Statistics Unit1ppt
Statistics Unit1ppt
Business
STAT130
Unit 1: Introduction and
Descriptive Statistics
Chapter 1
An Introduction to Business
Statistics
Applications in Business and
Economics
□ Accounting
■ Public accounting firms use statistical
procedures when conductin sampling
clients. g audits for their
□ Production
■ A variety of statistical quality control charts are
used to monitor the output of a production process.
□ Marketing
■ Electronic point-of-sale scanners at retail checkout
counters are being used to collect data for a variety
of marketing research applications.
3
Applications in Business and
Economics
□ Economics
■ Economists use statistical information in making
forecasts about the future of the economy or some
aspect of it.
□ Finance
■ Financial advisors use a variety of statistical
information, including price-earnings ratios and
dividend yields, to guide their investment
recommendations.
4
Key
Definitions
□ A population is the collection of all items or
things under consideration –people or objects
□ A sample is a portion of the population
for analysis
selected population is more accurate than the samples
anything we calculate while we measure population
□ A parameter is a summary measure that
describes a characteristic of the population
□ A statistic is a summary measure
a sample from
computed anything we calculate from the sample
Exerci
statistics is 8%
parameter
statistics
7
Descriptive Statistics
□ Collect data
■ e.g. Survey
□ Present
data
■ e.g. Tables
□ Characterize
and graphs
data
■ e.g. Sample mean = X i
n
8
Inferential Statistics
□ Estimation
■ e.g.: Estimate the
population mean weight
using the sample mean
weight
□ Hypothesis testing
■ e.g.: Test the claim that the
population mean weight is
over 120 pounds
Inferential
Statistics
□ Making statements about a population
by examining sample results
Sample statistics Population parameters
(known) Inference (unknown, but can
because we calculated it, be estimated from
sample evidence)
Sample
Population
10
next class
Sources of
data
□ The most popular sources of data are:
■ Published material, observational studies,
experimental studies and surveys.
□ Published material
found in books, in scientific journals, on
tapes, on CDs, on the Internet, etc…
■ Data published by the organization that
collected the data are called PRIMARY DATA
■ Data published by an organization other than
the organization that collected the data are
called SECONDARY DATA.
11
Sources of data
□ Observational studies:
■ are studies in which the sample elements are observed
and the information is recorded without
controlling any of the factors that might affect
the information or measurements.
□ Experimental studies:
■ are studies which the measurements are recorded while
controlling some factors that might influence the
results of the study.
□ Surveys:
■ are questionnaires designed to solicit information from
people, by means of (face-to-face interview,
telephone interview, postal mail, e-mail, fax)
12
Types of data
□ Data are the facts, figures, or records that
are collected from the sample elements.
□ Data can be classified:
■ Qualitative data are labels or names used to
identify attributes of the sample elements.
The labels can be numbers with no real
numerical meaning.
□ Examples: gender, marital status, race, ..
■ Quantitative data are numbers (with real
meaning), representing measurements,
obtained from the sample elements.
□ Examples: salary, age, number of branches,..
13
Measurement Scales
□ Nominal data if the order is not important.
■ Examples: data representing marital status,
gender, work sector (public, private), get
promoted (yes, no), etc …
□ Ordinal data if the order is important.
■ Examples: data representing job performance
(excellent, good, fair, poor), income level (low,
medium, high), educational level (less than
high school, high school, college), etc…
14
Measurement Scales
□ Interval data: All of the characteristics of
ordinal plus…
■ Measurements are on a numerical scale with an arbitrary
zero point
□ The “zero” is assigned: it is nonphysical and not
meaningful
□ Zero does not mean the absence of the quantity that we
are trying to measure
■ Can only meaningfully compare values by the interval
between them
□ Cannot compare values by taking their ratios
□ “Interval” is the arithmetic difference between the
values
■ Example: temperature
□ 0 F means “cold,” not “no heat”
□ 80 F is not twice as warm as 40 F 15
Measurement Scales
□ Ratio data: All the of interval
characteristics plus…
■ Measurements are on a numerical scale with a
meaningful zero point
□ Zero means “none” or “nothing”
■ Values can be compared in terms of their interval and
ratio
□ $30 is $20 more than $10
□ $0 means no money
■ In business and finance, most quantitative variables are
ratio variables, such as anything to do with money
□ Examples: Earnings, profit, loss, age, distance, height,
weight
16
Exercise
□ After the graduation ceremonies at a university, six
Business graduates were asked whether they will join
an MBA program next year. Some information
about these graduates is shown below.
