Probability Distribution

Probability can be calculated for a specific event and not for the series
of events. In an experiment of rolling a dice, we can calculate
probability of getting exactly 4, but we can not calculate probability of
getting 4 or less. This becomes series of probabilities that include 4, 3,
2, 1
• Random variable is a variable that contains the outcomes of a chance
experiment

• Experiment of identifying members in different families – 1,2,3,5……

(discrete random variable: if the set of all possible values is at most a
finite or a countably infinite number of possible values)

• Experiment of measuring time between two tasks – 0 to n seconds….

(continuous random variable: take on values at every point over a given
interval)
 Probability
Distribution

Discrete Continuous
Distribution Distribution

Binomial Poisson Hypergeometric Uniform Normal Exponential

Distribution Distribution Distribution Distribution Distribution Distribution
 Discrete Distribution
• Discrete Distribution can find probability of series of events
when event occurs at regular interval of time
• If 6 people are selected randomly and how many of them are left
handed, is to be determine, the random variable produced is discrete
• Discrete Distribution Consists of

1. Binomial Distribution
2. Poisson Distribution
3. Hypergeometric Distribution (not in syllabus)
 Binomial Distribution
• “Bi” means two
• Any single trial of an experiment contains only two possible outcomes: success
and failure (product can be ok or defective, student can pass or fail)
• Assumptions:
• Each experiment involves ‘n’ identical trials
• Each trial has only two possible outcomes
• Each trial is independent of the previous trial
• P = probability of getting success
• q = probability of getting failure (p and q remain constant throughout the
experiment)
• p+q=1
• Formula
 Binomial Distribution
Ex. The survey found that 65% of all financial consumers were very satisfied
with their primary financial institution. Suppose 8 financial consumers are
sampled randomly. What is the probability that exactly 5 of the 8 are very
satisfied with their primary financial institution?

Ex. According to information resources, Brand A controls 10% of the total

market for cookies. Suppose 7 purchasers of cookies are selected randomly
from the population, what is the probability that fewer than four purchasers
select brand A?
• Ex. Assuming that half of the population is vegetarian, so that choice of an
individual being a vegetarian is 1/2. If a sample of 10 individuals is taken,
what is the probability that three or less are vegetarians?

H.W.

• Ex. The incidence of occupational disease in an industry is such that the

workers have a 20% chance of suffering from it. What is the probability
that out of 6 workers, 4 or more will have a disease?
• Ex. Assume that on an average one telephone number out
of 10 is busy. What is the probability that if 6 randomly
selected telephone numbers are called

1. Not more than 3 will be busy?

2. at least 3 of them will be busy?

 Poisson Distribution
• Focuses only on the number of discrete occurrences over some interval
• Event occurs during some interval
• Poisson distribution describes the occurrence of rare events
• Each occurrence is independent of the other occurrences
• The occurrences range from 0 to infinity
Ex: Number of accidents at a chemical plant per month, No. of telephone calls per
minute, No. of cases of disease per 1000 people
• Average is denoted as lamda (λ)
• Formula
• NOTE: value of λ lamda must be constant and interval also must be
constant, if not, make it same and find new lamda
 Poisson Distribution
Ex. Bank customers arrive randomly on weekday afternoons at an average of 3.2
customers every 4 minutes.

1. What is the probability of exactly five customers arriving in a 4 minute

interval on a weekday afternoon?

2. What is the probability of having more than seven customers in a 4

minute interval?

3. Find the probability of getting exactly 10 customers during an 8 minute

interval.
 Poisson Distribution
Ex.: If a real estate office sells 1.6 houses on an average weekday
and sales of houses on weekdays are Poisson distributed,
Determine following:
1. The probability of selling exactly four houses in one day.
2. Probability of selling No houses in one day.
3. Probability of selling 10 or more houses in one day.
4. Probability of selling exactly four houses in two days
 Poisson Distribution

The average number of annual trips per family to amusement

parks in the US is Poisson distributed, with a mean of 0.6 trips
per year. An American family is selected at randomly, analyze
following probabilities:
1. The family did not make trip to an amusement park last year.
2. The family took exactly one trip last year.
3. The family took two or more trips last year
4. Three or fewer trips over three years period
 Continuous Distribution
• Based on continuous random variables
• These variables take on values at every point over a given
interval
• These variables are generated from the experiments in
which things are measured and not counted
• Ex. Measuring time, length, weight etc.
• In continuous distributions, probabilities of outcomes
occurring between particular points are determined by
calculating area under the curve between those points
• The entire area under the curve is 1
 Continuous Distribution
• Uniform Distribution
• Normal Distribution
• Hypergeometric Distribution
 Continuous Distribution
Normal Distribution

• Also known as Gaussian distribution

• It has bell shaped curve
• It is symmetric distribution about its mean
• It is asymptotic to the horizontal axis
• Area of the curve is 1
• As distribution is symmetric, area of the distribution on each
side of the curve is 0.5
• Formula
 Continuous Distribution
Normal Distribution

Ex. The CMAT exam scores are normally distributed. The mean
CMAT score is 494 and SD is 100.
1. What is the probability that randomly selected score is between
600 and mean?
2. Determine the probability of obtaining a score greater than 700.
3. Calculate the probability of randomly drawing a score that is 550
or less?
4. Analyze the probability of getting a score of less than 400.
5. Obtain probability of randomly obtaining a score between 300
and 600.
6. Determine probability of getting a score between 350 and 450.
 Continuous Distribution
Normal Distribution

• Ex. The reports show that the mean height for a class A
warehouse in the US is 22 feet. Suppose heights are
normally distributed and SD is 4 feet. A class A warehouse is
randomly selected:
1. Determine the probability that the height is greater than 17
feet.
2. Calculate the probability that the height is less than 13 feet.
3. Analyze the probability of the height being between 25 and 31
feet.
 Continuous Distribution
Normal Distribution

• Ex. East-east Airlines has the policy of employing only Indian

women whose height is between 62 inches and 69 inches. If
the height of Indian women is normally distributed with a
mean of 64 inches and SD of 3 inches, out of 1000
applications received, find the number of applicants that
would be:
1. Too tall
2. Too short
3. Of acceptable height
 Continuous Distribution
Normal Distribution

Empirical Rule: used to state approximate percentage of

values that lie within given number of standard deviations
from the mean if data is normally distributed
• This rule is used for three numbers of SDs; 1σ, 2σ, and 3σ
Distance from Mean Values within Distance
μ +/- 1σ 68%
μ +/- 2σ 95%
μ +/- 3σ 99.7%
• Use of Empirical Rule:
• Data follows normal distribution. Mean salary is $90,000. And the
Standard deviation is $5,000.
• So out of the entire population, 68% of the accountants are drawing
a salary ranging between +/- 1Standard Deviations from the Mean.
As the Mean is $90,000 and the Standard Deviation is $5,000. So
68% of all the accountants in the US are being paid in the range of
$90,000 +/- (1*$5,000). That is within $85,000 to $95,000
• 95% of all the accountants in the US are being paid in the range of
Mean +/- 2 Standard Deviations. $90,000 +/- (2*5000). So the range
is $80,000 to $100,000.
• 99.7% of all accountants are drawing salaries ranging from Mean +/-
3Standard Deviations. That is 90,000 +/- (3*5000). The range is
$75,000 to $105,000
THANK YOU