Correlation &

Regression
 Correlation

Finding the relationship between two

quantitative variables without being
able to infer causal relationships

Correlation is a statistical technique

used to determine the degree to
which two variables are related
 Scatter diagram
• Rectangular coordinate
• Two quantitative variables
• One variable is called independent (X) and
the second is called dependent (Y)
• Points are not joined
• No frequency table
Example
SBP(mmHg)

220
200

180
160

140
120

100
80 wt (kg)
60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Scatter diagram of weight and systolic blood

pressure
SBP(mmHg)
220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80
Wt (kg)
60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Scatter diagram of weight and systolic blood pressure

Scatter plots

The pattern of data is indicative of the type of

relationship between your two variables:
 positive relationship

 negative relationship

 no relationship
Positive relationship
 18

16

14

12
Height in CM

10

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Age in Weeks
 Negative relationship

Reliability

Age of Car
No relation
 Correlation Coefficient

Statistic showing the degree of relation

between two variables
 Simple Correlation coefficient (r)

 It is also called Pearson's correlation

or product moment correlation
coefficient.
 It measures the nature and strength

between two variables of

the quantitative type.
The sign of r denotes the nature of
association

while the value of r denotes the

strength of association.
 If the sign is +ve this means the relation
is direct (an increase in one variable is
associated with an increase in the
other variable and a decrease in one
variable is associated with a
decrease in the other variable).

 While if the sign is -ve this means an

inverse or indirect relationship (which
means an increase in one variable is
associated with a decrease in the other).
  The value of r ranges between ( -1) and ( +1)
 The value of r denotes the strength of the
association as illustrated
by the following diagram.

strong intermediate weak weak intermediate strong

1- -0.75 -0.25 0 0.25 0.75 1

indirect Direct
perfect perfect
correlation correlation
no relation
If r = Zero this means no association or
correlation between the two variables.

If 0 < r < 0.25 = weak correlation.

If 0.25 ≤ r < 0.75 = intermediate correlation.

If 0.75 ≤ r < 1 = strong correlation.

If r = l = perfect correlation.
How to compute the simple correlation
coefficient (r)

 xy   x y
r n
 ( x) 2
 ( y) 
2
x 
2 .  y 
2 
 n  n 
  
 :Example
A sample of 6 children was selected, data about their
age in years and weight in kilograms was recorded as
shown in the following table . It is required to find the
correlation between age and weight.

serial Age Weight

No (years) (Kg)
1 7 12
2 6 8
3 8 12
4 5 10
5 6 11
6 9 13
These 2 variables are of the quantitative type, one
variable (Age) is called the independent and
denoted as (X) variable and the other (weight)
is called the dependent and denoted as (Y)
variables to find the relation between age and
weight compute the simple correlation coefficient
using the following formula:

 xy   x y
r  n
 ( x) 2
 ( y)2 
  x2  .  y 
2 
 n  n 
  
 Age Weight
Serial
(years) (Kg) xy X2 Y2
.n
(x) (y)
1 7 12 84 49 144
2 6 8 48 36 64
3 8 12 96 64 144
4 5 10 50 25 100
5 6 11 66 36 121
6 9 13 117 81 169
Total =x∑ =y∑ xy=∑ =x2∑ =y2∑
41 66 461 291 742
 41 66
461 
r 6
 (41)2   (66)2 
 291   . 742  
 6  6 

r = 0.759
strong direct correlation
 EXAMPLE: Relationship between Anxiety and
Test Scores
Anxiety Test X2 Y2 XY
)X( score (Y)
10 2 100 4 20
8 3 64 9 24
2 9 4 81 18
1 7 1 49 7
5 6 25 36 30
6 5 36 25 30
X = 32∑ Y = 32∑ X2 = 230∑ Y2 = 204∑ XY=129∑
 Calculating Correlation Coefficient

(6)(129)  (32)(32) 774  1024

r   .94
6(230)  32 6(204)  32 
2 2
(356)(200)

r = - 0.94

Indirect strong correlation

 Exercise
As a fresh graduate, you have been tasked to investigate the cause of the failure in 

mathematics in secondary schools. Some research has mentioned that class size
greatly affects the performance of pupils in mathematics and science. Based on the
:following data presented to you
Avg. Mark in
Class Size Math
20 70
Determine
25 70
whether the
50 63
size of the class 10 85
affects the 70 50
performance 40 66
positively or 43 60
negatively. 70 55
45 63
 Regression Analyses

Regression: technique concerned with predicting

some variables by knowing others

The process of predicting variable Y using

variable X
 Regression
 Uses a variable (x) to predict some outcome
variable (y)
 Tells you how values in y change as a function
of changes in values of x
 Correlation and Regression
 Correlation describes the strength of a linear
relationship between two variables
 Linear means “straight line”

