CENTRAL THEORE

LIMIT M
• If samples of size are randomly selected from
a population with mean and variance , the
sampling distribution of the sample means will
approach a normal distribution even when the
original population is not normally distributed,
as long as the sample size n is sufficiently
large.
• According to some statistician a sample size
of 30 or more is large enough. If the
distribution of a population is almost normal,
even the sample size of can be used to
• For a normal population with known variance,
the variance, the sampling distribution of the
sample means are normally distributed for
any sample size.
• If the population variance is unknown,
samples of size can still be drawn from the
population, and the mean of the sampling
distribution of the means can still be
determined.
• The population mean can then be estimated
Example
1.
Consider a population consisting of the values 1,
2, 3, and 4.

1. Compute the following:

a. Population mean
b. Population variance
c. Population standard deviation
2. Draw the probability histogram of the
population.
Solution
Observatio
n
1 1 -1.5 2.25
2 2 -0.5 0.25
3 3 0.5 0.25
4 4 1.5 2.25
Solution
c.

Note:
Th population mean can also be obtained using
probabilities.
𝑷(𝒙)
𝟏
𝟒 The histogram has a uniform
𝟏
𝟒
distribution and does not
𝟏 approximate a normal curve.
𝟒
𝟏
𝟒
𝒙
1 2 3 4 5 6
Example
2.
Consider all possible samples of size 2 that can
be drawn with replacement from the population
1, 2, 3, and 4.
1. Compute the following:
a. Mean of the sampling distribution of the
means.
b. Variance of the sampling distribution of
the means
c. Standard deviation of the sampling
distribution of the means.
Observatio Sample
n
1 (1,1) 1 -1.5 2.25
2 (1,2) 1.5 -1.0 1.00
3 (1,3) 2 -0.5 0.25
4 (1,4) 2.5 0.0 0.00
5 (2,1) 1.5 -1.5 2.25
6 (2,2) 2 -0.5 0.25
7 (2,3) 2.5 0.0 0.00
8 (2,4) 3 0.5 0.25
9 (3,1) 2 -0.5 0.25
10 (3,2) 2.5 0.0 0.00
11 (3,3) 3 0.5 0.25
12 (3,4) 3.5 1.0 1.00
13 (4,1) 2.5 0.0 0.00
14 (4,2) 3 0.5 0.25
15 (4,3) 3.5 1.0 1.00
Solution

c.
Sampling Distribution of with Replacement
Probability
1 1
1.5 2
2 3
2.5 4
3 3
3.5 2
4 1
The probability histogram of the sampling
distribution of when
𝟒
𝟏𝟔
𝟑
𝟏𝟔
𝟐
𝟏𝟔
𝟏
𝟏𝟔
𝒙
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Central Limit
Theorem
• If samples of size n where is sufficiently
large, are drawn from any population with a
mean and a standard deviation then the
sampling distribution of sample means
approximates a normal distribution.
• The sampling distribution of the sample
means taken with replacement from a
population N with population mean and
variance will approach a normal distribution.
Central Limit
Theorem
1. As the sample size increases, the sampling
distribution of the means approaches a normal
distribution.
2. The mean of the sampling distribution of means
is equal to the mean of the population.
3. The variance of the sampling distribution of
means is equal to the variance of the population
divided by the sample size .
4. The standard deviation of the sampling
distribution of means is equal to the standard
deviation of the population divided by the square
FYI
The French-born mathematician
Abraham de Moivre (1667 – 1754)
proved the first version of the Central
Limit Theorem. He used the normal
distribution to approximate the
distribution of the number of heads that
will result when a fair coin is tossed a
large number of Buttimes.
it was the Russian mathematician,
mechanician, and physicist, Aleksander
Lyapunov (1857 – 1918) who gave the
first rigorous proof of the general Central
Limit Theorem.
Point and Interval Estimation

