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DiseaseDynamicsSP EpidemicsModels

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6 views23 pages

DiseaseDynamicsSP EpidemicsModels

Uploaded by

Mado Saeed
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Work and play:

Disease spread, social behaviour


and data collection in schools

Dr Jenny Gage, Dr Andrew Conlan, Dr Ken Eames


Modelling the spread of diseases
with mathematics
• Mathematicians try to find ways to model how diseases
spread.
• The Standing Disease (an activity in the presentation
Epidemics: Introduction) is a simple way to do this …
• … but it doesn’t explain why after a rapid rise in
infections there is a peak, and then the rate of infection
starts to drop.

Deaths
800
600
400
200

5 10 15 20 25 30Weeks
Modelling the spread of diseases
with mathematics
• Mathematicians try to find ways to model how diseases
spread.
• The Standing Disease (an activity in the presentation
Epidemics: Introduction) is a simple way to do this …
• … but it doesn’t explain why after a rapid rise in
infections there is a peak, and then the rate of infection
starts to drop.

Deaths
800
600
400
200

5 10 15 20 25 30Weeks
R0 Reproductive Ratio R0

Definition: Average number of people an


infected person infects at the start of an
epidemic.
R0 Reproductive Ratio R0

Definition: Average number of people an


infected person infects at the start of an
epidemic.

What is R0 for
the Standing
Disease?
R0 Reproductive Ratio R0

Definition: Average number of people an


infected person infects at the start of an
epidemic.

R0 = 2
R0 Reproductive Ratio R0

Definition: Average number of people an


infected person infects at the start of an
epidemic.
Deaths
R0 = 2 800
600
400
200 R0 = ??
Weeks
5 10 15 20 25 30
R0 Reproductive Ratio R0

R0 is a measure of how quickly an epidemic


will take off…
R0 Reproductive Ratio R0

R0 is a measure of how quickly an epidemic


will take off…
R0 Reproductive Ratio R0

R0 is a measure of how quickly an epidemic


will take off…
R0 Reproductive Ratio R0

R0 is a measure of how quickly an epidemic


will take off…
R0 > 1

Cases increase
each step
R0 Reproductive Ratio R0

R0 is a measure of how quickly an epidemic


will take off…
R0 > 1

Cases increase
each step
Discussion
So we can understand the
start of an outbreak, but
what happens next?
• Why does the number of
cases peak and then
decrease?
• Is there no one left to
infect?
• Has the disease
changed its nature?
Discussion
So we can understand the
start of an outbreak, but
what happens next?
• Why does the number of
cases peak and then
decrease?
• Is there no one left to
infect?
• Has the disease changed
its nature?

Make a mathematical model


to explore what is happening …
26-Card Epidemic
1. Put the 26 black cards down in a pile face up.
2. Put the 26 red cards in a pile face down – this is your population.
3. Pick one card from this population and put it facing up on the table – this is
the first infection (step 0).
4. It will be red, so replace it with a black card – this represents that person,
now recovered and back in the general population.
5. Shuffle the population cards, and put two cards face up on the table. These
are the new infections (step 1).
6. Put any black cards back into the population pack – these people are now
immune, so won’t get the infection again. Replenish the population pack
with black cards to replace the red ones you’ve put down.
7. Repeat items 5 and 6 until you pick only black cards. This is the end of the
epidemic, when there are no new infections.
8. Plot a graph to show how many new infections there are at each step.
9. Look at the shape of your graph. Does it look at all similar to the one on
the right below?
Infections

Step 0 1 2 3 4 Time
26-Card Epidemic
• What is the significance of keeping the population at 26?
• Any patterns?
– initial steps
– overall shape of graph
– duration
– variability
• What is the probability that no one new is infected at step 2?
• How might things change if:
– more than one person is infected at the start
– you have more cards
– each infected person infects 3 or 4 people rather than 2
• Is this a realistic model?
• How could you improve it?
Infections

Step 0 1 2 3 4 Time
Model
Everyone starts here:
not yet infected
Susceptible
Model
Everyone starts here:
not yet infected
Susceptible

Transmission

These people are unwell


and can infect others
Infected
Model
Everyone starts here:
not yet infected
Susceptible

Transmission

These people are unwell


and can infect others
Infected

Recovery

People recover & become


immune to infection
Recovered
Model
Everyone starts here:
not yet infected
Susceptible

Transmission

These people are unwell


and can infect others
Infected

Recovery

People recover & become


immune to infection
Recovered

Need to make assumptions about how people mix together.


The Network Disease
The Network Disease

• Like the Standing Disease but:


- before starting, everyone writes down the names
of two other people in the room.
• The first case picks the two they’ve written down to
infect.
• The next generation stands up and each pick their
two… and so on.

•How is this different from the standing


disease?
•How many steps to infect everyone?
Challenge the models

•Are they realistic enough?


•What else might be
important?

4000
3500
R0
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0 5 10 15

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