CHAPTER 2

SAMPLING AND ESTIMATION

PART 2
2.3 Unbiased Estimates OF Population Parameters
2
In order to define a binomial distribution, you need to know to define a Poisson distribution
you need to know and to define a normal distribution you need to know These are known
as the population parameters of the distributions. Suppose that you do not know the value of
a particular parameter of a distribution, for example the mean or the variance or the
proportion of successes. It seems sensible that you would take a random sample from the
distribution and use it in some. way to make an estimate of the value of your unknown
parameter. This estimate is unbiased if the average (or expectation) of a large number of
values taken in the same way is the true value of the parameter. There may be several ways
of obtaining an unbiased estimate but the best (most efficient) estimate is the one with the
smallest variance. 03/16/2025
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2.3.1 Point Estimates

If the random sample taken is of size ,
the best unbiased estimate of , the proportion of successes in the population, is ,where
is the proportion of the successes in the sample.

the best unbiased estimate of , the population mean, is ,where

is the mean of the sample

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the best unbiased estimate of , the population variance, is where
is the variance of the sample
There are alternative formats for :

or

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Example 2.8
5
A railway enthusiast simulates train journeys and records the number of minutes x, to the
nearest minute, trains are late according to the schedule being used. A random sample of 50
journeys gave the following times.
17 5 3 10 4 3 10 5 2 14

3 14 5 5 21 9 22 36 14 34

22 4 23 6 8 15 41 23 13 7

6 13 33 8 5 34 26 17 8 43

24 14 23 4 19 5 23 13 12 10

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Given that calculate to two decimal places, unbiased estimates of the mean and the variance
of the population from which this was drawn.

Example 2.8
For the data given in Example 2.7, estimate the proportion of trains that are more than 25
minutes late.

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2.4 Interval Estimates
Another way of using a sample value to give a good idea of an unknown population
parameter is to construct an interval, known as a confidence interval.
In general terms, this is an interval that has a specified probability of including the parameter.
The interval is usually written and the end- values, a and b, are known as confidence limits.
The probabilities most often used in confidence intervals are 90%, 95% and 99%. Suppose
you do not know the mean of a particular population and you want to work out a 95%
confidence interval for it.

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You8would need to construct an interval (a, b) so that . In this case, the probability that the
interval includes is 0.95 or 95%.
The interval that you construct uses the value of the mean of a random sample of size n
taken from the population. This mean is denoted by .

Before constructing your interval for , it is essential to ask the following questions.
- Is the distribution of the population normal or not?
- Do you know the variance of the population?
- Is the sample size large or small? Your answers will then determine how to proceed.
The following theory illustrates various situations.
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(a) Confidence interval for , the population mean
 of a normal population,
 with known variance
 using any size sample, large or small
Consider first how to calculate the end-values of the most commonly used interval, the 95%
confidence interval. The method can then be adapted for other levels of confidence. Note
that it is useful to be able to follow the theory for the derivation of the end-points, but in
practice you will probably only need to be able to apply the formula.

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 for random samples of size , if then

10
Therefore 95% confidence interval for is

Example 2.10
The mass of vitamin E in a capsule manufactured by a certain drug company is normally distributed
with standard deviation 0.042 mg. A random sample of five capsules was analysed and the mean mass
of vitamin E was found to be 5.12 mg. Calculate a symmetric 95% confidence interval for the
population mean mass of vitamin E per capsule. Give the values of the end-points of the interval
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correct to three significant figures.

(b). Confidence interval for , the population mean
 of11a non-normal population,
 with known variance
 using a large sample, say
In this case, since the sample size is large, the central limit theorem can be used.
is approximately normal and

If is the mean of a random sample of size , when is large ,taken from a non-normal
population with known variance ,
then a 95%% confidence interval for is given by

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Example 2.11
12
The heights of men in a particular district are distributed with mean and the standard
deviation . On the basis of the results obtained from a random sample of 100 men from
the district, the 95% confidence interval for was calculated and found to be
Calculate
(a) the value of the sample mean,
(b) the value of ,
(c) a symmetric 90% confidence interval for ·

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Example 2.12
The result X of a stress test is known to be a normally distributed random variable with
mean and standard deviation 1.3. It is required to have a 95% symmetrical confidence
interval for with total width less than 2. Find the least number of tests that should be
carried out to achieve this.

