Data Analytics with Python

Some Special
Distributions
• Discrete
– Binomial
– Poisson
– Hyper geometric
• Continuous
– Uniform
– Exponential
– Normal

2
 Binomial
Distribution
• Let us consider the purchase decisions of the next three customers who
enter a store.
• On the basis of past experience, the store manager estimates the
probability that any one customer will make a purchase is .30.
• What is the probability that two of the next three customers will
make a
purchase?

3
Tree diagram for the Martin clothing store
problem

4
Trial
Outcomes

5
Graphical representation of the probability
distribution for the number of customers
making a purchase
x P(x)
0 0.7 x 0.7 x 0.7=0.343

1 0.3x0.7x07+
0.7x0.3x0.7+
0.7x0.7x0.3 = 0.441

2 0.189
3 0.027

6
 Binomial Distribution-
Assumtions
• Experiment involves n identical trials
• Each trial has exactly two possible outcomes: success and failure
• Each trial is independent of the previous trials
• p is the probability of a success on any one trial
q = (1-p) is the probability of a failure on any one trial
• p and q are constant throughout the experiment
• X is the number of successes in the n trials

7
 Binomial Distribution

• Probability n!
P(X ) X n for 0  X
function

X !n  X p q
n
X
!
• Mean
value n
• Variance and
p
standard  np
2

deviation q np
   
2
q
8
 Binomial Table
SELECTED VALUES FROM THE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY TABLE
EXAMPLE: n = 10, x = 3, p = .40; f (3) = .2150

9
 Mean and
•
Variance
Suppose that for the next month the Clothing Store forecasts 1000
customers will enter the store.
• What is the expected number of customers who will make a
purchase?
• The answer is μ = np = (1000)(.3) = 300.
• For the next 1000 customers entering the store, the variance
and standard deviation for the number of customers who will
make a purchase are

10
 Poisson
Distribution
• Describes discrete occurrences over a continuum or interval
• A discrete distribution
• Describes rare events
• Each occurrence is independent any other occurrences.
• The number of occurrences in each interval can vary from zero to infinity.
• The expected number of occurrences must hold constant throughout the
experiment.

11
 Poisson Distribution:
Applications
• Arrivals at queuing systems
– airports -- people, airplanes, automobiles, baggage
– banks -- people, automobiles, loan applications
– computer file servers -- read and write operations

• Defects in manufactured goods

– number of defects per 1,000 feet of extruded copper wire
– number of blemishes per square foot of painted surface
– number of errors per typed page

12
 Poisson Distribution
• Probability function
 e 
X

P( X ) for X  0,1, 2,
 X 3,...
!
where:
  long  run average
e  2. 718282... (the base of natural
logarithms )
Variance Standard deviation


Mean value
 
13
 Poisson Distribution: Example

  3.2 customers/4   3.2 customers/4

minutes X = 10 minutes X = 6
customers/8 minutes customers/8 minutes
Adjusted  Adjusted 
=6.4 customers/8 minutes =6.4 customers/8
X 
P(X)  e
X 
P(X)  e
minutes
= =
X! 10 6.4 X ! 6 6.4
P(X 6.4 e  P(X 6.4 e 
=10)= 0.0528 =6)= 0.1586
10! 6!

14
 Poisson Probability
Table Example: μ =
10, x = 5; f (5) =
.0378

15
 The Hypergeometric
Distribution
• The binomial distribution is applicable when selecting from a
finite population with replacement or from an infinite population
without replacement.

• The hypergeometric distribution is applicable when selecting

from a finite population without replacement.
 Hyper Geometric
Distribution
• Sampling without replacement from a finite population

• The number of objects in the population is denoted N.

• Each trial has exactly two possible outcomes, success and failure.

• Trials are not independent

• X is the number of successes in the n trials

• The binomial is an acceptable approximation, if N/10 > n Otherwise it is not.

17
 The Hypergeometric Distribution
Example
• Different computers are checked from 10 in the department. 4 of the 10
computers have illegal software loaded.
• What is the probability that 2 of the 3 selected computers have illegal
software loaded?
• So, N = 10, n = 3, k = 4, X = 2

 k  N  k 
  4  
 X
6  n  X    (6 )
P ( X  2 )      2  1 (1
62)0

 N   1 0  0.3

 n   3 
• The probability that 2 of the 3 selected computers have
illegal software loaded is .30, or 30%.
 Continuous Probability
Distributions
• A continuous random variable is a variable that can assume any value on
a continuum (can assume an uncountable number of values)
– thickness of an item
– time required to complete a task
– temperature of a solution
– height
• These can potentially take on any value, depending only on the ability to
measure precisely and accurately.
 Continuous
Distributions