Point estimation is the process of finding a

single value, called point estimate, from a
random sample of the population, to
approximate a population parameter.
The sample mean is the point estimate of the
population mean and is the point estimate of
population variance
Example
1
The sample mean is 45.12 and the population
mean is 46.51. What is the point estimate of
the given data?
Answer:
The point estimate is
45.12
A good point estimate is one that is unbiased. If
random sampling was done in the collection of a set
of data, and a sample mean is computed out of
these data to approximate the population mean,
then the point estimate is a good point estimate.
 Example
2A teacher wanted to determine the average
height of Grade 11 students in their school.
What he did was he go to one of the 17
sections and then took their heights. He
computed for the mean height of the students
and got 165 cm. Is 165 a good point estimate
Answer:
of the
165 is population?
not a good Why?
point estimate of the
population mean. The teacher should have
randomly selected the members of his sample
from the entire population.
• A researcher should not expect the point
estimate to be exactly equal to the
population parameter. However, any point
estimate used should be as close as possible
to the true parameters.
• Data should be carefully collected.
• Sampling should be done at random, and
the sample size should be large especially
when the population distribution is not
normal
Confidence
Interval
It uses interval estimate to define a range of
values that includes the parameter being
estimated with a specified level of confidence.
Confidence
Level
Refers to the probability that the confidence interval
contains the true population parameter. Its value is

Where is the probability that the confidence interval does

not contain the true population parameter.
The value of alpha corresponds to the level of
significance. The value of alpha can be
arbitrarily chosen. Any number between 0 and
1 can be used for alpha but 0.10, 0.05, and
0.01 are those ones that are commonly used.

A 95% confidence level implies that the

probability of the confidence interval
containing the true population parameter is
95%.
Critical
Value
The value that indicates the point beyond
which lies the rejection region. This region
does not contain the true population
parameter.
The values of z can be found in the Areas
Under the Normal Curve table.
 Interval Estimate of Population Mean
with Known Variance

Formula for interval estimate of

population mean when population
variance is known and

( 𝑥− 𝑧𝛼 ,𝑥+𝑧 𝛼
2
𝜎
2 √𝑛
)𝑜𝑟 𝑥 − 𝑧 𝛼
𝜎
2 √𝑛
<𝜇 < 𝑥+ 𝑧 𝛼
𝜎
2 √𝑛
For a specific value, the distribution of is:

𝛼=0.05

𝛼
𝛼 = 0.025
=− 0.025 2
2
95
%
−𝑧𝛼
2
𝜎
√𝑛 𝜇 𝑧𝛼
2
𝜎
√𝑛
The confidence interval can be written as:

Where:

To find the margin of error, use the formula:

Example
1The mean score of a random sample of 49
Grade 11 students who took the exam is
calculated to be 78. The population variance is
known to be 0.16.
a. Find the 95% confidence interval for the
mean of the entire Grade 11 students.
b. Find the lower and upper confidence limits.
Solution
Step 1. find the
value of
Given:

Subtract from
find the z score using this area in the table of
normal curve table.
Solution
Step 2. Find , then find the margin of
error.
Solution
Step 3. Substitute the value of and in
the confidence interval.

Lower confidence Upper confidence

limit limit
 Confidence
Level

𝛼
𝛼 = 0.025
=− 0.025 2
2
0.95

−1.96 𝑧 =0 1.96
Example
2Assuming normality, use the given confidence level
and sample data below to find the following:
a. Margin of error
b. Confidence interval for estimating the population
parameter.
Given data:

confidence level
Solution
Step 1. find the
value of
Subtract from

The area is between under column headed and under column

headed . Move to the left along this row until under column
headed is reached. Therefore
Solution
Step 2. Find the margin of error.
Solution
Step 3. Find the confidence interval.

Lower confidence Upper confidence

limit limit
Alternative formula for determining
the Margin of Error
 Confidence
Level

𝛼
𝛼 = 0.025
=− 0.025 2
2
0.99

−2.575 𝑧 =0 2.575
Common Confidence Levels with
their Corresponding Reliability
Factor
Confidence
Level
2.575
1.96
1.645
Estimating the Difference between Two
Population Means
The point estimate for the difference of two
population means is . To obtain this point
estimate, select two independent random
samples, one from each population with size
and then, compute the difference between
their means.
Confidence interval can be written as:

Margin of Error:
Example 1
Two groups of students in Grade 11 were subjected to
two different teaching techniques. After a month, they
were given exactly the same test. A random sample of
60 students were selected in the first group and another
random sample of 50 students were selected in the
second group. The sampled students in the first group
made an average of 84 with a standard deviation of 8,
while the sampled students in the second group made
an average of 78, with a standard deviation of 6. Find
the 95% confidence interval for the difference in the
population means. The mean score of all students in the
first group is , and the mean score of the second group
Solution
Step 1. Write the given
information:
Population 1 Population 2

2 2 2 2
𝜎 1 =(8) = 64 𝜎 2 =(6) = 36
Solution
Step 2. Find the
Confidence level is 95%
value of Confidence Level
2.575
𝑧 𝛼 =1.96 1.96
2 1.645
Solution
Step 3. Find the margin of error
Solution
Step 4. Find the confidence interval.
Example 2
Independent random samples were selected from two
populations. The sample means, known population
variance, and sample sizes are given in the following
table. Population1 Population 2
Sample mean 34 38
Population variance 5 7
Sample size 40 46

Find the 90% confidence interval for estimating the

difference in the population means.
Solution
Step 1. Write the given
information:
Population 1 Population 2
Solution
Step 2. Find the
Confidence level is 90%
value of Confidence Level
2.575
1.96
𝑧 𝛼 =1.645 1.645
2
Solution
Step 3. Find the margin of error
Solution
Step 4. Find the confidence interval.
Sample Size for Estimating Population
Mean
• The size of the sample is important in estimating the

[ ]
population mean.
𝑧 𝜎
2
𝛼
2
𝑛=
𝐸
Example 1.
Find the minimum sample size required to estimate an unknown
population mean using the following given data:
b.
Solution
a. Step 1. Find the value of
Confidence level is 95% Confidence Level
2.575
𝑧 𝛼 =1.96 1.96
2
1.645
Solution
a. Step
2.

Thus, the
minimum sample
size required to
estimate an
unknown
population mean
using the given
Solution
b. Step 1. Find the value of
Confidence level is 90% Confidence Level
2.575
𝑧 𝛼 =1.645 1.96
2
1.645
Solution
a. Step
2.

Thus, the
minimum sample
size required to
estimate an
unknown
population mean
using the given
 t-
• Distribution
The t-distribution is a bell-shaped and
unimodal like the standard normal
distribution.
• It is symmetric about
• Its variance is greater than .
• It is wider and flatter in the middle.
• It has more area in its tails than that
of the standard normal curve.
• As the sample size becomes larger,
the t-distribution gets closer to the
standard normal distribution.
 t-
• Distribution
It is used with small samples taken from population that is
approximately normal.
• The is used when while is used when

Where:
- sample mean s – standard
deviation of the sample mean
– population mean n – sample size.
Degrees of Freedom ()
• To find a value in the table of t-critical values, there is a
need to adjust the sample size n by converting it to degrees
of freedom.

• The number of degrees of freedom is equal to the number of

the remaining values in a data set that are free to vary after
one or more values have been deducted.
𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛− 1
 Example 1
A student researcher wants to determine whether the mean
score in Statistics of the 25 students in Grade 11 section
Anthropology is significantly different from the average of the
school which is 89. The mean and the standard deviation of
the scores of the students are 95 and 15 respectively. Assume
Solution.
a 95% confidence level.
Step 1. Find the degrees of Step 2. Find the critical value.
freedom. Use the table of
Look at 24 under column headed df.
Move to the right along the row until
reaching the column headed 0.05,
area in two tails or 0.025 for area in
one tail. The critical value is 2.064
Solution
Step 3. Compute the test
statistic
The computed
value of tis equal
to 2 which is
smaller than the
t-critical value of
Critical 2.064
region
22.064
The value of the test statistic or computed t-value does not fall in the
critical region. Therefore, the mean score of 25 students is the same with
the mean score of all the students taking up Statistic.
Example 2
A student suspects that the data she collected
for research study do not represent the target
population. Here are the data she collected.
16 27 34 20
29
30 22 30 37
25
30 42 26 32
35
The population mean is 27. Assuming normality
Solution
Step 1. Find the sample mean and
the sample standard deviation.
 Solution Step 4. Compute the test
Step 2. Find the degree of freedom statistic.

Step 3. Find the critical value. at Therefore, the student

Look at 14 under column headed df. is wrong in suspecting
Move to the right along the row until that the data are not
reaching the column headed 0.05 for representative of the
one tail and 0.10 for two tails. The target population.
critical value is 1.761
Available App to
use.