A Simple Keynesian Model
A Simple Keynesian Model
Expenditure Multipliers:
The Keynesian Model
Fixed Prices and Planned Expenditure
• The Keynesian modal that we study in this
chapter describes the economy in the very
short run
• It isolates and places in focus the forces that
operate at a business cycle peak, when
expansion end and a recession begins, and at
a trough, when recession turns into an
expansion
• In the very short run prices are fixed
• Firms hold the prices they have fixed, and the
quantities they sell depend on demand, not
supply
• Fixed prices have two immediate implications
for the economy as a whole:
1. Because each firm’s price is fixed, the price
level is fixed
2. Because demand determines the quantities
that each firm sells, aggregate demand
determines the aggregate quantity of goods
and services sold, which equals real GDP
• So to understand the fluctuations in real GDP when
the price level is fixed, we must understand
aggregate demand fluctuations.
Disposable income
Real interest rates
Wealth
Expected future income
• Disposable income is aggregate income minus
taxes plus transfer payments
YD = Y – TX + TR
• Aggregate income equals real GDP so
disposable income depends on real GDP
• We focus on the relationship between
consumption expenditure and disposable
income when the other three factors listed are
constant
Consumption and planned savings
• The table shows an example of the
relationship among planned consumption
expenditure, planned savings and disposable
income
Disposable Planned Planned
income consumption savings
expenditure
(billions of 2000 rand)
A 0 1.5 -1.5
B 2 3.0 -1.0
C 4 4.5 -0.5
D 6 6.0 0
E 8 7.5 0.5
F 10 9.0 1.0
• It list the consumption function expenditure
and the savings that people plan to undertake
at each level of disposable income
• Notice that at each level of disposable income,
consumption expenditure plus savings always
equals disposable income
• Households can only consume or save their
disposable income, so planned consumption
expenditure plus savings always equals
disposable income
• The relation ship between consumption
expenditure and disposable income, ceteris
paribus, is called consumption function
• The relationship between savings and
disposable income, ceteris paribus, is called
the savings function
Consumption function
• Y-axis measures consumption expenditure
• X-axis measures disposable income
• Along the consumption function, as disposable income
increases, consumption expenditure also increases
• At point A on the consumption function, consumption
expenditure is R2 billion even though disposable income
is zero
• This consumption spending is called autonomous
spending
• It is the amount of consumption expenditure that would
take place in the short run even people had no current
income, for survival
• Consumption expenditure in excess of this amount is
called induced consumption, which is induced by an
increase in disposable income
Continue
Autonomous consumption do not vary with
income (need for survival)
Induced consumption is the portion of
consumption that varies with disposable
income
When there is a change in disposable income
it “induces” a change in consumption
45⁰ line
• The height of this line measures disposable income
• At each point on this line, consumption expenditure
equals disposable income
• In the range over which the consumption function
lies above the 45⁰ line, consumption expenditure
exceeds disposable income
• Below consumption is less than disposable income
• At the intersect between the two lines consumption
expenditure equals disposable income
Savings function
0
Savings
2 4 6 8 10
-2
Disposable income
= 0.75
• The marginal propensity to save (MPS) is the
fraction of a change in disposable income that
is saved
• It is calculated as the change is saving()
divided by the change in disposable income()
that brought it about
CF₁
10 45⁰ line
CF₀
Consumption expenditure
2 4 6 8 10
Disposable income
• The savings function shifts from SF₀ to SF₁
2
SF₀
SF₁
0
Savings
2 4 6 8 10
-2
Disposable income
12 A 12.25 A’ 12.75
13 B 13 B’ 13.50
14 C 13.75 C’ 14.25
15 D 14.50 D’ 15
16 E 15.25 E’ 15.75
• Initially, when real GDP is R12 billion, aggregate
planned expenditure is R12.25 billion
• For each R1billion increase in real GDP,
aggregate planned expenditure increases by
R0.75 billion
• The aggregate expenditure schedule is shown
in the figure as the aggregate expenditure curve
AE₀
• Initially, equilibrium expenditure is R13 billion
• You can see this equilibrium in row B of the
table and in the figure where the curve AE₀
intersects the 45⁰ line an the point marked B
• Now suppose that autonomous expenditure increases by
R0.5 billion
• What happens to equilibrium expenditure?
