PROBABILITY
BASICS
PROBABILITY
• something that has a chance of happening.
• the chance that something will happen.
• a measure of how often a particular event will happen if something (such
as tossing a coin) is done repeatedly.
Life is full of uncertainties. We don’t know the outcomes of a particular
situation until it happens. Will it rain today? Will I pass the next math test?
Will my favorite team win the toss? Will I get a promotion in next 6 months?
All these questions are examples of uncertain situations we live in.
BASIC TERMS
• Experiment – are the uncertain situations, which could have multiple
outcomes. Whether it rains on a daily basis is an experiment.
• Outcome is the result of a single trial. So, if it rains today, the outcome
of today’s trial from the experiment is “It rained”.
• Event is one or more outcome from an experiment. “It rained” is one
of the possible event for this experiment.
• Probability is a measure of how likely an event is. So, if it is 60%
chance that it will rain tomorrow, the probability of Outcome “it rained”
for tomorrow is 0.6
SAMPLE SPACE
• This is a set of all of the possible
outcomes. A set in mathematics
is a unique collection of
elements.
• As an instance, the sample
space of dice is: S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5
and 6}
RANDOM VARIABLE
• A Random Variable is a set
of possible values from a
random experiment.
• Example: Tossing a coin: we could
get Heads or Tails.
• Let's give them the
values Heads=0 and Tails=1 an
d we have a Random Variable
"X":
TYPES OF RANDOM VARIABLES
• Discrete Random Variable
A discrete variable is a Random
Variable
variable whose value is
obtained by counting.
• Continuous Random Variable
Discrete Continuous
A continuous variable is a random random
variable variable
variable whose value is obtained
by measuring.
CONTINUOUS RANDOM
DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE VARIABLE
Examples: Examples:
• number of students present • height of students in class
• number of red marbles in a jar • weight of students in class
• number of heads when flipping • time it takes to get to school
three coins • distance traveled between
• students’ grade level classes
PROBABILITY
• Probability of an event happening =
• Example: the chances of rolling a "4" with a die
Number of favorable cases: 1 (there is only 1 face with a "4" on it)
Total number of outcomes: 6 (there are 6 faces altogether)
So the probability =
NOTE : 0 <= P(A) <= 1
EXAMPLES
Question 1:
A die is rolled, find the probability that an even number is obtained.
Solution :
Sample Space, S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Events, E = {2,4,6}
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 6 = 1 / 2
EXAMPLES
Question 2 :
Two coins are tossed, find the probability that two heads are
obtained. Note: Each coin has two possible outcomes H (heads) and T
(Tails).
Solution :
S = {(H,T),(H,H),(T,H),(T,T)}
E = {(H,H)}
P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 1 / 4
Question 4 :
Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is
a) equal to 1
b) equal to 4
c) less than 13
SOLUTION :
S = { (1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6)
(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6)
(3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6)
(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6)
(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6)
(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6) }
THANK YOU
