteria, such as price of the store
and parking facilities. How many different ways can she rank
the 5 locations?
𝟓! 𝟓 ⋅ 𝟒 ⋅ 𝟑⋅ 𝟐 ⋅ 𝟏
𝟓 𝑷 𝟓=
(𝟓 −𝟓)!
¿
𝟏 ¿ 𝟏𝟐𝟎
0! = 1
The Permutation Rule 𝒏!
𝒏 𝑷𝒓 =
( 𝒏−𝒓 ) !
Example: Television Ads.
The advertising director for a television show has 7 ads
to use on the program. If she selects 1 of them for the
opening of the show, 1 for the middle of the show, and 1 for
the ending of the show, how many possible ways can this be
accomplished?
𝟕! 𝟕 ⋅ 𝟔⋅ 𝟓 ⋅ 𝟒 !
𝟕 𝑷 𝟑=
(𝟕 −𝟑)!
¿
𝟒! ¿ 𝟐𝟏𝟎
The Combination Rule
◦ A combination is a selection of all or part
of a set of objects, without regard to the order
in which they were selected.
◦ The number of combinations of n objects
taken r at a time is denoted by nCr..
Order doesn’t
where:
matter and
repetition is n is the total number of
object.
allowed.
r is the number of
n Cr objects to be taken.
The Combination Rule Cr
n

Example: How many different ways can you select

2 letters from the set of letters: X, Y, and Z?
𝟑! 𝟑 ⋅𝟐⋅𝟏 𝟑
3C2 ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿𝟑
𝟏 ! 𝟐! 𝟏 ⋅𝟐⋅𝟏 𝟏

Example: Given a club with 10 members, in how

many ways can a committee of
3 be selected? 𝟏𝟎 ! 𝟏𝟎⋅𝟗⋅𝟖⋅𝟕! 𝟕𝟐𝟎
C3
10 ¿ ¿
𝟕 ! 𝟑! 𝟕!⋅𝟑⋅𝟐⋅𝟏
¿
𝟔 ¿𝟏𝟐𝟎
The Combination Rule Cr
n

Example: A store has 18 different fruit juices and 16

different carbonated drinks in the cooler. How
many possible combinations if one should buy
one from each drink?

𝟏𝟖 ! 𝟏𝟖⋅𝟏𝟕⋅𝟏𝟔! 𝟑 𝟎𝟔
18C16 ¿ ¿ ¿ ¿𝟏𝟓𝟑
𝟐 !𝟏𝟔 ! 𝟐!⋅𝟏𝟔! 𝟐
Normal Probability
Distributions
◦ A function which assigns a number to each
element of the sample space is called random
variable.
◦ There are two types: Discrete and Continuous.
Variabl
e
Qualitat Quantitat Numeric
ive ive 1, 2, 3, 4, …
Descriptive
tall, short, good,
5 kids, 96 Discret 5.2 kg, 7.9
bad Continu
workers, inches, 2.7
3 laptops e ous miles
Determine if it is discrete or
continuous.
◦ The number of students in a certain D C
section of a statistics class.

◦ The height of students in a statistics class. D C

◦ The price of the face shields in the market. D C
◦ The temperature of a person. D C
◦ The distance from CTU Carmen to Cebu D C
City.
 Normal Distribution
The graph of the normal distribution
depends on two factors - the mean
and the standard deviation.

Population
Mean Standard
Deviation
“myu”
“sigma”
Normal Distribution

All normal distributions look like a symmetric,

Normal Distribution

smaller bigger
standard standard
deviation deviation

All normal distributions look like a symmetric,

Normal DistributionExactly half of the values are
PROPERTIE
S to the left of the center and
The graph is exactly half the values are to
symmetric about a the right of the center.
vertical line through Areas under the curve
the mean of the that are symmetric
distribution.
The mean, median, about the mean are
and mode are equal.
It is continuous;
equal and are at i.e., there are no
the center of the 50 50 gaps.
distribution. The total area
% % under the
curve is 1 or
100%.
Normal Distribution

2.35 13.5 34 34 13.5 2.35

% % % % % %
𝝁 −𝟑 𝝈 𝝁 −𝟐 𝝈 𝝁 − 𝝈 𝝁 𝝁+ 𝝈 𝝁+𝟐 𝝈 𝝁+𝟑 𝝈
68% of the
data
95% of the
data
99.7% of the
data
Standard Normal Distribution
This is the The standard normal
standard normal distribution is a
distribution where normal distribution of
mean is 0 and standardized values
standard deviation called z-scores.
is 1.

