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Lahore Garrison University
CSC374-Professional Practice
Week-10 Lecture-2
Fall 2024
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Previous Lecture Recap
LectureRecap
Software Risk
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Learning Outcomes
What will be the learning outcomes of students after the lecture
Risk management Process and its implication
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Threat Identification (cont’d.)
Weighted ranks of threats to information security
Source: Adapted from M. E. Whitman. Enemy at
the gates: Threats to information security.
Management of Information Security, 3rd
Communications of the ACM, August
ed.
2003. Reprinted with permission
Threat Identification (cont’d.)
• Vulnerability Assessment
– Begin to review every information asset for each threat
– This review leads to the creation of a list of
vulnerabilities that remain potential risks to the
organization
• Vulnerabilities are specific avenues that threat agents can
exploit to attack an information asset
– At the end of the risk identification process, a list of
assets and their vulnerabilities has been developed
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Threat Identification (cont’d.)
Vulnerability Assessment (cont’d.)
This list serves as the starting point for the next step in the risk management
process - risk assessment
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Threat Identification (cont’d.)
Table 8-4 Vulnerability assessment of a DMZ router
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Source: Course Technology/Cengage Learning
The TVA Worksheet
At the end of the risk identification process, a list of assets and their
vulnerabilities has been developed
Another list prioritizes threats facing the organization based on the
weighted table discussed earlier
These lists can be combined into a single worksheet
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
The TVA Worksheet (cont’d.)
Table 8-5 Sample TVA spreadsheet
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Source: Course Technology/Cengage Learning
Introduction to Risk Assessment
The goal is to create a method to evaluate the relative risk of each
listed vulnerability
Figure 8-3 Risk identification estimate factors
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Source: Course Technology/Cengage Learning
Likelihood
• The overall rating of the probability that a
specific vulnerability will be exploited
– Often using numerical value on a defined scale
(such as 0.1 – 1.0)
• Using the information documented during the
risk identification process, you can assign
weighted scores based on the value of each
information asset, i.e. 1-100, low-med-high, etc
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Assessing Potential Loss
Questions to ask when assessing potential loss
Which threats present a danger to this organization’s assets in the given
environment?
Which threats represent the most danger to the organization’s information?
How much would it cost to recover from a successful attack?
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Assessing Potential Loss (cont’d.)
Questions to ask when assessing potential loss (cont’d.)
Which threats would require the greatest expenditure to prevent?
Which of the aforementioned questions is the most important to the
protection of information from threats within this organization?
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Percentage of Risk
Mitigated by Current Controls
If a vulnerability is fully managed by an existing control, it can be
set aside
If it is partially controlled, estimate what percentage of the
vulnerability has been controlled
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Uncertainty
It is not possible to know everything about every vulnerability
The degree to which a current control can reduce risk is also subject to
estimation error
Uncertainty is an estimate made by the manager using judgment and
experience
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Risk Determination
• Example
– Asset A has a value of 50 and has one vulnerability,
which has a likelihood of 1.0 with no current controls.
Your assumptions and data are 90% accurate
– Asset B has a value of 100 and has two vulnerabilities:
vulnerability #2 has a likelihood of 0.5 with a current
control that addresses 50% of its risk; vulnerability #
3 has a likelihood of 0.1 with no current controls. Your
assumptions and data are 80% accurate
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Risk Determination (cont’d.)
Example (cont’d.)
The resulting ranked list of risk ratings for the three vulnerabilities is as
follows:
Asset A: Vulnerability 1 rated as 55 = (50 × 1.0) – 0% + 10%
Asset B: Vulnerability 2 rated as 35 = (100 × 0.5) – 50% + 20%
Asset B: Vulnerability 3 rated as 12 = (100 × 0.1) – 0 % + 20%
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Likelihood and Consequences
Likelihood and consequence rating
Another approach
From the Australian and New Zealand Risk Management Standard 4360i
Uses qualitative methods of determining risk based on a threat’s probability
of occurrence and expected results of a successful attack
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Likelihood and
Consequences (cont’d)
Likelihood and consequence rating (cont’d.)
Consequences (or impact assessment) are evaluated on 5 levels ranging
from insignificant (level 1) to catastrophic (level 5), as assessed by the
organization
Qualitative likelihood assessments levels are represented by values ranging
from A (almost certain) to E (rare), as determined by the organization
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Identify Possible Controls
For each threat and its associated vulnerabilities that have residual risk,
create a preliminary list of control ideas
Three general categories of controls exist:
Policies
Programs
Technical controls
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Likelihood and Consequences (cont’d.)
Table 8-6 Consequence levels for organizational threats
Management of Information Security, 3rd
Source: Risk management plan templates and forms
ed.
from www.treasury.act.gov.au/actia/Risk.htm
Likelihood and Consequences (cont’d.)
Table 8-7 Likelihood levels for organizational threats
Management of Information Security, 3rd
Source: Risk management plan templates and forms
ed.
from www.treasury.act.gov.au/actia/Risk.htm
Likelihood and Consequences
(cont’d.)
Consequences and likelihoods are combined
Enabling the organization to determine which threats represent the greatest
danger to the organization’s information assets
The resulting rankings can then be inserted into the TVA tables for use
in risk assessment
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Likelihood and Consequences (cont’d.)
Table 8-8 Qualitative risk analysis matrix
Management of Information Security, 3rd
Source: Risk management plan templates and forms
ed.
from www.treasury.act.gov.au/actia/Risk.htm
Documenting the Results
of Risk Assessment
Goals of the risk management process
To identify information assets and their vulnerabilities
To rank them according to the need for protection
In preparing this list, a wealth of factual information about the assets
and the threats they face is collected
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Documenting the Results
of Risk Assessment (cont’d.)
Information about the controls that are already in place is also collected
The final summarized document is the ranked vulnerability risk
worksheet
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Table 8-9 Ranked vulnerability risk worksheet
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Source: Course Technology/Cengage Learning
Documenting the Results of Risk Assessment (cont’d.)
What should the documentation package look like?
What are the deliverables from this stage of the risk management
project?
The risk identification process should designate what function the
reports serve, who is responsible for preparing them, and who reviews
them
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Documenting the Results of Risk Assessment (cont’d.)
Table 8-10 Risk identification and assessment deliverables
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
Source: Course Technology/Cengage Learning
Summary
Introduction
Risk management
Risk identification
Risk assessment
Documenting the results of risk assessment
Management of Information Security, 3rd
ed.
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Q&A
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References
These lecture notes were taken from following source:
Professional Issues in Software Engineering M.F. Bott
et al. Latest edition
Computer Ethics, Deborah G. Johnson, Pearson
Education (2001) 3rd edition
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