Graduate Sex Age MBA Rank
Huda F 52 1 1
Mohamed M 24 1 2
Sara F 33 0 4
Ali M 38 0 20
Fatima F 25 1 3
Samer M 19 0 8
Probability Samples
18
Simple Random Samples
□ Every individual or item from the frame
has an equal chance of being selected.
□ Selection may be with replacement or
without replacement.
□ Samples obtained from computer random
number generators.
19
Systematic Samples
□ Decide on sample size: n
□ Divide frame of N individuals into groups of k
individuals: k=N/n
□ Randomly select one individual from the 1st
group.
□ Select every kth individual thereafter
N = 64
n=8 First Group
k=8 20
Stratified Samples
□ Population divided into two or more subgroups
(called strata) according to some common
characteristic.
□ Simple random sample selected from
each subgroup.
□ Samples from subgroups are combined into
one.
Population
Divided
into 4
strata
21
Sample
Cluster Samples
□ Population is divided into “clusters,” each
representative of the population
□ A simple random sample of clusters is
selected
■ All items in the selected clusters can be used, or items
can be chosen from a cluster using another
probability sampling technique
Population
divided into
16 clusters. Randomly selected
clusters for sample
22
Advantages and
Disadvantages
□ Simple random sample and systematic sample
■ Simple to use
■ May not be a good representation of the
population’s underlying characteristics that
have small probabilities
□ Stratified sample
■ Ensures representation of individuals across the
entire population
□ Cluster sample
■ More cost effective
■ Less efficient (need larger sample to acquire
the
same level of precision) 23
Chapter 2
Descriptive Statistics: Tabular
and Graphical Methods
Organizing and
□ Presenting
Data in raw form areData
usually not easy to use
for decision making
■ Some type of organization is needed
□ Table
□ Graph
□ Techniques reviewed here:
■ Stem-and-Leaf Display
■ Frequency Distributions and Histograms
■ Bar charts and pie charts
■ Contingency tables and Scatter Diagrams
25
Representing Qualitative
Data
Qualitative Data
26
Frequency Tables
□ A frequency table consists of two columns,
one of which shows the categories or classes
and the other specifies the frequency for
each category.
□ In a frequency table, all frequencies must add
up to the sample size (n).
□ A relative frequency table consists of two
columns, one of which shows the categories
or classes and the other specifies the
relative frequency for each category.
The relative frequency=(Frequency/sample size)
27
Example
□ The following table lists all 251 vehicles sold
in 2006 by the greater Cincinnati Jeep
dealers
Jeep Model Frequency
Commander 71
Grand Cherokee 70
Liberty 80
Wrangler 30
251
28
Example: Relative
Frequency Table
Relative Percent
Jeep Model Frequency Frequency
29
Bar Charts and Pie Charts
□ Bar chart: A vertical or horizontal rectangle
represents the frequency for each category
■ Height can be frequency, relative frequency, or
percent frequency
■ What to Look For: Frequently and infrequently
occurring categories.
□ Pie chart: A circle divided into slices where the
size of each slice represents its relative frequency
or percent frequency
■ What to Look For: Categories that form large and
small proportions of the data set.
30
Excel Bar
Chart
31
Excel Pie Chart
32
Exercise
□ A random sample of 25 female shoppers was
selected on a given day and each
shopper was asked: “what is your
favorite shampoo?”. The data were as
follows:
p, p, s, d, s, d, d, s, p, d, p, d, d, s, d, p, s, s,
d, s, p, d, d, s, d,
where d= Dove, p= Pantene and s=
Sunsilk.
Construct a frequency table, a bar chart and
a pie chart and comment on the plots.
33
Representing
Quantitative Data
Quantitative Data
Frequency Distributions
Ordered Array and
Cumulative
Distributions
Stem and Leaf
Histogram Polygon Ogive
Display
34
Frequency Distributions
□ A frequency distribution is a list or a table
■ containing class groupings (categories or ranges
within which the data falls)
■ and the corresponding frequencies with which
data
falls within each grouping or category
□ Why Use Frequency Distributions?
