STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

Abraham Dinesh R
The Genesis of
Statistics
 You and I would have thought Statistics was a subject
developed as early as the 1900s.
 But who would have thought that it is as old as the
human society itself??
 Regarded as the ‘Science of Statecraft’, Statistics was a
by-product of the administrative activities of the
State/Government.
 The very root of this word means ‘political state’
 Latin: Status, Italian: Statista, German: Statistik
The Genesis of
Statistics
 It all began by taking census of the population.
 The earliest census recorded was taken in Babylon in
3800 BC.
 Followed by Egypt, China and the Middle East.
 This collection of census was seen in the reign of Chandra
Gupta Maurya around 300 BC.
 This vast collection of data about the population (census)
enabled the rulers/govt to have an idea on the manpower.
 This enabled the government to allocate and share
resources, manage livestock and levy taxes.
The Birth of Vital Statistics

 John Grant of London (1620 – 1674), the father of

Vital Statistics.
 He was the first man to study the statistics of
births and deaths.
 Life Insurance

1648- 1623- 1710- 1723-

Wrote a treatise based Despite being a physician, A mathematician, A mathematician and a
1715
on his observations of his 1687
professor, musician and an 1757
actuary and an innovator 1792
church minister, he wrote
city’s mortality rates. MP, he was a proponent of of the insurance industry. on the issues of
Influenced statistics and scientific methodologies to Also a friend of Abraham demography and finance,
other people of his day solve economic problems. de Moivre, a pioneer of and developed the field of
Also see political stats and prob. actuarial science.
arithmetic.
Caspar Sir William James
Dr. Price
Neumann Petty Dodson

Fact Alert!
The contribution of these and many more wise men led to the idea of life
insurance, and the first such institution was founded in 1698 in London!

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 Modern Statistics

The introduction of the Theory of

Probability in the mid-seventeenth
century developed modern statistics.

Numerical mathematicians including

Modern Pascal and Fermat contributed to the
building of Statistics!
Statistics

This rhetorical statement is an

evidence that statistics and
probability go hand-in-hand!

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 Definition of Statistics
Various people including mathematicians, statisticians, economists, even politicians define statistics differently.
This plurality in its definition is due to the fact that it is utilized in an extremely wide area of studies and due to its
dually defined perspectives: statistical data and statistical methods.

As Statistical Data
Webster: "classified facts representing the conditions of the
people in a State ... especially those facts which can be
stated in numbers or in any other tabular or classified
arrangement."
As Statistical Methods
Bowley: “science of counting, science of averages, science
of measurement of social organism, regarded as a whole in
all its manifestations.”

Boddington’s Definition
“Statistics is the science of estimates and probabilities.”

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The Most General Definition

“The science which deals with the collection,

analysis and interpretation of numerical
data.”

-Croxton and Cowden

This definition of statistics encompasses all the
aspects of statistics including its subtle nuances in
applications
 Importance of Statistics in Different Research Fields
Statistics is not just about collecting data, but predominantly about analyzing the collected data, and
drawing inferences from them to make valid decisions to have the desired outcome/impact.

Planning and Economics: In this age of planning, plans on

1 development and economic growth depend on sound analysis of

complex data to solve economic problems. Development of
economic theories and econometrics.
Business: Statistics is crucial in production control. The
2 success of a businessman depends on statistical forecasting in
terms of needs, demands, labour, etc. Eg: Garments, Apple
Inc., etc.
Math: Stats and math are very intimately related. Recent
3 advancements in statistics are the outcome of wide
applications of advanced mathematics. Connor said,
“Statistics is a branch of Applied Mathematics which
specialises in data.

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Medical Science: Statistical tools are used to collect,
present and analyse observed facts relating to the
causes and incidence of diseases and the results
obtained using various medicines, are of great
importance. Importantly, the efficacy of a medicine is
tested by using the test of significance, commonly
9 called, t-test.
 Applications of Statistics in Digital & Cyber Forensics (to name a
few)
Statistics provides the foundation for many analytical techniques and tools used in digital
and cyber forensics, enabling experts to analyze data systematically, detect anomalies,
and derive meaningful insights that are critical for investigating and preventing
cybercrimes.
Statistical models are used to analyze
the behaviour of suspected malware by
Behavioural
comparing it with known malware
signatures and behaviours. Analysis Statistical methods can be used to assess the
likelihood of certain events. For example, a
forensic examiner might use statistics to
determine the likelihood of a particular file being
deleted accidentally versus deleted intentionally to
Establishing erase the evidence. Factors such as file type, its
Likelihoods location on the device, and the user's recent
activity are analysed. Additionally, we make a
random match when comparing digital evidence,
Techniques like file attribution use statistical such as a fragment of a file or a registry entry. This
analysis of file characteristics like creation helps to ensure that the evidence truly relates to
and modification times. This can help the case and is not simply a coincidence.
File Dating
establish a timeline of events and potentially
link a file to a specific user or device.

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THANK YOU!