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Module IV - Dca

Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) is a widely used technique for evaluating oil and gas reserves and predicting future production based on historical production trends. The method relies on the assumption that past performance will continue, characterized by factors such as initial production rate, curvature, and rate of decline, with mathematical expressions proposed by Arps. DCA includes exponential, harmonic, and hyperbolic decline models, each with specific equations and assumptions necessary for accurate predictions.

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16 views24 pages

Module IV - Dca

Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) is a widely used technique for evaluating oil and gas reserves and predicting future production based on historical production trends. The method relies on the assumption that past performance will continue, characterized by factors such as initial production rate, curvature, and rate of decline, with mathematical expressions proposed by Arps. DCA includes exponential, harmonic, and hyperbolic decline models, each with specific equations and assumptions necessary for accurate predictions.

Uploaded by

siddheshmandhare2905
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Decline Curve

Analysis
An Overview
• One of the most extensively used technique of
data analysis for evaluating oil and gas reserves
and for prediction of future production
• Based on assumption that past production trend
with it’s controlling factors will continue in the
Decline future and therefore can be extrapolated
• The method of extrapolation of a ‘trend’ for
Curve predicting future production must satisfy the
condition that the factors which caused changes

Analysis in past performance ie decline in production rate


will continue in the same in the future.
• Decline curves are characterized by three factors:
• Initial or current production rate
• Curvature of the decline
• Rate of decline
Decline Curve
Analysis
• Arps proposed that the curvature of
production rate vs time can be expressed
mathematically by one of the hyperbolic
family of equations
• Exponential decline
• Harmonic decline
• Hyperbolic decline
• Nearly all DCA is based on empirical
relationships of production rate vs time given
by Arps (1945)
Decline Curve Analysis

• The instantaneous decline rate ‘D’ is defined as the rate of change of natural logarithm of
the production rate i.e. ln(q) with respect to time

• Parameters calculated using classical fit of the historical data, namely instantaneous
decline rate D and the exponent b, can be used to predict future production
• Based on the decline behaviour, the value of b ranges from 0 to 1, and accordingly Arps’
equation can be conveniently expressed in following three forms
Decline Curve Analysis
Decline Curve Analysis

• Should be noted that above set equations is only applicable when the
reservoir is flowing under pseudo steady state conditions

• List of inherent assumptions that must be satisfied before performing DCA


• The well is draining from a constant drainage area
• The well is producing at or near capacity
• The well is produced at constant flowing BHP
Decline Curve Analysis

• The area under the decline curve q vs time between times t1 and t2 is a measure of
cumulative gas (or oil) production during this period expressed mathematically as:

• Replacing qt in above expression with the three individual expressions that describe the
decline curves and integrating gives:
Decline Curve Analysis
Decline Curve Analysis

• Care must be taken while using the expressions for cumulative gas (or oil) and flow rate
such that units for rates qi, qt must match with the time unit of decline rate
• For eg: if the flow rate is measured in scf/month (or stb/month), the decline rate D must have unit of
1/month
• Note that traditional Arps’ equation gives reasonable estimate of reserves but completely
ignores the flowing pressure data
• As a result, it can overestimate or underestimate the reserves
Exponential Decline (b = 0)

• Mathematical expressions to represent exponential decline are as follows:

Or linearly as

Similarly,
Or linearly as
Exponential Decline

• Graphical representation of such plot indicates that the plot of qt vs t on a semilog scale or
a plot of qt vs Gp(t) on a Cartesian scale will result in a straight line
Exponential Decline

• Simplest, most widely used and conservative decline method


• Most widely used in the industry for following reasons:
• Many wells follow constant decline over a significant life of the well and will deviate from this trend toward
the end of this period
• The mathematics involved in easier to use compared to other line types
Exponential Decline

• Steps to be followed:
1. Plot qt vs Gp on a cartesian plot and qt vs time on semi log scale
2. For both plots, draw best straight line possible
3. Extrapolate st line qt vs Gp to Gp = 0, which intercepts the Y axis with a flow rate value
that is identified as qi
4. Calculate the initial decline rate Di by selecting a point on the Cartesian st line with
coordinates (qt, Gpt) or on a semilog st line with coordinates (qt, t) and solve for Di
OR

5. Calculate time to reach economic flow rate qa and the corresponding cum gas (or oil)
production
Harmonic Decline (b = 1)

• Harmonic decline is described by following expressions:

• The above two expressions can be rearranged and expressed respectively as:
Harmonic Decline (b = 1)

• The above two expressions suggest that the plot of 1/qt vs t on a cartesian scale will yield a
st line with slope (Di/qi) and intercept of 1/qt
• Plot of qt vs Gp(t) on a semilog scale will yield a st line with negative slope of (Di/qi) and
intercept of qi
Harmonic Decline (b = 1)

• Time to reach economic flow rate and the corresponding cumulative production is calculated as:
Hyperbolic Decline (0<b<1)

• Two governing relations for a reservoir or well when its production follows hyperbolic
decline behavior are given by equations:
Hyperbolic Decline (0<b<1)
• Following simplified iterative method to be used to determine Di and b from historical
production data:
1. Plot qt vs t on a semilog scale and draw a smooth curve through the points
2. Extend the curve to intercept Y axis at t = 0 and read qi
3. Select the other end point as (t2, q2)
4. Determine the coordinates of middle point on the smooth curve that corresponds to (t1,
q1) with q1 obtained as follows: . The corresponding value of t1 is read from the curve.
5. Solve the following expression iteratively for b as:
The Newton-Raphson iterative method can be employed to solve the above non-linear
expression by using following recursion technique:
Hyperbolic Decline (0<b<1)

Where:

Starting with initial value of b = 0.5, the method will usually converge after 4-5 iterations
6. Solve for Di using calculated value of b from step 5 and coordinates ( t2, q2) to give:
Hyperbolic Decline (0<b<1)
Effect of Restricted Rate

• Many cases where well do not produce at full capacity


• Figure here shows model for estimating the time pattern for
production where rate is restricted
• Fig shows well produces at a restricted rate qr for a total
time tr with cumulative production Gpr
• Proposed methodology for estimating restricted time tr is to
set cumulative production Gp(tr) that would have occurred
at normal decline from qi to qr equal to Gpr
• Eventually the well will reach time tr where it begins to
decline with similar behaviour as that of other wells from
the area
Effect of Restricted Rate

• Proposed method for prediction of decline rate behavior


for a well under restricted flow is based on assumption
that following data is available and applicable to well:
• Coefficient of Aprs’ equation i.e. Di and b by analogy with
other wells
• Abandonment (economic) flow rate, qa
• Ultimate recoverable gas reserves, Gpa
• Allowable (restricted) gas flow rate qr
Effect of Restricted Rate

• Methodology is summarized in following steps:


1. Calculate initial flow rate that would have occurred without any restrictions
2. Calculate cumulative gas production during restricted flow period:

3. Regardless the type of decline, calculate the total time of the restricted flow rate from
4. Generate well performance profile as a function of time with the help of appropriate equations

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