• Look at the figure
• When this increase in autonomous is added to the
original aggregate planned expenditure, aggregate
planned expenditure increases by R0.5 billion at each
level of real GDP
• The new aggregate expenditure curve is AE₁
• The new equilibrium expenditure occurs where the AE₁
intersects the 45⁰ line and is R15 billion
• At this real GDP, aggregate planned expenditure equals
real GDP
The multiplier effect
• The increase in autonomous expenditure of R0.5
billion increases equilibrium expenditure by R2
billion
• =2
• That is, the change in autonomous expenditure
leads to an amplified change in equilibrium
expenditure
• This amplified change is the multiplier effect –
equilibrium expenditure increase by more than the
increase in autonomous expenditure
• The multiplier is greater than 1
• Initially, when autonomous expenditure increases,
aggregate planned expenditure exceeds real GDP
• Thus inventories decreases
• Firms respond by increasing production so as to
restore their inventories to the target level
• As production increases, so does real GDP
• With a higher level of real GDP, induced expenditure
increases
• Thus the equilibrium expenditure increases by the
sum of the initial increase in autonomous
expenditure and the increase in induced expenditure
Why is the multiplier greater than 1?
• We’ve seen that equilibrium expenditure
increase by more than the increase in
autonomous expenditure
• This make the multiplier greater than 1
• The multiplier is greater than 1 because
induced expenditure inducer further increases
in expenditure
• Additional income induces additional
expenditure, which creates additional income
The size of the multiplier
• Suppose that the economy is in a recession
• Profit prospects start to look better, and firms are
making plans for large increases in investment
• The world economy is also heading toward
expansion, and exports are increasing.
• How strong will the expansion be?
• This is a hard question to answer
• But an important ingredient in the answer is
working out the size of the multiplier
• The multiplier is the amount by which a change
in autonomous expenditure is multiplied to
determine the change in equilibrium
expenditure that it generates
• To calculate the multiplier, we divide the change
in equilibrium expenditure by the change in
autonomous expenditure
The multiplier and the slope of the AE curve
• The magnitude of the multiplier depends on
the slope of the AE curve
• The steeper the slope of the AE curve ,the
larger is the multiplier
Or
Imports and income taxes
• The multiplier is determined, in general, not
only by the MPC but also by the marginal
propensity to import and by the income tax
rate
• Imports make the multiplier smaller than it
otherwise would be
• Income taxes also make the multiplier smaller
than it would otherwise be
• The marginal propensity to import and the
income tax rate together with the marginal
propensity to consume determine the multiplier
• Their combined influence determines the slope of
the AE curve
• Over time, the value of the multiplier changes as
tax rates change and as the marginal propensity
to consume and the marginal propensity to
import change
• These ongoing changes make the multiplier hard
to predict
Business cycle turning points
• At business cycle turning points, the economy
moves form expansion to recession or from
recession to expansion
• Economists know quite a lot about the forces and
mechanism that bring business cycle turning
points but they can’t predict them
• The forces that bring business cycle turning points
are the swings in autonomous expenditure such
as investment and exports
• The mechanism that give momentum to the
economy’s new direction is the multiplier
Recap
The Multiplier
• The amount by which a change in autonomous expenditure is magnified or
multiplied to determine the change in equilibrium expenditure and real GDP
The Multiplier Effect
• The change in autonomous expenditure leads to
an amplified change in equilibrium expenditure
• Equilibrium expenditure increases by more than
the increase in autonomous expenditure
• The increase in autonomous expenditure
of R0.5 billion increases equilibrium expenditure
by R2 billion = = 2
Why is the Multiplier Greater Than 1?
• Because induced expenditure increases – an
increase in autonomous expenditure induces
further increases in expenditure
The Size of the Multiplier
• To calculate the multiplier, we divide the change in equilibrium expenditure
by the change in autonomous expenditure
15 AE
Autonomous
expenditure equals
a - bTₐ + I + G + X
10
Slope equals
b(1 – t) - m
5 10 15
Real GDP
Equilibrium expenditure
Equilibrium expenditure occurs when aggregate
planned expenditure(AE) equals real GDP(Y)
That is:
45⁰
Aggregate planned expenditure
15 AE
Equilibrium
expenditure
10
A
5
5 10 15
Real GDP
• The scale on the x-axis and y-axis is identical, so
the 45⁰ line shows the points at which
aggregate planned expenditure equal real GDP
• The figure shows the point of equilibrium at the
intersection of the AE curve and the 45⁰ line
• To calculate equilibrium expenditure, solve the
equation for the AE curve an the 45⁰ line for the
two unknown quantities AE and Y starting with
AE = A + [b(1 – t) - m]Y
AE = Y
Replace AE with Y in the AE equation to obtain
Y = A + [b(1 – t) - m]Y
A
The multiplier
The multiplier equals the change in equilibrium
expenditure and real GDP (Y) that results from a
change in autonomous expenditure(AE)divided by
the change in autonomous expenditure(A)
Multiplier =
The size of the multiplier depends on the slope
of the AE curve, b(1 – t) – m.
The larger the slope, the larger is the multiplier.
So the multiplier is larger:
• The greater the marginal propensity to
consume(b)
• The smaller the marginal tax rate(t)
• The smaller the marginal propensity to
import(m)
• An economy with no imports and no tax has
m=0 and t=0
• In this special case, the multiplier equals
=2