 Regression tells us how to draw the straight line

described by the correlation
 Regression
 Calculates the “best-fit” line for a certain set of data
The regression line makes the sum of the squares of
the residuals smaller than for any other line
Regression minimizes residuals
220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80
Wt (kg)
60 70 80 90 100 110 120
By using the least squares method (a procedure
that minimizes the vertical deviations of plotted
points surrounding a straight line) we are
able to construct a best fitting straight line to the
scatter diagram points and then formulate a
regression equation in the form of:

ŷ a  bX

 x y
 xy  n
a y  bx bb1 
(  x) 2
 x 2

n
Regression Equation

 Regression equation
describes the regression
SBP(mmHg)
line mathematically220
 Intercept 200

180
 Slope
160

140

120

100

80
Wt (kg)
60 70 80 90 100 110 120
 Linear
Linear Equations
Equations
Y
ŷY =bX
a +bX
a
Change
b = Slope in Y
Change in X
a = Y-intercept
X
Hours studying and
grades
Regressing grades on hours


Linear Regression


90.00 Final grade in course = 59.95 + 3.17 * study
R-Square = 0.88




80.00  

70.00  

2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00

Number of hours spent studying

Predicted final grade in class =

59.95 + 3.17*(number of hours you study per week)
Predicted final grade in class = 59.95 + 3.17*(hours of study)

…Predict the final grade of

 Someone who studies for 12 hours

 Final grade = 59.95 + (3.17*12)
 Final grade = 97.99

 Someone who studies for 1 hour:

 Final grade = 59.95 + (3.17*1)
 Final grade = 63.12
Example
A sample of 6 persons was selected the
value of their age ( x variable) and their
weight is demonstrated in the following
table. Find the regression equation and
what is the predicted weight when age is
8.5 years.
Example

.Serial no Age (x) Weight (y)

1 7 12
2 6 8
3 8 12
4 5 10
5 6 11
6 9 13
Answer

.Serial no Age (x) Weight (y) xy X2 Y2

1 7 12 84 49 144
2 6 8 48 36 64
3 8 12 96 64 144
4 5 10 50 25 100
5 6 11 66 36 121
6 9 13 117 81 169

Total 41 66 461 291 742

Answer
41 66
x  6.83 y  11
6 6

41 66
461 
b 6 0.92
2
(41)
291 
6
Answer

ŷ (x) 4.7164  0.92x

ŷ (8.5) 4.7164  0.92 * 8.5 12.54Kg

ŷ (7.5) 4.7164  0.92 * 7.5 11.62Kg

 12.6
12.4
Weight (in Kg)

12.2
12
11.8
11.6
11.4
7 7.5 8 8.5 9
Age (in years)

we create a regression line by plotting two

estimated values for y against their X component,
then extending the line right and left.
Example 2
Age B.P Age B.P
(x) (y) (x) (y)
20 120 46 128
The following are the
age (in years) and 43 128 53 136
systolic blood 63 141 60 146
pressure of 20 26 126 20 124
apparently healthy 53 134 63 143
adults.
31 128 43 130
58 136 26 124
46 132 19 121
58 140 31 126
70 144 23 123
Find the correlation between age
and blood pressure using simple
and Spearman's correlation
coefficients, and comment.
Find the regression equation?
What is the predicted blood
pressure for a man aging 25 years?
Answer

Serial x y xy x2
1 20 120 2400 400
2 43 128 5504 1849
3 63 141 8883 3969
4 26 126 3276 676
5 53 134 7102 2809
6 31 128 3968 961
7 58 136 7888 3364
8 46 132 6072 2116
9 58 140 8120 3364
10 70 144 10080 4900
Answer
Serial x y xy x2
11 46 128 5888 2116
12 53 136 7208 2809
13 60 146 8760 3600
14 20 124 2480 400
15 63 143 9009 3969
16 43 130 5590 1849
17 26 124 3224 676
18 19 121 2299 361
19 31 126 3906 961
20 23 123 2829 529
11448 4167
 Answer
 x y 114486 
852 2630
 xy  n 20
b1  0.4547
(  x) 2 = 852 2

 x2  41678 
n 20

ŷ =112.13 + 0.4547 x

for age 25
B.P = 112.13 + 0.4547 * 25=123.49 = 123.5 mm hg
 Exercise
As a fresh graduate, you have been tasked to investigate the cause of the failure in 

mathematics in secondary schools. Some research has mentioned that class size
greatly affects the performance of pupils in mathematics and science. Based on the
:following data presented to you
Avg. Mark in
Class Size Math

Using regression 20 70
analysis, 25 70
determine the 50 63
average 10 85
performance of 70 50
the class with the 40 66
size of 27. 43 60
70 55
45 63