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Lesson 3

The document discusses Project Planning Techniques, specifically PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) and its differences from CPM (Critical Path Method). PERT is a probabilistic model used for scheduling complex projects with uncertain activity durations, while CPM is deterministic and focuses on cost minimization. The document outlines the steps involved in PERT, including estimating activity times, calculating expected time, variance, and probability of project completion.

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14 views17 pages

Lesson 3

The document discusses Project Planning Techniques, specifically PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) and its differences from CPM (Critical Path Method). PERT is a probabilistic model used for scheduling complex projects with uncertain activity durations, while CPM is deterministic and focuses on cost minimization. The document outlines the steps involved in PERT, including estimating activity times, calculating expected time, variance, and probability of project completion.

Uploaded by

molamoe11
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Al-Mansour University College

Department of Computer
Technology Engineering
Fourth Class / Project Management

Project Planning Techniques (PERT)

Lec. 3

Israa A. Resen
Difference between PERT & CPM
PERT CPM
A probability model with A deterministic model with well
uncertainty in activity known activity times based upon the
duration . The duration of past experience.
each activity is computed
from multiple time estimates
with a view to take into
account time uncertainty.

It is applied widely for


It is used for construction projects &
planning & scheduling
business problems.
research projects.

CPM deals with cost of project


PERT analysis does not
schedules & minimization.
usually consider costs.
PERT
PERT is designed for scheduling complex projects that
involve many inter-related tasks. it improves
planning process because:

1. It forms planner to define the projects various


components activities.
2. It provides a basis for normal time estimates & yet
allows for some measure of optimism or pessimism
in estimating the completion dates.
3. It shows the effects of changes to overall plans they
contemplated.
4. It provides built in means for ongoing evaluation of
the plan.
ESTIMATING ACTIVITY TIMES
 Optimistic time ( t0 ) : is that time estimate of an
activity when everything is assumed to go as per plan.
In other words it is the estimate of minimum possible
time which an activity takes in completion under ideal
conditions.

 Most likely time ( tm ) : the time which the activity will


take most frequently if repeated number of times.

 Pessimistic time ( tp) : the unlikely but possible


performance time if whatever could go wrong , goes
wrong in series. In other words it is the longest time
the can take.
EXPECTED TIME
 The times are combined statically to develop the expected time t e .

Standard deviation of the time of the time required to complete the


project

S = (𝑇𝑝 − 𝑇𝑜 ) / 6

𝑉 = [(𝑇𝑝 − 𝑇𝑜 ) / 6]2 = 𝑆2
STEPS INVOLVED IN PERT
 Develop list of activities.
 A rough network for PERT is drawn.
 Events are numbered from left to right.
 Time estimates for each activity are obtained.
 Expected time for each activity is calculated : to+4tm+tp / 6
 Using these expected times calculate earliest & latest finish &
start times of activities.
 Estimate the critical path.
 Using this estimate compute the probability of meeting a
specified completion date by using the standard normal
equation
Z = Due date – expected date of completion
standard deviation of critical path
QUESTION : The table shows
activities of project.
Duration (days)
Path OPTIMISTIC MOST PESSIMISTIC
LIKELY
1-2 1 4 7
1-3 5 10 15
2-4 3 3 3
2-6 1 4 7
3-4 10 15 26
3-5 2 4 6
4-5 5 5 5
5-6 2 5 8
1. Draw the network &find expected project
completion time.
2. What is the probability that it would be
completed in 41 days.
Variance of critical path
Activity To Tp variance

1-3 5 15 2.77
3-4 10 26 7.11
4-5 5 5 0
5-6 2 8 1
Total=
10.88
So, standard deviation = 3.30
Probability for completing the job in 41 days.
Z = DUE DATE – EXPECTED DATE OF
COMPLETION
S.D. OF CRITICAL PATH
= 41 – 36
3.30
= 1.51
The tabulated value of corresponding to calculated
value i.e. 1.51 is .4345
So probability is .5 + .4345 = .9345 i.e. 93.45% that
project will be completed on 41 day.
QUESTION:
Activity predecessor time
estimates (weeks)
activity Precedin to tm tp
g activity
A - 2 3 10
B - 2 3 4
C A 1 2 3
D A 4 6 14
E B 4 5 12
F C 3 4 5
G D,E 1 1 7
 Find the expected duration and
variance of each activity.
 What is the expected project
length?
 Calculate the variance
&standard deviation of the
project length.
activity to Tm tp te variance

A 2 3 10 4 16/9
B 2 3 4 3 1/9
C 1 2 3 2 1/9
D 4 6 14 7 25/9
E 4 5 12 6 16/9
F 3 4 5 4 1/9
G 1 2 7 2 1
Various paths &expected project length
A-C-F = 4+2+4 = 10
A-D-G = 4+7+2 = 13 CRITICAL
PATH
B-E-G = 3+6+2 = 11
Thus critical path is A-D-G with an
expected length of 13 days. Hence the
expected project length is 13 days.

Project variance = 16/9 + 25/9 + 1 = 50/9


Ex: By using PERT draw the network diagram and determine 𝑇𝑒 , 𝑆, 𝑉,
𝐸𝑆, 𝐸𝐹, 𝐿𝑆, 𝐿𝐹, 𝐶. 𝑃 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑉𝑐 for the following Table. Assume D=23
weeks.

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