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Unit 2 PT 3

The document outlines four analytical probabilistic reliability methods: Fault Tree Analysis, Event Tree Analysis, Binary Decision Diagram, and Markov Process. Each method is described in terms of its application, advantages, and the contexts in which it is used, particularly in reliability and safety assessments across various industries. The document also provides examples of how these methods can be applied to analyze system availability and reliability.

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22 views19 pages

Unit 2 PT 3

The document outlines four analytical probabilistic reliability methods: Fault Tree Analysis, Event Tree Analysis, Binary Decision Diagram, and Markov Process. Each method is described in terms of its application, advantages, and the contexts in which it is used, particularly in reliability and safety assessments across various industries. The document also provides examples of how these methods can be applied to analyze system availability and reliability.

Uploaded by

hagos
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Analytical Probabilistic Reliability

Methods
Analytical Probabilistic Reliability Methods

• There are four analytical probabilistic


reliability methods:
• Fault tree analysis
• Event tree analysis
• Binary decision diagram
• Markov Process
Fault Tree Analysis
• The fault tree analysis is a standard method for the assessment and
improvement of reliability and safety.
• It has been and it is applied in various sectors, such as nuclear industry, air
and space industry, electrical industry, chemical industry, railway industry,
transport, software reliability, and insurance.
• Its widely acceptance is gained primarily when integrated with the event
tree analysis as a part of the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for
improving the safety of nuclear power plants and for improving the safety of
space missions.
• The fault tree analysis is an analytical technique, where an undesired state of
the system is specified and then the system is analysed in the context of its
environment and operation to find all realistic ways in which the undesired
event can occur.
• The undesired state of the system, which is identified at the beginning of the
fault tree analysis, is usually a state that is critical from a safety or reliability
standpoint and is identified as the top event.
• Top event is therefore an undesired event, which is further analysed with the
Event Tree Analysis
• Event tree analysis is the technique used to
define potential accident sequences
associated with a particular initiating event or
set of initiating events.
• The event tree model describes the logical
connection between the potential successes
and failures of defined safety systems or safety
functions as they respond to the initiating
event and the sequence of events
Binary Decision Diagram
• A binary decision diagram (BDD) is a mean to represent, analyze, test, and
implement Boolean functions . It is a directed acyclic graph that consists of
nodes and edges.
• The popular description of using such diagrams to represent Boolean functions
was provided by Akers in 1978. Although other methods may be used to
complete such tasks, e.g., the Karnaugh map, binary decision diagrams offer
some useful advantages.
• Karnaugh maps and truth tables are suitable methods that may be used to
describe functions consisting of a small number of variables. However, the
problem with such methods is that the size of these structures increases
dramatically as the number of variables increase, i.e., 2n rows in a truth table or
squares in a Karnaugh map are required for a function of n variables.
• Although a binary decision diagram contains 2n - 1 nodes for n variables, it is
possible to reduce the size of these structures by following certain algorithms.
• For instance, the order in which variables are evaluated within a binary decision
diagram can significantly affect the size of the structure.
• A binary decision diagram is called an ordered binary decision diagram (OBDD) if
on all of its paths the variables appear in the same order.
Markov Processes
• A Markov process is a continuous stochastic process in which
future states are conditional only on the present state and are
independent of previous states.
• A random time-varying process in which future states may be
predicted only using the current state as an input.
• This property of Markov processes is known as the Markov
property.
• A Markov chain is a type of Markov process in which there are
number of finite states (S1, S2, S3….Sn) that the process may
exist at any given time.
• The probability of the process moving from Si to Sj is denoted
by the transition probability Pij and the probability of the
process remaining in the same state is denoted by the
• Markov processes can be used to analyse the availability,
reliability, and maintainability of systems.
• A system is made of a number of components n, each of which at
any given time may be operating successfully or not.
• The successful operation of the entire system depends on the
operation or failure of its components. Therefore, the system
may exist in one of two states.
• An operating state, where the system is operational even if
some of its components have failed. A fully operational system is
the one in which no components have failed.
• A failed state, where the system is not operational because of
the failure of one or more of its components.
• Such modelling provides a clear representation of all
the states of a system as well as the transition between
these states.
• The failure of individual components in a system is also
readily modelled using this method.
• One disadvantage, however, is that for large systems
with many components, it is difficult to draw a diagram.
• This is because for a system of n components, each
with a failed or operating state, the number of states
that exist is equal to 2n.
Systems Availability Analyses
• A step-by-step approach of the state–space method is
demonstrated through the following example of a system with
two repairable components.
• Step 1: Constructing the Diagram
• Figure 1 shows a diagram for the two component system.
There are four states:
Fig. 1 Diagram for a two component repairable system for availability analyses
Step 2: Constructing the Transition Matrix
Step 3: Applying Markov Approach
Step 4: Full Probability Condition
Step 5: Solving the Markov Matrix Equation
Using Linear Algebra
Example of Markov Chains for Reliability
Analyses
• A simple system with one active component named primary system and
one standby redundant component named secondary system is
connected with another component, i.e., switch. Figure 2 shows this
system.
• When switch fails, it is unable to switch. The failure of the switch
matters, if it is required to switch from the primary to the secondary
system.
• If the switch fails after the standby spare is already in use, then the
system can continue operation.
• However, if the switch fails before the primary unit fails, then the
secondary system cannot be turned on and the system fails when the
primary unit fails.
• The order in which the primary system and switch fail determines
whether the system continues operation.

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