Website Traffic Forecasting

The document discusses a website traffic forecasting system using Python, proposing the ARIMA model for time series analysis to predict future traffic patterns based on historical data. It outlines the existing challenges in forecasting, the advantages of the proposed system, and the necessary software and hardware requirements. The conclusion emphasizes the effectiveness of the Prophet model for quick forecasts and suggests future improvements in trend detection and model enhancement.

Uploaded by

Govind G

We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.

Available Formats

Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

0% found this document useful (0 votes)

46 views32 pages

Website Traffic Forecasting

Uploaded by

Govind G

We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.

Available Formats

Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

You are on page 1/ 32

WEBSITE TRAFFIC FORECASTING USING

PYTHON
ABSTRACT

• Web traffic is the amount of data sent and received by visitors to a

website and it has been the largest portion of Internet traffic.
• With the widespread traditional traffic sensors and new emerging
traffic sensor technologies, traffic data are exploding, and we have
entered the era of big data internet traffic.
• This inspires us to reconsider the internet traffic flow prediction model
based on deep architecture models with such rich amount of internet
traffic data. Now we proposed the prophet time series model to
forecasting website traffic.
EXISTING SYSTEM

• The problem of forecasting the future values of time series has

always been one of the most challenging problems in the field.
• Real time dashboard is a dashboard that contains visualizations that
are automatically updated with the most current data available.
• These data visualizations offer a combination of historic data and
real-time information that is useful for identifying emerging trends
and monitoring efficiency. Real time dashboards usually contain
data that is time-sensitive.
DISADVANTAGE
 Encrypted net traffic that utilizes solely the packet temporal order
information on the transmission. This attack is thus impenetrable
to existing packet artifact defenses.
 Time series analysis is restricted to time-dependent data. It's not
suitable for cross-sectional or purely categorical data.
 Noise Introduction: Techniques like differencing can introduce
additional noise into the data, which may obscure fundamental
patterns or trends.
PROPOSED SYSTEM

• Discrete wavelet Transform breaks down data signals into basic

wavelet functions. Since the time-series data procured for
investigation is noisy in nature it is very important to complete pre-
processing of the data.
• Since the data must be fixed in ARIMA henceforth we use high-
frequency data as a predictive contribution and uses data from low
frequencies as input.
• It was later observed that this technique yields palatable results for
less and more knowledge that is not the independently implemented
situation for ARIMA.
ADVANTAGE
 ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) the model
has a huge advantage in univariate time series forecasting.
 ARIMA model attempts to describe the trends and seasonality in
time series as a function of lagged values(Auto Regressive
parameter) and Averages changing over time intervals( Moving
Averages).
 The model includes differencing (Integrating) the original time series
data. Differencing time-series means forming a new time series by
subtracting the previous observation from the current time.
SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE
SOFTWARE SPECIFICATION

HARDWARE REQUIREMENTS:
• System : Pentium IV 2.4 GHz.
• Hard Disk : 500 GB.
• Monitor : 15 VGA Color.
• Mouse : Logitech.
• RAM : 4 GB.
SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS:

• Operating System : Windows-10/11 (64-bit).

• Frontend : HTML5, Bootstrap 4.5

• Backend : Python 3.10 (64-bit)

• Web Framework: Streamlit 1.4

• Dataset : Website Access Log Dataset(CSV)

• IDE Tools : Visual Studio Code 1.7

MODULES

 Data Collection and Preparation Module

 Exploratory Data Analysis Module
 Model Selection Module
 Parameter Identification Module
 Model Training and Evaluation
 Forecasting Module
 Visualization and Interpretation Module
DATA COLLECTION AND PREPARATION MODULE

 The initial stage required gathering two years' worth of historical

website traffic data.
 This dataset comprised daily totals of distinct users, divided into
those who were returning and those who were new.
 To deal with missing values, outliers, and inconsistencies,
preprocessing and data cleaning were done. The dataset was
properly formatted and organized for analysis.
EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS MODULE

 An analysis of the website traffic data using EDA was done to find
underlying patterns and trends.
 We examined the traffic distribution, looked for trends and
seasonality, and found any anomalies or patterns using descriptive
statistics, visualizations, and time series plots.
MODEL SELECTION MODULE
 The ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model
was selected because of how well it handled time series data when
predicting website traffic.
 ARIMA is a useful technique for forecasting future traffic patterns
because it effectively captures trends, seasonality, and
autocorrelation found in time series data.
PARAMETER IDENTIFICATION MODULE
 P, D, and Q are the three crucial parameters that must be determined
in order to use the ARIMA model.
 To find the proper values of p, d, and q, the unit root tests, the
Partial AutoCorrelation Function (PACF), and the AutoCorrelation
Function (ACF) were employed.
 The ARIMA model is composed of three components that are
controlled by these parameters: the moving average (MA),
differencing (I), and autoregressive (AR).
MODEL TRAINING AND EVALUATION

 With an emphasis on fitting the model to capture the underlying

patterns and dynamics of website traffic, the ARIMA model was
trained using the prepared dataset.
 In order to evaluate the trained model's accuracy and predictive
power, suitable performance metrics like Mean sq\.d Error (MSE)
and Root Mean sq\.d Error (RMSE) were used.
FORECASTING MODULE

 Website traffic forecasting for the required time period was carried
out following model evaluation and training.
 To confirm the ARIMA model's accuracy and dependability, the
predicted values were contrasted with the real traffic statistics.
VISUALIZATION AND INTERPRETATION
MODULE

 Time series plots and forecasted versus were among the suitable
graphs and charts that were used to illustrate the forecasting
process' outcomes. Genuine comparisons of traffic.
 In order to derive practical insights and facilitate decision-making
concerning marketing tactics, resource allocation and website
optimization, the results were interpreted.
SCREEN SHOTS
Run: streamlit run app.py
View Web URL
Landing Page
Select Website Access Logs Data
Load Logs Data in CSV
Visualization
Check for ARIMA
Check Result
View Forecast
Enter Parameter on Lowest RMSE
View Result on Forecast
CONCLUSION
 Prophet certainly is a good choice for producing quick accurate
forecasts. It has intuitive parameters that can be tweaked by someone
who has good domain knowledge but lacks technical skills in
forecasting models.
 One of the features that prophet supports is the concept of a
“holiday.”
 The API is relatively simple and since it uses the standard panda’s data
frame and matplotlib for displaying the data, it fits very easily into the
python data science workflow.
FUTURE WORK

 In the future, did like to improve our ability to spot hidden trends so
that can investigate how human behavior influences online traffic
more quickly. Then will look into the unsupervised model that has
been utilized in other papers to improve our model.
THANK YOU