−𝟑 −𝟐 −𝟏 0 𝟏 𝟐 𝟑
Z-Score
• A z-score is measured in
units of the standard
deviation.
• The z-value or z-score is
actually the number of
standard deviations that
a particular X value is
away from the mean.
• Here is the formula in
 Example: The data set has a mean of 75
and standard deviation of 40. Find
the z-score when the score is 85.
NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION

45 −𝟓 35 75 11 155 19
5 5

STANDARD
NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION

− 𝟑− 𝟐−𝟏 0 𝟏𝟐𝟑
Example: Raul has taken two tests in his chemistry class. He
scored 72 on the first test, for which the mean of all the
scores was 65 and the standard deviation was 8. He
received a 60 on a second test, for which the mean of
all scores was 45 and the standard deviation was 12. In
comparison to the other students, did Raul do better on
the first test or the second test?
( 𝑥 − 𝜇) ( 𝑥 − 𝜇)
𝑍 72 = 𝑍 60 =
𝜎 𝜎
− 𝟑 2 −𝟏 0 1 2 3

− 𝟑− 𝟐−𝟏 0 𝟏𝟐𝟑
Raul scored better on the second
Finding Areas Under the Standard
Normal Distribution Curve
1. To the left of any z value:
Look up the z value in the table and use the
area given.

or

0 +𝑧 −𝑧 0
Finding Areas Under the Standard
Normal Distribution Curve
2. To the right of any z value:
Look up the z value and subtract from 1.

or

−𝑧 0 0 +𝑧
Finding Areas Under the Standard
Normal Distribution Curve
3. Between any two z values:
Look up both z value and subtract the
corresponding areas.

or

− 𝑧1 +𝑧 2 +𝑧 1 +𝑧 2
0 0
https://bit.ly/36VFDwi
The Standard Distribution Table gives the area
under the curve to the left of any z-value given
in two decimal places.
Example: Find the area to the left of z-value of
1.39
0.91 or
0.91
It means that
77
77 91.77%
there are 91.77%
− 𝟑 2 −𝟏 0 1 2 3

z 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 … 0.0 0.0

of z-scores less
than or equal to
0 1 2 3 8 9
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
.
1.39
.
.

1.3 0.91
1.4 77
Example: Find the area to the left of z = 2.06

0.98 or
0.98
It means that
03
03 are98.03%
there 98.03%
− 𝟑 2 −𝟏 0 1 2 3

z 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 … 0.0 0.0

of z-scores less
0.0
0.1
0 1 2 3 6 7
than or equal to
0.2
0.3
2.06
.
.
.

2.0 0.98
2.1 03
Example: Find the area to the right of z = -1.19
1 − 0.1170
0.11
70 0.88
0.88 or
It30
means 88.30%
30
that there are
− 𝟑 2 −𝟏 0 1 2 3

z 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 … 0.0 0.0

88.30% of z-scores
-
3.4
0 1 2 3 8 9
greater than or equal
-
3.3
-
3.2
-
to -1.19
.
3.1
.
.

- 0.11
1.1
- 70
1.0
Example: Find the area between z = -1.37 and z =
1.68 0.95
35 0 .9535 − 0.0853
0.08
53
0.86
0.86 or
82
82
It means86.82%
that there
− 𝟑 2 −𝟏 0 1 2 3

z 0.0 0.0 0.0 … 0.07 0.0 0.0

are 86.82% of z-
-
1.4
0 1 2

0.08
8 9
scores between -
-
1.3
-
1.2
-
53
1.37 and 1.68
.
1.1
.
.

1.6 0.95
1.7 35
 A Normal Distribution Curve as
a Probability Distribution Curve

0.47
72

−𝟑 2 −𝟏 0 1 2 3
 A Normal Distribution Curve as
a Probability Distribution Curve
The probability of
selecting a z value
between 2.25 and 2.94
is shown in the figure.

−𝟑 2 −𝟏 0 1 2 3
Find the probability of any z value between 0 and 2.32

𝑷 ( 𝟎<𝒛<𝟐.𝟑𝟐)
= 48.98%Note: In a continuous
distribution, the
0.98 probability of any exact
98 z value is 0 since the
area would be
represented by a
vertical line above the
0.50 0.48
00 98
value. But vertical lines
in theory have no area.
−𝟑 2 −𝟏 0 1 2 3
So P(a ≤ z ≤ b) = P(a < z < b)
Let’s Do These!
Find the probability for each:

a. P(z < 1.65) b. P(z > 1.91)

= 96.05% = 2.81%
PROBABILITY
AND THE
NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION