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Probability,Lecture 3

The document discusses various probability concepts including marginal probability, conditional probability, independent and dependent events, and the multiplication rule for joint probability. It also covers the union of events, Bayes' theorem, and provides examples related to real-life scenarios such as fire detectors and cab accidents. Key formulas and calculations are presented to illustrate these concepts.

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adnan sami anik
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2 views

Probability,Lecture 3

The document discusses various probability concepts including marginal probability, conditional probability, independent and dependent events, and the multiplication rule for joint probability. It also covers the union of events, Bayes' theorem, and provides examples related to real-life scenarios such as fire detectors and cab accidents. Key formulas and calculations are presented to illustrate these concepts.

Uploaded by

adnan sami anik
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Probability

Marginal Probability, Conditional Probability,


and Related Probability Concepts
• Marginal probability: Marginal probability is the probability of a single event
without consideration of any other event. Marginal probability is also called
simple probability.
Marginal probability
Conditional Probability
Calculation of Conditional Probability
Tree Diagram for Conditional
Probability
Mutually Exclusive Events
Y = this adult has shopped on the Internet at least once
N = this adult has never shopped on the Internet
Independent Events
• P(A B) =P(A) or P(B A) = P(B)

Dependent Events
• P(A B) ≠ P(A) or P(B A) ≠ P(B)
Dependence of Events

• Are events “female (F)” and “in favor (A)” independent?


P(F) = P(F A)

P(F) = 40/100 = 0.40 and P(F A) = 4/19 = 0.2105


Intersection of Events

A = event that a family owns a DVD player


B = event that a family owns a digital camera
Multiplication Rule
• Joint Probability: intersection of two events
P(A and B)

P(A and B)=P(A)P(B A)=P(B)P(A B) = P(A∩B) or P(AB)


College Not a College Total
Graduate (G) Graduate (N)
Male (M) 7 20 27
Female (F) 4 9 13
Total 11 29 40

What is the probability that this employee


is a female and a college graduate?

P(F and G) = P(F)P(G F)


P(F) = 13/40; P(G F)=4/13
Multiplication Rule for
Independent Event
• P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
An office building has two fire detectors. The probability is .02 that any
fire detector of this type will fail to go off during a fire. Find the
probability that both of these fire detectors will fail to go off in case of a
fire.
A =the first fire detector fails to go off during a fire
B = the second fire detector fails to go off during a fire
P(A and B)=P(A)P(B)=0.02*0.02
• What will be the Joint probability for Mutually Exclusive Events?
Union of Events
• A or B
A senior citizens center has 300 members. Of them, 140 are male, 210
take at least one medicine on a permanent basis, and 95 are male and
take at least one medicine on a permanent basis.
Describe the union of the events “male” and “take at least one
medicine on a permanent basis.”

P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B)


• What will be the Additional rule for Mutually Exclusive Events
An electrical system consists of four components as illustrated in the Figure. The system works if components
A and B work and either of the components C or D works. The reliability (probability of working) of each
component is also shown in the Figure.
Find the probability that
(a) the entire system works and
(b) The component C does not work, given that the entire system works.
Assume that the four components work independently.
Bayes Theorem:
• Suppose sample space has been partitioned in to “n”
mutually exclusive events. B is an event having
intersection with all those mutually excusive events
B

A2 A3 A4
A1 An
P( Ai ) P( B | Ai )
P( Ai | B) 
P( A1 ) P ( B | A1 )  P ( A2 ) P ( B | A2 )  ...  P( An ) P ( B | An )

P( B | Ak ) P( Ak )
P( Ak | B )  n

 P( B | A ) P( A )
i 1
i i
• A lot of products is produced by three machines A1, A2, A3. One unit from the lot is selected at random and found
defective.
 What is the probability that the unit was produced by M/C A2?
 What is the Probability that a randomly selected product is defective?
Use the following information
M/C % Production Defective Items
A1 40% 5%
A2 45% 10%
A3 15% 1%

P(A1) =0.4; P(A2)=0.45;P(A3)=0.15;P(B A1)=0.05;P(B A2)= 0.10;P(B A3)=0.01

P(A2∩B)
P(A2 B)= =0.677
P(B A1)P(A1)+P(B A2)P(A2)+P(B A3)P(A3)
A cab was involved in hit-and-run accident. Two cab companies serve
the city; the Green which operates 85 percent of the cabs, and the
Blue, which operates the remaining 15 percent. A witness identifies the
hit-and-run can as Blue. When the court tests the reliability of the
witness under circumstances similar to those on the night of the
accident, he correctly identifies the color of a cab 80 percent of the
time, and misidentifies it the other 20 percent.
What’s the probability that the cab involved in the accident was Blue,
as the witness stated?
Answer:

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