■ A frequency distribution is a way to summarize
data
■ The distribution condenses the raw data into a
more useful form
■ allows for a quick visual interpretation of the
data
■ and easy graphical display 35
Class Intervals and Class
□Boundaries
If each class grouping has the same width
■ Determine the width of each interval by
range
Width of interval
number of desired class
groupings
■ Use at least 5 but no more than 15 groupings
■ Class boundaries never overlap
■ Round up the interval width to get desirable
endpoints
36
Frequency Distribution
Example
□ A manufacturer of insulation randomly selects 20
winter days and records the daily high
temperature
■ Sort raw data in ascending order:
12, 13, 17, 21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30,
32, 35, 37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46, 53, 58
■ Find range: 58 - 12 = 46
■ Select number of classes: 5 (usually 5 to 15)
■ Compute class interval (width): 10 (46/5 then roundup)
■ Compute class boundaries (limits): 10, 20, 30, 40, 50,
60
■ Compute class midpoints: 15, 25, 35, 45, 55
■ Count observations & assign to classes 37
Frequency Distribution
Example
Ordered Data:
12, 13, 17, 21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 35, 37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46, 53, 58
Relative
Class Frequency Frequency Percentage
4 3
3 2
2
(No gaps 1 0 0
between 0
bars) 5 15 25 35 45 55 More
40
Shapes of Histograms
42
Cumulative Distributions
and
□ Ogive
Another way to summarize a distribution is to
construct a cumulative distribution
□ Rather than a count, we record the number of
measurements that are less than the upper
boundary of that class
□ Ogive: A graph of a cumulative distribution
■ Plot a point above each upper class boundary at height
of cumulative frequency
■ Connect points with line segments
■ Can also be drawn using
□ Cumulative relative frequencies
□ Cumulative percent frequencies
43
Cumulative Frequency
Data in ordered array:
12, 13, 17, 21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 35, 37, 38, 41, 43, 44, 46, 53, 58
Cumulative Cumulative
Class Freq % Class Frequency %
Total 20 100
44
Graphing Cumulative
Frequencies:
The Ogive (Cumulative %
Lower
class Cumulative
Polygon)
Class
less than 10
boundary Percentage
10 0
less than 20 20 15
less than 30 30 45 Ogive: Daily High Temperature
less than 40 40 70
less than 50 50 90 1
Cumulative Percentage
0
less than 60 60 100 0
8
0
6
0
4
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2
0
45
0
Exercise
□ A random sample of 25 stocks was selected from
the New York Stock Exchange and the book value
(net worth divided by The number of outstanding
shares) was recorded for each stock. The data
were as follows:
10 8 16 14 4 10 8 12 9 7 14 13
11 7 10 17 8 11 9 15 8 6 18 9 12
■ Construct a frequency table
■ Construct a histogram and describe the distribution.
■ Determine the cumulative frequency table
46
Stem and Leaf Display
□ Purpose is to see the overall pattern of the data,
by grouping the data into classes
■ the variation from class to class
■ the amount of data in each class
■ the distribution of the data within each class
□ What to look for: The display conveys
information about a representative to a typical
value in the data set, the extent of spread about
such a value, the presence of any gaps in the
data, the extent of symmetry in the distribution
of values, the number and location of peaks, and
the presence of any outliers (unusual points).
47
Example
Data in ordered array:
21, 24, 24, 26, 27, 27, 30, 32, 38, 41
□ Here, use the 10’s digit for the stem unit:
Stem Leaf
□ 21 is shown as 2 1
□ 38 is shown as 3 8
Stem Leaves
2 1 4 4 6 7
7
3 0 2 8
48
4 1
Car Mileage: Results
□ Refer to the Car
Mileage Case (Table 2.14)
□ Looking at the stem-and-
leaf display, the
distribution appears
almost
“symmetrical”
■ The upper portion (29, 30,
31) is almost a
mirror image of the lower
portion of the display
(31, 32, 33)
□ Stems 31, 32*, 32, and
33*
■ But not exactly a mirror 49
reflection
Crosstabulation Tables
□ Classifies data on two dimensions
■ Rows classify according to one dimension
■ Columns classify according to a second
dimension
□ Requires three variable
1. The row variable
2. The column variable
3. The variable counted in the cells
50
Example: The Investor
Satisfaction
□ Investment broker Case
sells several kinds of
investments (stock fund, bond fund, tax-deferred
annuity)
□ Wishes to study whether satisfaction depends on
the type of investment product purchased
Fund Type High Medium Low Total
Bond Fund 15 12 3 30
Stock Fund 24 4 2 30
Tax Deferred Annuity 1 24 15 40
Total 40 40 20 100
51
More on Crosstabulation
Tables
□ Row totals provide a frequency distribution for
the different fund types
□ Column totals provide a frequency distribution for
the different satisfaction levels
□ One way to investigate relationships is to
compute row and column percentages
■ Compute row percentages by dividing each
cell’s frequency by its row total and expressing
as a percentage
■ Compute column percentages by dividing by the
column total
52
Row Percentage for Each Fund
Type
Fund Type High Medium Low Total
53
Scatter Plots
□ Scatter plots are used for bivariate numerical
data
■ Bivariate data consists of paired observations
taken from two numerical variables
□ The Scatter plot:
■ one variable (dependent) is measured on the
vertical axis and the other variable (independent)
is measured on the horizontal axis.
