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Laws of Probability

The document provides an introduction to probability, explaining key concepts such as events, outcomes, and rules of probability, including the union, intersection, and complement of events. It includes examples like coin tosses and blood types to illustrate how to calculate probabilities and the importance of understanding disjoint events. Additionally, it covers conditional probability and Bayes' theorem, demonstrating how prior knowledge can influence the probability of an event.

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16 views29 pages

Laws of Probability

The document provides an introduction to probability, explaining key concepts such as events, outcomes, and rules of probability, including the union, intersection, and complement of events. It includes examples like coin tosses and blood types to illustrate how to calculate probabilities and the importance of understanding disjoint events. Additionally, it covers conditional probability and Bayes' theorem, demonstrating how prior knowledge can influence the probability of an event.

Uploaded by

tapanmanna11111
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Laws of probability

Introduction to probability
Probability is the measure of the likelihood
that an event will occur.
Toss a fair coin three times
Let’s list each possible outcome (or possible result):
{HHH, THH, HTH, HHT, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT}
Now let’s define the following events:
Event A: “Getting no H”
Event B: “Getting exactly one H”
Event C: “Getting at least one H”
Note that each event is indeed a statement about the outcome that the
experiment is going to produce. In practice, each event corresponds to some
collection (subset) of the possible outcomes.
Event A: “Getting no H” → TTT
Event B: “Getting exactly one H” → HTT, THT, TTH
Event C: “Getting at least one H” → HTT, THT, TTH, THH, HTH, HHT, HHH
Remember, since H and T are equally likely on each toss, and
since there are 8 possible outcomes, the probability of each
outcome is 1/8.
EXAMPLE: Birth Defects
Suppose we randomly select three children and we are interested in the
probability that none of the children have any birth defects.
We use the notation D to represent a child was born with a birth defect
and N to represent the child born with NO birth defect. We can list the
possible outcomes just as we did for the coin toss, they are:
{DDD, NDD, DND, DDN, DNN, NDN, NND, NNN}
Are the events DDD (all three children are born with birth defects) and
NNN (none of the children are born with birth defects) equally likely?
It should be reasonable to you that P(NNN) is much larger than
P(DDD).
This is because P(N) and P(D) are not equally likely events.
It is rare (certainly not 50%) for a randomly selected child to be born
with a birth defect.
Definitions
Union: The union of two sets is a new set that
contains all of the elements that are in at least one
of the two sets. The union is written as A∪B.
Intersection: The intersection of two sets is a new
set that contains all of the elements that are in both
sets. The intersection is written as A∩B.
Complement: The opposite of an event. That is, the set of
all outcomes of an experiment that are not included in an
event. The complement of event A is written AC
Rules of Probability

Probability Rule One:


For any event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.

Probability Rule Two:


The sum of the probabilities of all possible
outcomes is 1.
EXAMPLE: Blood Types

All human blood can be typed as O, A, B or AB.


In addition, the frequency of the occurrence of these blood
types varies by ethnic and racial groups.

What is the probability of the person having blood type A?


Answer: Our intuition tells us that since the four blood types O, A, B, and AB exhaust all
the possibilities, their probabilities together must sum to 1, which is the probability of a
“certain” event (a person has one of these 4 blood types for certain).
Since the probabilities of O, B, and AB together sum to 0.44 + 0.1 + 0.04 = 0.58, the
probability of type A must be the remaining 0.42 (1 – 0.58 = 0.42):
Probability Rule Three (The Complement
Rule):
P(not A) = 1 – P(A)
EXAMPLE: Blood Types

