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Scale Free

The document discusses the application of scale-free network models in epidemiology, highlighting the inadequacies of traditional statistical models in capturing the complexities of disease spread. It emphasizes the need for a new modeling approach that accounts for the non-random nature of human interactions and the potential for superspreader events. The proposed simulator aims to integrate interaction and decision networks to better inform public health responses and policy-making.

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Mado Saeed
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7 views21 pages

Scale Free

The document discusses the application of scale-free network models in epidemiology, highlighting the inadequacies of traditional statistical models in capturing the complexities of disease spread. It emphasizes the need for a new modeling approach that accounts for the non-random nature of human interactions and the potential for superspreader events. The proposed simulator aims to integrate interaction and decision networks to better inform public health responses and policy-making.

Uploaded by

Mado Saeed
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Scale-Free Network

Models
in Epidemiology

Preliminary Findings
Jill Bigley Dunham
F. Brett Berlin
George Mason University
19 August 2004
Problem/Motivation
• Epidemiology traditionally approached as a
medical/public health understanding issue
– Medical biology => Pathogen behavior
– Outbreak history => Outbreak potential
– Infectivity characteristics => Threat prioritization
• Outbreak & Control Models = Contact Models
– Statistical Models (Historical Patterning)
– Contact Tracing and Triage (Reactive)
– Network Models (Predictive)

08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi


demiology
The Challenge is Changing
• Epidemiology is now a security issue
– Complexity of society redefines contact
– Potential & reality of pathogens as
weapons

Epidemiology is Now About

Decisions
08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
Modeling Options
• Current statistical models don’t work
– Oversimplified
– No superspreader events (SARS)
• Simple network models have limited
utility
• Recent discoveries suggest
application of scale-free networks
– Broad applicability (cells => society)
– Interesting links to Chaos Theory
08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
Statistical Approaches
 Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible
Model (SIS)
 Susceptible-Infected-Removed Model (SIR)
 Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-
Removed (SEIR)

S I S

E R
08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
Differential Equations
• SIR Model 1 /   Mean latent period
for the disease.
  Contact rate.
1 /   Mean infection
rate.

• SEIR Model s(t), e(t), i(t), r(t) :


Fractions of the population
in each of the states.
S+I+R =1
S+E+I+R=1

08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi


demiology
Statistical Systems Presume Randomness

Research Question:
Question
Is the epidemiological network
Random? …or ??

08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi


demiology
Network Models
• Differential Equations model assumes the
population is “fully mixed” (random).
• In real world, each individual has contact
with only a small fraction of the entire
population.
• The number of contacts and the frequency
of interaction vary from individual to
individual.
• These patterns can be best modeled as a
NETWORK.
08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
Scale-Free Network
• A small proportion of the nodes in a scale-
free network have high degree of
connection.
• Power law distribution P(k)  O(k-).
A given node has k connections to other
nodes with probability as the power law
distribution with  = [2, 3].
• Examples of known scale-free networks:
– Communication Network - Internet
– Ecosystems and Cellular Systems
– Social network responsible for spread of disease
08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
Reprinted from Linked: The New Science of Networks by Albert-Laszlo Barabasi

08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi


demiology
Generation of Scale-Free
Network
• The vertices are distributed at random in a
plane.
• An edge is added between each pair of
vertices with probability p.
• Waxman Model:
P(u,v) =  * exp( -d / (*L) ), 0  ,   1.
– L is the maximum distance between any two nodes.
– Increase in alpha increases the number of edges in the
graph.
– Increase in beta increases the number of long edges
relative to short edges.
– d is the Euclidean distance from u to v in Waxman-1.
– d is a random number between [0, L] in Waxman-2.
08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
Problems with this
Approach
• Waxman model inappropriate for
creating scale-free networks
• Most current topology generators are
not up to this task!
• One main characteristic of scale-free
networks is addition of nodes over
time
08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
Procedure
1. Create scale-free network
• Georgia Tech - Internetwork Topology Model and ns2
with Waxman model
• Deterministic scale-free network generation -- Barabasi,
et.al.

2. Apply simulation parameters


• Numerical experiments, etc.

3. Step simulation through time


• Decision functions calculate exposure, infection, removal
• Numerical experiments with differing decision
functions/parameters

08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi


demiology
Proposed Simulator
• Multi-stage Computation
• Separate Interaction and Decision
Networks
• Multi-dimensional Network Layering
• Extensible Data Sources
• Decomposable/Recomposable Nodes
• Introduce concept of SuperStopper

08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi


demiology
TWO-PHASE
COMPUTATION
• Separate Progression & Transmission
• Progression: Track internal factors
– Node susceptibility (e.g., general health)
– Token infectiousness
• Transmission: Track inter-nodal
transition
– External catalytic effects
– Token dynamics (e.g., spread, blockage,
etc)
08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
INTERACTION NETWORK
• Population connectivity graph
• Key Challenges
– Data Temporality: Input data (even near-
real time observation) generally limited to
past history & statistical analysis.
– Data Integration: Sources,
sensor/observer characteristics, precision
& context often poorly defined, unknown
or incompatible
– Dimensionality of connectivity
08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
PRIMITIVES
• Set of j Nodes N={nI, nII, … , nj}
• Set of k Unordered Pairs (Links) L =
{(n,n)I, (n,n)II, ... , (n,n)k}

• Set of m Communities C={cI, cII, …, cm}

• Set of p Attributes A={aI, aII, …, ap}

• Set of q Functions F={fI, fII, …, fq}


08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
DECISION NETWORK
• Separate overlay network defining
control decision parameters which are
applied to the Interaction Network.
– Shutting down public transportation
– Implementing preferential vaccination
strategies

The Interaction Network models societal and


system realities and dynamics. The Decision
Network models policy maker options.
08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
EXTENSIBLE DATA
SOURCES
Model and simulation must be
dynamically extensible -- designed to
reconfigure and recompute based on
insertion of external source databases,
and real-time change
• NOAA weather/environmental data
• Multi-source intelligence
assessments
08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
FUTURE WORK
• Refine theoretical framework
• Computational
capability/architecture
• Simulator development
• Extensible data source compilation
• Host systems acquisition
• Partnering for research and
implementation
08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi
demiology
Concluding Perspectives

• Computational Opportunities
• Theory and Policy
• Chaos and Complexity
• Imperative for Alchemy

08/19/2004 Scale-Free Network Models in Epi


demiology

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