□ What to look for:
■ Describe the type of the relationship (linear,
nonlinear), the direction (positive, negative) and
the strength (strong, moderate, weak).
54
Examples of Scatter Plots
56
Chapter 3
Descriptive Statistics:
Numerical Methods
Summary Measures
Describing Data Numerically
Standard Deviation
Coefficient of
Variation 58
Measures of Central
Tendency
□ In addition to describing the shape of a
distribution, want to describe the data
set’s central tendency
■ A measure of central tendency represents the
center or middle of the data
Central Tendency
x x · x
x xi1
i n 1 2n n
x x · x
xi1
iN 1 2N N
60
Arithmetic Mean
□ The most common measure of central tendency
□ Mean = sum of values divided by the number of
values
□ Affected by extreme values (outliers)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Mean = 3 Mean = 4
1 2 3 4 5 15 1 2 3 4 10 20
61
3 4
Median
□ Not affected by extreme values
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Median = 3 Median = 3
62
Finding the Median
□ The location of the median:
n1
Median position position in the ordered
array
2
■ If the number of values is odd, the median is the middle
number
■ If the number of values is even, the median is the
average of the two middle numbers
63
Mode
□ A measure of central tendency
□ Value that occurs most often
□ Not affected by extreme values
□ Mainly used for grouped numerical data or
categorical data
□ There may may be no mode
□ There may be several modes
No Mode
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Mode = 9 64
Review Example
□ Five houses on a hill by the beach
$2,000 K
House Prices:
$2,000,000
500,000 $500 K
300,000 $300 K
100,000
100,000
$100 K
$100 K
65
Example: Summary
Statistics□ Mean ($3,000,000/5)
House Prices: : = $600,000
$2,000,000
500,000 □ Median: middle value
300,000 of ranked data
100,000
= $300,000
100,000
Sum □ Mode: most frequent
3,000,000
value
= $100,000
66
Which measure is the
“best”?
□ Mean is generally used, unless extreme values
(outliers) exist
□ Then median is often used, since the median is
not sensitive to extreme values.
□ For a relatively small number of extreme
observations (either very small or very large,
but not both), the median is usually better.
□ Choosing:
■ The mode is meaningful on a nominal scale.
■ The median is meaningful on an ordinal scale.
■ The mean is meaningful on an interval/ratio scale.
67
Shape of a Distribution
□ Describes how data is distributed
□ Symmetric or skewed
■ If the distribution is symmetric, then mean=median.
■ If the distribution is skewed to right, then
mode < median < mean
■ If the distribution is skewed to left, then
mode > median > mean
68
Exercise
□ The following data represent the ages of 20
randomly selected managers:
43 44 49 37 45 35 46
32 47 42 39 40 41 45
41 43 50 47 41 51
a) Find the mean, median and mode for the
above data.
b) Which measure would you choose to describe
the data? Why?
69
Measures of Variability
Variability
70
Measures of Variation
□ Knowing the measures of center is not enough
□ Both of the distributions below have identical
measures of central tendency
Variation
Example:
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14
Range = 14 - 1 = 13 72
Disadvantages of the Range
□ Ignores the way in which data are distributed
7 8 9 10 11 12 7 8 9 10 11 12
Range = 12 - 7 = 5 Range = 12 - 7 = 5
□ Sensitive to outliers
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,4,5
Range = 5 - 1 = 4
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,4,120
Range = 120 - 1 = 119
73
Varian
ce
□ Average of squared deviations of values from
the mean
■ Population variance: Sample
variance: n
i
N
(X X) 2
(X i μ) 2
i1
2
σ i1 S2
N
n -1
Where Where
μ = population mean X = arithmetic mean
N = population size n = sample size
Xi = ith value of the variable X Xi = ith value of the variable X 74
Standard Deviation
□ Most commonly used measure of variation
□ The square root of the variance
□ Shows variation about the mean
□ Has the same units as the original data
■ Sample standard deviation:
i
(X X) 2
i1
S
n -1 75
Example: Sample Standard
Deviation
Sample
Data 10 12 14 15 17 18 18 24
(Xi) :
n=8 Mean = X = 16
126
4.2426
7 76
Comparing Standard
Deviations
Data A
Mean = 15.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 S = 3.338
Data B
Mean = 15.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 S = .9258
Data C
Mean = 15.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 S = 4.57
77
Coefficient of Variation
□ Measures relative variation
□ Always a percentage (%)
□ Shows variation relative to mean
□ Is used to compare two or more sets of
data measured in different units
S
CV
100% X 78
Comparing Coefficients of
Variation
□Stock A:
■ Average price last year = $50
■ Standard deviation = $5
80
Example
□ IQs measured on the Stanford Revision of the Binet–
Simon Intelligence Scale have a mean of 100 points and a
standard deviation of 16 points. The interval:
a) (84, 116) contains about 68.26% of the IQ scores.
b) (68, 132) contains about 95.44% of the IQ scores.
c) (52, 148) contains about 99.74% of the IQ scores.
