Chapter 5
Chapter 5
III. Total value of the firm = market claims (debt + equity) + non-
marketed claims (taxes, potential lawsuits and bankruptcy
claims). Marketed claims can be bought and sold in financial
markets, and the non-marketed claims cannot
Pecking-Order vs. trade-off:
a. There is no target amount of leverage in PO:
In TO, the optimal amount of leverage occurs
where the marginal benefit of debt equals the
marginal cost of debt. In PO, the amount of
leverage is determined by the happenstance
of available projects. Firms do not pursue a
target ratio of debt to equity.
. . . Cont’d
b. Profitable firms use less debt in PO: profitable
firms generate cash internally, implying less
need for outside financing. Because firms
desiring outside capital turn to debt first,
profitable firms end up relying on less debt.
The TO doesn’t have this implication. The
greater cash flow of more profitable firms
creates greater debt capacity. These firms will
use that debt capacity to capture the tax shield
and the other benefits of leverage.
Signaling Theory
• MM assumed that investors have the same
information about a firm’s prospects as its managers
—this is called symmetric information. However, in
fact managers often have better information than
outside investors. This is called asymmetric
information, and it has an important effect on the
optimal capital structure.
• To see why, consider two situations, one in which the
company’s managers know that its prospects are
extremely positive (Firm P) and one in which the
managers know that the future looks negative (Firm
N).
Cont’d
• Suppose, for example, that Firm P’s R&D labs have
just discovered a nonpatentable cure for the
common cold.
• They want to keep the new product a secret as long
as possible to delay competitors’ entry into the
market. New plants must be built to make the new
product, so capital must be raised. How should Firm
P’s management raise the needed capital? If it sells
stock, then, when profits from the new product start
flowing in, the price of the stock would rise sharply,
and the purchasers of the new stock would make a
bonanza.
Cont’d
• The current stockholders (including the managers)
would also do well, but not as well as they would
have done if the company had not sold stock
before the price increased, because then they
would not have had to share the benefits of the
new product with the new stockholders.
Therefore, one would expect a firm with very
positive prospects to try to avoid selling stock and,
rather, to raise any required new capital by other
means, including using debt beyond the normal
target capital structure.
. . . Cont’d
• Now let’s consider Firm N. Suppose its managers have
information that new orders are off sharply because a
competitor has installed new technology that has improved its
products’ quality.
• Firm N must upgrade its own facilities, at a high cost, just to
maintain its current sales. As a result, its return on investment
will fall (but not by as much as if it took no action, which would
lead to a 100 percent loss through
bankruptcy).
How should Firm N raise the needed capital? Here the situation
is just the reverse of that facing Firm P, which did not want to sell
stock so as to avoid having to share the benefits of future
developments.
A firm with negative prospects would want to sell stock, which
would mean bringing in new investors to share the losses.
Cont’d
• The conclusion from all this is that firms with
extremely bright prospects prefer not to finance
through new stock offerings, whereas firms with poor
prospects like to finance with outside equity. How
should you, as an investor, react to this conclusion?
• You ought to say, “If I see that a company plans to
issue new stock, this should worry me because I know
that management would not want to issue stock if
future prospects looked good. However, management
would want to issue stock if things looked bad.
• Therefore, I should lower my estimate of the firm’s
value, other things held constant, if it plans to issue
new stock.”
Cont’d
• If you gave the above answer, your views would be
consistent with those of sophisticated portfolio
managers.
• In a nutshell, the announcement of a stock offering is
generally taken as a signal that the firm’s prospects as
seen by its management are not bright. Conversely, a
debt offering is taken as a positive signal.
• Notice that Firm N’s managers cannot make a false
signal to investors by mimicking Firm P and issuing
debt.
• With its unfavorable future prospects, issuing debt
could soon force Firm N into bankruptcy.
Cont’d