Probability

ILOs

In this section, we will cover…

• Randomness, Probability, and Simulation

• Mutually Exclusive Events and Venn Diagram

• Conditional probability and independence

1. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
• Relative frequency and probability

Consider toss a coin infinite times:

1. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation

Law of large numbers

• if we observe more and more repetitions of any chance process, the
proportion of times that a specific outcome occurs approaches a
single value. We call this value the probability.

• The probability of any outcome of a chance process is a number

between 0 and 1 that describes the proportion of times the outcome
would occur in a very long series of repetitions.
1. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
1. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
1. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
Which looks random?
Toss a coin six times and record heads (H) or tails (T) on each toss.
Which of the following outcomes is more probable?
HTHTTH TTTHHH
Although the latter looks less random.” In fact, both are equally likely.

• Probabilities describe only what happens in the long run.

1. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
• A simulation is an imitation of chance behavior, most often carried
out with random numbers. To perform a simulation, follow the four-
step process:
① STATE: Ask a question of interest about some chance process.
② PLAN: Describe how to use a chance device to imitate one
repetition of the process. Tell what you will record at the end of
each repetition.
③ DO: Perform many repetitions of the simulation.
④ CONCLUDE: Use the results of your simulation to answer the
question of interest.
1. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation
Simulation
① PLAN
What’s the probability that 3 or more of 7 people win a prize if each individual
has a 1/6 chance of winning?
② STATE
Use a six-sided die to determine the outcome for each person’s bottle of soda. 6
= wins a prize 1 to 5 = no prize
③ DO
Have each student perform several repetitions.
④ CONCLUDE
Out of 125 total repetitions of the simulation, there were 15 times when three
or more of the seven people won a prize. So our estimate of the probability is
15/125, or about 12%. It seems plausible that the company is telling the truth.
1. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation-Practice
Explain what’s wrong with each of the following simulation designs.

I. A roulette wheel has 38 colored slots—18 red, 18 black, and 2 green. To simulate
one spin of the wheel, let numbers 00 to 18 represent red, 19 to 37 represent
black, and 38 to 40 represent green.

II. About 10% of U.S. adults are left-handed. To simulate randomly selecting one
adult at a time until you find a left-hander, use two digits. Let 00 to 09 represent
being left-handed and 10 to 99 represent being right-handed. Move across a row
in Table D, two digits at a time, skipping any numbers that have already
appeared, until you find a number between 00 and 09. Record the number of
people selected.
1. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation-Practice

Determine whether each of the following simulation designs is valid. Justify your answer.

I. According to a recent poll, 75% of American adults regularly recycle. To simulate

choosing a random sample of 100 U.S. adults and seeing how many of them recycle,

roll a 4-sided die 100 times. A result of 1, 2, or 3 means the person recycles; a 4

means that the person doesn’t recycle.

II. An archer hits the center of the target with 60% of her shots. To simulate having her

shoot 10 times, use a coin. Flip the coin once for each of the 10 shots. If it lands

heads, then she hits the center of the target. If the coin lands tails, she doesn’t.
1. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation-Practice
In a shooting competition, a shooter claims she can make 47% shot.
Suppose this player attempts 10 shots in a game and only makes 3 of
them.
Does this provide convincing evidence that she is less than a 47%
shooter?
A. Yes, because 3/10 (30%) is less than 47%.
B. Yes, because she never made 47% of her shots in the simulation.
C. No, because it is plausible that she would make 3 or fewer shots by
chance alone.
D. No, because the simulation was only repeated 10 times.
E. No, because the distribution is approximately symmetric.
1. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation-Practice

Homework:
Page 303
Multiple choice: Select the best answer for Exercises 31 to 36.
2. Probability Rules

Probability Models

• Modelling is to simplify a complicated realistic problems into simple

mathematics systems.
Probability Models consists:
① A list of possible outcomes
② A probability for each outcome
2. Probability Rules
• The sample space S of a chance process is the set of all possible
outcomes.
• A probability model is a description of some chance process that
consists of sample space S and a probability for each outcome.

Let’s look at how to set up a probability model in a familiar setting:

rolling a pair of dice.
2. Probability Rules

• The 36 possible outcomes in rolling two dice. All of these outcomes have the same
probability.
2. Probability Rules
• A probability model also allows us to find the probability of any
collection of outcomes, which we call an event.
• An event is any collection of outcomes from some chance process.
That is, an event is a subset of the sample space. Events are usually
designated by capital letters, like A, B, C, and so on.
• If A is any event, we write its probability as P(A). In the dice-rolling
example, suppose we define event A as “sum is 5.” There are four
outcomes corresponding to event A:
2. Probability Rules

Basic Rules of Probability

• The probability of any event is a number between 0 and 1.

• All possible outcomes together must have probabilities that add up to 1.

• The probability that an event does not occur is 1 minus the probability
that the event does occur. We refer to the event “not ” as the
complement of and denote it by .
2. Probability Rules
• If all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely, the probability
that event A occurs can be found using the formula

For example , an event A as “sum of two dice is 5.”

2. Probability Rules

U • If A and B are mutually exclusive then:

A B

Mutually Exclusive Events

2. Probability Rules
Venn Diagrams and Probability
2. Probability Rules
Venn Diagrams and Probability
2. Probability Rules
2. Probability Rules
2. Probability Rules

A B

“Non-mutually Exclusive Events”

2. Probability Rules
 2. Probability Rules
In an apartment complex, 40% of residents read USA Today. Only 25% read
the New York Times. Five percent of residents read both papers. Suppose we
select a resident of the apartment complex at random and record which of the
two papers the person reads.

Problem:
I. Make a two-way table that displays the sample space of this chance process.
II. Construct a Venn diagram to represent the outcomes of this chance process.
III. Find the probability that the person reads at least one of the two papers.
IV. Find the probability that the person doesn’t read either paper.
2. Probability Rules
Practice :
Multiple choice: Select the best answer for Exercises 57 to 60.
3. Independent events and the multiplication law

• Two events are said to be independent if either can occur without being affected by
the occurrence of the other.

U
U1 U2
This can be extended for any number of independent events:

AA B

B
3. Independent events and the multiplication law

• Consider rolling an ordinary fair die and the events X and Y, as defined below.

X: the outcome is a square number (1 or 4).

Y: the outcome is an odd number (1, 3 or 5).

Are X and Y mutually exclusive? Are they independent?

3. Independent events and the multiplication law
3. Independent events and the multiplication law
3. Conditional Probability and Independence
3. Conditional Probability and Independence
3. Conditional Probability and Independence

 What’s the probability that a randomly selected resident who reads USA
Today also reads the New York Times?
3. Conditional Probability and Independence
4. Conditional probability
4. Conditional probability
4. Conditional probability
5. Dependent events and conditional probability

An ordinary fair die is rolled. Find the probability that the number obtained is prime,
given that it is odd.
5. Dependent events and conditional probability

A boy walks to school (W) 60% of the time and cycles (C) 40% of the time. He is late to
school (L) on 5% of the occasions that he walks, and he is late on 2% of the occasions
that he cycles.

Given that he is late to school, find the probability that he cycles

5. Dependent events and conditional probability

A bag contains five 4cm nails, six 7 cm nails and nine 10cm nails.

Find the probability that two randomly selected nails: a have a total length of 14 cm
b are both 7 cm long, given that they have a total length of 14cm.