□ The scores of 25 randomly selected people are shown
below.
66 82 86 88 91 95 96 96 97 98
101 102 102 104 105 106 111 112 115
116 118 121 124 127 129
a) 18 scores (72%) fall in the interval (84, 116).
b) 24 scores (96%) fall in the interval (68, 132).
c) 25 scores (100%) fall in the interval (52, 148).
81
Exercise
□ The exam scores for the students in an
introductory statistics course are as follows.
88 67 64 76 86 85 82 39 75
34
90 63 89 90 84 81 96 100 70
96
a) Compute the descriptive statistics for the
given exam scores.
b) Apply the empirical rule and check the
consistency with the sample results. Explain
your conclusion.
82
Measures of Relative
Standing Measures of
Relative Standing
Percentiles Quartiles
83
Percentiles
□ The pth percentile in an ordered array of n
values is the value in ith position, where
i
p
□ Example: The 60th percentile in an ordered array
(n th
of 19 values is the value in 12 position:
1) 100
p 60
i (n 1) (19 1) 12
100 100
□ In Excel, write =percentile(array, k), where array
is the range of data and k is the percentile value
in the range 0-1. 84
Quartiles
□ Quartiles split the ranked data into 4 equal
groups
25% 25% 25% 25%
Q1 Q3
Q2
16 16 17 18 21 22
□ Example: Find the first quartile
(n = 9)
Sample Data in Ordered Array: 11 12
Q1= 25th percentile, so find the (25/100)(9+1) = 2.5 position
13
so use the value half way between the 2nd and 3rd values,
so Q1= 12.5
85
Interquartile Range and
□ Fences
Difference between the first and third
quartiles
IQR = Q3 – Q1
□ Inner fences: Located 1.5IQR away from
the quartiles:
■ Q1 – (1.5 IQR)
■ Q3 + (1.5 IQR)
□ Outer fences: Located 3IQR away from the
quartiles:
■ Q1 – (3 IQR)
■ Q3 + (3 IQR)
86
Outliers
□ Outliers are measurements that are very different
from other measurements
■ They are either much larger or much smaller than most
of the other measurements
□ Outliers lie beyond the fences of the box-and-
whiskers plot
■ Measurements between the inner and outer fences
are mild outliers
■ Measurements beyond the outer fences are
severe outliers
□ The adjacent values are:
■ The smallest data point falls above the lower
fence.
■ The largest data point falls below the upper fence.
87
Box and Whisker Plot
(Boxplot)
□ A Graphical display of data using 5-number
summary:
Minimum -- Q1 -- Median -- Q3 -- Maximum
89
How to construct a Boxplot?
1. Determine the quartiles.
2. Determine the outliers and the
potential adjacent values.
3. Draw a horizontal axis on which the numbers
obtained in Steps 1 and 2 can be located. Above
this axis, mark the quartiles and the adjacent
values with vertical lines.
4. Connect the quartiles to each other to make a
box, and then connect the box to the adjacent
values with lines.
5. Plot the potential outlier with an asterisk.
90
Example: Box-and-Whiskers
Plots
91
Example
□ A sample of 20 people yielded the weekly
viewing times, in hours,
25 41 27 32 43 66 35 31 15 5
34 26 32 38 16 30 38 30 20 21
■ The five-number summary is
5 24 30.5
35.75 66
■ IQR=35.75-24=11.75
■ 1.5*IQR=1.5*13.5=17.625
■ Lower Fence=Q1-1.5*IQR=24-17.625=6.375
■ Upper
Fence=Q3+1.5*IQR=35.75+17.625=53.375
□ The observations, 5 and 66, lie beyond the inner
fences and hence should be classified as outlier.92
The adjacent values are 15 and 43.
Example: Excel output
93
Exercise
□ IQs measured on the Stanford Revision of the
Binet–Simon Intelligence Scale. The scores of 25
randomly selected people are shown below.
66 82 86 88 91 95 96 96 97
98 101 102 102 104 105 106
111
112 115 116 118 121 124 127 129
Identify potential outliers, if any, and construct
and interpret a boxplot
94