• Uniform
• Normal
• Exponential
 The Uniform
Distribution
• The uniform distribution is a probability distribution that has equal
probabilities for all possible outcomes of the random variable

• Because of its shape it is also called a rectangular distribution

 Uniform
Distribution
 1 for ax
b  a b 1
f (x)  
 0 ba
for all other f (x)
 values
Area = 1
a x b
Uniform Distribution: Mean and
Standard Deviation
M e a n
a + b
 =
2

Standard Deviation

ba
 
12
 The Uniform
Distribution
Example: Uniform probability distribution over the range 2 ≤ X ≤ 6:

1
f(X) = 6 - 2 for 2 ≤ X ≤ 6
= .25
f(X
) a b 2 6
μ  
.25 2 2
 -4a) 2
(b (6 - 2) 2
σ  
2 6 X  12 12 1 .1547
 Uniform Distribution
Example
 1 for 41  x 
f ( x)  47  41 47 1
6
 0 for all other values f 1

( x)

47  41

41
Area = 1 47 x
Uniform Distribution: Mean and
Standard Deviation
M e a n M e an

 = a + b
 =
4 1+ 4 7

88


44
Standard Deviation
2 2
Standard Deviation 2

ba 47  41 6  1.
   
732
12 12

3. 464
 Uniform Distribution
Probability

P( x 1  X x ) x x
2 1
2
  ba 45  42 1

2
f (x) 47  41

45  42
P(42  X  45)47
  41 Area
= 0.5
1 2

41
47 x
 Example : Uniform
Distribution
• Consider the random variable x representing the flight time of an airplane
traveling from Delhi to Mumbai.
• Suppose the flight time can be any value in the interval from 120 minutes
to 140 minutes.
• Because the random variable x can assume any value in that interval, x is a
continuous rather than a discrete random variable

29
 Example : Uniform
Distribution contd….
• Let us assume that sufficient actual flight data are available to conclude
that the probability of a flight time within any 1-minute interval is the
same as the probability of a flight time within any other 1-minute interval
contained in the larger interval from 120 to 140 minutes.
• With every 1-minute interval being equally likely, the random variable x is
said to have a uniform probability distribution.

30
Uniform Probability Distribution for Flight time

31
Probability of a flight time
between 120 and
130 minutes

32
 Exponential Probability
•
Distribution
The exponential probability distribution is useful in describing the time it
takes to complete a task.
• The exponential random variables can be used to describe:

Time required Distance between

Time between
to complete major defects
vehicle
a questionnaire in a highway
arrivals at a
toll booth
 Exponential Probability
•
Distribution
Density Function

1
f ( x )  e 
x /

where:  = mean
e=
2.71828
 Exponential Probability
Distribution
• Suppose that x represents the loading time for a truck at loading dock and
follows such a distribution.
• If the mean, or average, loading time is 15 minutes ( μ = 15),
the appropriate probability density function for x is
Exponential Distribution for the
loading Dock Example
Exponential Probability
Distribution
Cumulative
Probabilities
 xo /
P(x  x0 )  1 
e
where:
x0 = some specific value of x
 Example: Exponential Probability Distribution

• The time between arrivals of cars at a Petrol pump follows an exponential

probability distribution with a mean time between arrivals of 3 minutes.

• The Petrol pump owner would like to know the probability that the time

between two successive arrivals will be 2 minutes or less.

 Example: Petrol Pump
Problem

f(x
)
.4 P(x < 2) = 1 - 2.71828-2/3 = 1 - .5134 = 4866
.3
.2
.1
x
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time Between Successive Arrivals (mins.)
 Relationship between the Poisson
and Exponential
Distributions
• The Poisson distribution
• provides an appropriate description of the number of occurrences
• per interval

•The exponential distribution provides an appropriate description of the

length of the interval between occurrences
Mean of Poisson and Mean of
Exponential Distributions
• Because the average number of arrivals is 10 cars per hour, the average
time between cars arriving is
42
 The Normal Distribution:
Properties
• ‘Bell Shaped’
• Symmetrical f(X)
• Mean, Median and Mode are equal
• Location is characterized by the mean, μ σ
• Spread is characterized by the μ
standard deviation, σ
Mean = Median = Mode
• The random variable has an infinite
theoretical range: - to +
 The Normal Distribution:
Density Function
The formula for the normal probability density function is

2
1  1  (X μ) 
f(X) e 2  
 2π
 constant approximated by 2.71828
Where e = the mathematical
π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
μ = the population mean
σ = the population standard deviation
X = any value of the continuous variable
Chap 6-44
 The Normal
Distribution: Shape

By varying the parameters μ and σ, we obtain different normal

distributions