•A person with type A can donate blood to a person with type A or AB.
•A person with type B can donate blood to a person with type B or AB.
•A person with type AB can donate blood to a person with type AB only.
•A person with type O blood can donate to anyone.
What is the probability that a randomly chosen person cannot donate blood to everyone?
In other words, what is the probability that
a randomly chosen person does not
have blood type O? We need to find
P(not O).
Using the Complement Rule, P(not O) = 1 –
P(O) = 1 – 0.44 = 0.56.
The distinction between events that can
happen together and those that cannot is an
important one.
Disjoint: Two events that cannot occur at
the same time are called disjoint or
mutually exclusive.
It should be clear from the picture that
in the first case, where the events are NOT
disjoint, P(A and B) ≠ 0
in the second case, where the events ARE
disjoint, P(A and B) = 0.
EXAMPLE:
Consider the following two events:
A — a randomly chosen person has blood type A, and
B — a randomly chosen person has blood type B.
We are going to assume that each person can have only one blood type. Therefore,
it is impossible for the events A and B to occur together.
Events A and B are DISJOINT
On the other hand …
EXAMPLE:
Consider the following two events:
A — a randomly chosen person has blood type A
B — a randomly chosen person is a woman.
In this case, it is possible for events A and B to occur together.
Events A and B are NOT DISJOINT.
Probability Rule Four (The Addition Rule
for Disjoint Events):
If A and B are disjoint events, then P(A or
B) = P(A) + P(B).
EXAMPLE: Blood Types

What is the probability that a randomly chosen person is a


potential donor for a person with blood type A?
From the information given, we know that being a potential
donor for a person with blood type A means having blood type A
or O.
We therefore need to find P(A or O). Since the events A and O are
disjoint, we can use the addition rule for disjoint events to get:
P(A or O) = P(A) + P(O) = 0.42 + 0.44 = 0.86.
It is easy to see why adding the probability actually makes sense.
If 42% of the population has blood type A and 44% of the
population has blood type O,
then 42% + 44% = 86% of the population has either blood type A
or O, and thus are potential donors to a person with blood type A.
When A and B are not necessarily disjoint.
Probability Rule Five:
The General Addition Rule: P(A or B) =
P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B).
EXAMPLE: Periodontal Status
and Gender
We can calculate any probability in this scenario if we can
determine how many individuals satisfy the event or
combination of events.
P(Male) = 3009/8027 = 0.3749
P(Female) = 5018/8027 = 0.6251
P(Healthy) = 3750/8027 = 0.4672
P(Not Healthy) = P(Gingivitis or Perio) = (2419 + 1858)/8027 =
4277/8027 = 0.5328

We also previously found that


P(Male AND Healthy) = 1143/8027 = 0.1424
Recall rule 5, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A
and B). We now use this rule to calculate
P(Male OR Healthy)
P(Male or Healthy) = P(Male) + P(Healthy)
– P(Male and Healthy) = 0.3749 + 0.4672 –
0.1424 = 0.6997 or about 70%
Conditional probability
Conditional probability is a measure of the probability of
an event given that (by assumption, presumption, assertion
or evidence) another event has occurred
Given two events A and B of a probability space
with P(B) > 0, the conditional probability of A given B is
defined as the quotient of the probability of the joint of
events A and B, and the probability of B:
Example
The probability that it is Friday and that a student is absent
is 0.03. Since there are 5 school days in a week, the
probability that it is Friday is 0.2. What is the probability
that a student is absent given that today is Friday?

Solution: P(Absent|Friday) = P(Friday and Absent) /


P(Friday) = 0.03/ 0.2 = 0.15 = 15%
Bayes' theorem
In probability theory and statistics, Bayes’
theorem describes the probability of an event, based on
prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the
event.
Example
You might be interested in finding out a patient’s probability
of having liver disease if they are an alcoholic.
A could mean the event “Patient has liver disease.” Past data tells you that 10% of
patients entering your clinic have liver disease. P(A) = 0.10.
B could mean the litmus test that “Patient is an alcoholic.” Five percent of the
clinic’s patients are alcoholics. P(B) = 0.05.
You might also know that among those patients diagnosed with liver disease, 7% are
alcoholics. This is your B|A: the probability that a patient is alcoholic, given that
they have liver disease, is 7%.
Bayes’ theorem tells you:
P(A|B) = (0.07 * 0.1)/0.05 = 0.14
In other words, if the patient is an alcoholic, their chances of having liver disease
is 0.14 (14%). This is a large increase from the 10% suggested by past data. But
it’s still unlikely that any particular patient has liver disease.

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