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(c) Confidence interval for , the population mean
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• of a normal or non-normal population,
• with unknown variance
• using a large sample, n
When calculating confidence intervals it is often the case that the population variance, , is
not known. Provided that the sample size, is large, ( say) it is permissible to use ,
the best unbiased estimate for .
Ideally the distribution of should be normal, but an approximate confidence interval can
also be given when the distribution of is not normal. Remember that in both cases, must
be large.

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then 95% confidence interval for is given by
15

Where , is the sample variance.

Or

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Example 2.13
The fuel consumption of a new model of car is being tested, In one trial, 50 cars chosen at
random, were driven under identical conditions and the distances, , covered on 1 litter of
petrol were recorded. The results gave the following totals:

Calculate a confidence interval for the mean petrol consumption, in kilometers per litter, of
cars of this type.

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Example 2.14
17
The height, , of each man in a random sample of 200 men living in the UK was measured, The
following results were obtained:

(a) Calculate unbiased estimates of the mean and variance of the heights of men living in the
UIC
(b) Determine an approximate 90% confidence interval for the mean height of men living in
the UK. Name the theorem that you have assumed.

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(d) Confidence interval for when
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 the population is normal
 is unknown,
 sample size is small,
When calculating confidence intervals, you have already encountered the situation when
large
samples () are taken from a normal population with unknown variance
For large samples,

But if the sample size is small no longer has a normal distribution.

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 For small samples,
where
19 has a distribution.

2.5 The -Distribution

The distribution of is a member of a family of t-distributions. All t-distributions are
symmetric about zero and have a single parameter (pronounced new) which is a positive
integer.
is known as the number of degrees of freedom of the distribution and if, for example, has
a t-distribution with five degrees of freedom, you would write
The diagram below shows two curves,
Note that as increases, the corresponding curve resembles the standardized normal
distribution In fact when , the difference between the distribution and the normal
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distribution is negligible.
For samples of size , it can be shown that
20

follows a t-distribution with (n -1) degrees of freedom.

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Example
22 2.15
Consider following a with degrees of freedom, i.e. and Find
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
Example 2.16
The random variable has a t-distribution with 14 degrees of freedom i e Find the value of for
which
(i) (ii)

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Example 2.17
The mass, in grams, of biscuits of a particular brand, follows a normal distribution with
mean . Ten packets of biscuits are chosen at random and their masses noted. The results, in
grams, are

These can be summarized as follows: .

Calculate a 95% confidence interval for .
Example 2.18
A student, studying the height of a particular plant, knows that it follows a normal
distribution with mean and variance a , but he does not know the value of either of these
parameters. He selects 15 plants at random, measures their heights and calculates that the
mean height of the sample is 12.2 cm and the standard deviation is 1.4 cm. Using these
values, calculate a 90% confidence interval for . Calculate also the width of this interval.
Confidence Intervals For The Population Proportion, P
Imagine that you want to find ,(the proportion of successes in a particular population. To
obtain an idea of its value, you could take a random sample of size n and calculate the
proportion of successes in your sample. This would give the best unbiased estimate , where .
You could also use this value of , to obtain an interval estimate of , known as a confidence
interval for .

The theory needed to derive the confidence interval for is based on the sampling distribution
of proportions, , This states that, provided the sample size n is large, the distribution of , is
normal, so
You are then able to find approximate confidence intervals for p as follows:
Example 2.19
A manufacturer wants to assess the proportion of defective items in a large batch
produced by a particular machine. He tests a random sample of 300 items and finds that
45 items are defective.
Calculate an approximate 95% confidence interval for the proportion of defective items
in the batch.
Example 2.20
In a random sample of 400 carpet shops, it was discovered that 136 of them sold carpets at
below the list prices recommended by the manufacturer.
(a) Estimate the percentage of all carpet shops selling below list price.
(b) Calculate an approximate 90% confidence interval for the proportion of shops that sell
below list price and explain briefly what this means.
(c) What size sample would have to be taken in order to estimate the percentage to within
confidence?