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Lecture 4-Counting Techniques and Probability

The document discusses counting techniques in probability, including fundamental counting rules, permutations, and combinations. It provides examples to illustrate how to calculate the number of outcomes in various scenarios, such as arranging items and selecting groups. Additionally, it touches on Baye's Theorem and its application in conditional probability problems.

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Januario da Costa
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12 views26 pages

Lecture 4-Counting Techniques and Probability

The document discusses counting techniques in probability, including fundamental counting rules, permutations, and combinations. It provides examples to illustrate how to calculate the number of outcomes in various scenarios, such as arranging items and selecting groups. Additionally, it touches on Baye's Theorem and its application in conditional probability problems.

Uploaded by

Januario da Costa
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Joao Saldanha University/Inst

Elementary Statistics
(STATS 1)
Lecture 5: Counting
Techniques

Lecturer: Januario da Costa, PhD Cand.


Email: [email protected]
Counting Techniques
Key Concept

In many probability problems, the big obstacle is finding the


total number of outcomes, and this section presents several
methods for finding such numbers without directly listing and
counting the possibilities.
EXAMPLE:
1. Let's imaging, Celeste is in desperate need of money,
therefore she went out and buy SDSB to try her luck. She
aimed at winning BOLA MERAH which $2000 if you $1 with
four number combinations. What is the probability that
Celeste
In order will win BOLAthe
to calculate MERAH?
probability of this, we need to know
how many possible 4 number combination are there?
Counting techniques is used to know how many possible
combination for a certain procedure.
Fundamental Counting Rule

For a sequence of two events in which the


first event can occur m ways and the
second event can occur n ways, the events
together can occur a total of mn ways.
2. You are taking your family to lunch at a restaurant. In the menu there
are 3 types of chicken Dishes, 4 types of vegetable dishes, 2 types of
pork dishes and 3 types of beef dishes. If you were to select one dish
from every group of dishes, how possible dish combination can you have?
Notation

The factorial symbol ! denotes the product of


decreasing positive whole numbers.
For example,

4! 4 3 2 1 24
By special definition, 0! = 1.
Factorial Rule

Number of different permutations (order


counts) of n different items can be arranged
when all n of them are selected. (This factorial
rule reflects the fact that the first item may be
selected in n different ways, the second item
may be selected in n – 1 ways, and so on.)
3. Find the factorials of the following
a. 3! b. (5-2)! c. 5! + 2! d. e. 5! *
2!
4. Find the number of different ways that five test questions
can be arranged in order.

5. Find the number of different ways that the 3 players on a


basketball team can line up for the National Anthem
Permutations Rule
(when items are all different)
Requirements:
1. There are n different items available. (This rule does not apply if
some of the items are identical to others.)
2. We select r of the n items (without replacement).
3. We consider rearrangements of the same items to be different
sequences. (The permutation of ABC is different from CBA and
is counted separately.)
If the preceding requirements are satisfied, the number of
permutations (or sequences) of r items selected from n available
items (without replacement) is

n!
n Pr 
(n  r )!
Permutations Rule
(when some items are identical to others)
Requirements:
1. There are n items available, and some items are identical to
others.
2. We select all of the n items (without replacement).
3. We consider rearrangements of distinct items to be different
sequences.

If the preceding requirements are satisfied, and if there are n1 alike, n2


alike, . . . nk alike, the number of permutations (or sequences) of all
items selected without replacement is

n!
n1 !n2 ! nk !
Combinations Rule
Requirements:
1. There are n different items available.
2. We select r of the n items (without replacement).
3. We consider rearrangements of the same items to be the same.
(The combination of ABC is the same as CBA.)

If the preceding requirements are satisfied, the number of


combinations of r items selected from n different items is

n!
n Cr 
(n  r )!r !
Permutations versus
Combinations

When different orderings of the same items


are to be counted separately, we have a
permutation problem, but when different
orderings are not to be counted separately,
we have a combination problem.
PERMUTATIONS EXAMPLE:

6. In How many ways can you arrange two letters from the
word “LOVE”?

7. How many ways can we award a 1st, 2nd , and 3rd place prize among
eight contestant? (GOLD/SILVER/BRONZE)
8. How many ways can you arrange 4 number combinations of
4 digits master lock?
9. In how many ways can you arrange the word STATISTICS?

10. In horse racing, a bet on an exacta in a race is won by correctly


selecting the horses that finish first and second, and you must select
those two horses in the correct order. The 132nd running of the Kentucky
Derby had a field of 20 horses. If a bettor randomly selects two of those
horses for an exacta bet, what is the probability of winning?
COMBINATORICS EXAMPLE:

11. In how many ways can you select 3 engineers from a pool of 15
engineers?

12. Find the number of different possible five-card poker hands?


13. In How many ways a committee consisting of 5 men and 3
women can be chosen from 9 men and 12 women
14. There are 10 students in your class, but you can invite only 5
to your birthday party. How many different combinations of
friends could you invite? Explain whether to use combinations or
permutations.

15. At a party there are 75 people. Everybody shakes everybody’s hand


once. How often are hands shaken in total? Hint: How many people are
involved in shaking hands?
Probability Through
Simulations
A simulation of a procedure is a process that behaves the same way
as the procedure, so that similar results are produced.

EXAMPLE:
In classical birthday problem, in which we find the probability that
in a randomly selected group of 25 people (assumption), at least 2
share the same birthday. The theoretical solution is somewhat
difficult. It isn’t practical to survey many different groups of 25
people, so a simulation is a helpful alternative. Describe a
simulation that could be used to find the probability that among 25
randomly selected people, at least 2 share the same birthday.
To start the simulation, lets represent birthdays by integers from 1
through 365, where 1=January 1, 2=2 January 2…….365= December 31.
Then use a calculator or computer program to generate 25 random
numbers, each between 1 and 365. Those numbers can then be sorted,
so it becomes easy to examine the list to determine whether any 2 of the
simulated birth dates are the same (see Excel).
Baye’s Theoream
Baye's Theorem is a theorem that relates the two conditional probability.
For example, if is given but we want to find , Baye's theorem can help
us accomplish this.
EXAMPLE:
1. Drug testing. Suppose, a particular test for whether someone has been
using cannabis is 90% sensitive, meaning the true positive rate
(TPR)=0.90. Therefore, it leads to 90% true positive results (correct
identification of drug use) for cannabis users. The test is also 80%
specific, meaning true negative rate (TNR)=0.80. Therefore, the test
correctly identifies 80% of non-use for non-users, but also generates
20% false positives, or false positive rate (FPR)=0.20, for non-users.

• Assuming 0.05 prevalence, meaning 5% of people use cannabis, what is


the probability that a random person who tests positive is really a
cannabis user?

The Positive predictive value (PPV) of a test is the proportion of persons


who are actually positive out of all those testing positive, and can be
calculated from a sample as:

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