Lecture9 4 3 2006
Lecture9 4 3 2006
Learning Objectives:
• Describe the steps in hydrologic modeling
• Evaluate different types of hydrologic models
• Summarize the components of AGWA
Handouts: Assignments: 1
Design Point
3
5
6
Hydrologic/Watershed Modeling
Design Point
1
3
5
Typical Output
• Streamflow
• Subsurface Flow
• Depth to water table
Steps to Hydrologic Modeling
1. Delineate watershed
2. Obtain hydrologic and geographic data
3. Select modeling approach
4. Calibrate/Verify model
5. Use model for assessment/prediction/design
What is a Watershed?
• Area that topographically contributes to the
drainage to a point of interest
Natural Watershed
Points of Interest
• Road crossing
• Stream gage
• Reservoir inlet
• Wastewater treatment plant
• Location of stream restoration
Urban Watershed
98
100
98
100 98
103
100
108
110
105
98
99
97
100
103
100 Design Point
USGS Quad Map
Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
• Digital file that stores the elevation of the land
surface a specified grid cell size (e.g., 30 meters)
Steps to Hydrologic Modeling
1. Delineate watershed
2. Obtain hydrologic and geographic data
3. Select modeling approach
4. Calibrate/Verify model
5. Use model for assessment/prediction/design
Geographic Data
• Land cover • Land use
Land Cover
Forest
Oak Woodlands
Mesquite Woodlands
Grasslands
Desertscrub
Riparian
Agriculture
Urban
Water
Barren / Clouds
0 5 10 km
EM STATSGO
Hydrologic Data
• Meteorological Data
– Temperature
– Precipitation
– Wind speed
– Humidity
• Extrapolation of point
measurements
– Theissen Polygons
– Inverse distance weighting
Hydrologic Data Streamflow
• Hydrologic Data Design Point
1
– Streamflow 2
• Peak discharge
• Daily flow volume 3
5
– Groundwater level
Steps to Hydrologic Modeling
1. Delineate watershed
2. Obtain hydrologic and geographic data
3. Select modeling approach
4. Calibrate/Verify model
5. Use model for assessment/prediction/design
Modeling Approaches (examples)
TIME SCALE
Event-based Continuous Simulation
(minute to day) (days – years)
Empirical
Rational Method
Regression equ’s
SCS Unit Hydrograph Simple Model
Transfer Functions
Simple models
Physically-based
KINEROS
Based on physical
Stanford Watershed SWAT
processes
Model VIC-3L
Complicated
TOPMODEL TOPMODEL
Many parameters
Basis for Many Hydrologic Models
• Hydrologic Budget
Transpiration (T) (In – Out = Streamflow (Q)
ΔStorage)
Evaporation (E)
Groundwater out (GW out )
Reservoir
Precipitation (P)
Groundwater in (GWin)
Infiltration (I)
Watershed
• It Depends on:
– What time scale are you working at?
– What hydrologic quantity are you trying to
obtain?
– What data do you have for your watershed?
– How fast of a computer do you have?
Spatial Scaling of
Semi-Distributed
Models
Parameters assigned to
Lumped each grid cell, but cells Fully-Distributed
Parameters assigned to with same parameters are Parameters assigned to
each subbasin grouped each grid cell
A3
A1
A2
Stanford Watershed Model
(HSPF)
• Physically-based and continuous simulation
STANFORD WATERSHED MODEL
Process
Input
Potential ET
Precipitation Output
Actual ET Temperature Storage
Radiation Decision
Wind,Dewpoint ET - Evapotranspiration
* Parameters
n Order taken to
Snowmelt meet ET demand
CEPSC*
2 LSUR*
ET Interception Delayed Infiltration SLSUR*
Storage NSUR*
INFILT* Overland Flow
Direct
3 ET Infiltration UZSN* INTFW*
IRC*
LZSN* Upper Zone
Interflow
Lower Zone Storage
5 ET Storage PERC
LZETP* DEEPFR* AGWRC*
Groundwater
4 ET Storage
Deep or Inactive AGWETP*
1 ET Groundwater BASETP*
To Stream
Kinematic Runoff and Erosion Model
(KINEROS)
• Developed by USDA
• http://www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/kineros/
• Event oriented & physically based
• Describes the processes of
interception, infiltration, surface
runoff and erosion
TOPMODEL
• Semi-distributed &
physically-based Evapotranspiration
Pacific Ocean
Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-3L)
• Continuous simulation and physically-based
• Macroscale hydrologic model that solves full water
and energy balances
VIC-3L Example
Anamoly Three Layers Soil Moisture
( Upper Mississippi Basin)
200
100
Moisture (inch)
Anomaly Soil
0
Jan-50
-100 Sep-63 May-77 Feb-91 Oct-04
-200
Time (Month)
layer1 layer2 layer3
Steps to Hydrologic Modeling
1. Delineate watershed
2. Obtain hydrologic and geographic data
3. Select modeling approach
4. Calibrate/Verify model
5. Use model for assessment/prediction/design
Calibrating a Model
• Typically the model is calibrated against
observed streamflow data
• Depending on the model complexity,
parameters are adjusted until observed
streamflow equals model streamflow
• Which observed value to use:
– Qpeak
Qpeak
– Qvolume
Q tpeak Qvolume
– tpeak
t
Sensitive Parameters
• Precipitation
• Soil parameters
– Hydraulic conductivity
– Soil water holding capacity
• Evaporation (for continuous simulation)
• Flow routing parameters (for event-
based)
Uncertainties
• Precipitation
– Extrapolation of point to other areas
– Temporal resolution of data
• Soils information
– Surveys are based on site visits and then
extrapolated
• Routing parameters
– Usually assigned based on empirical studies
Steps to Hydrologic Modeling
1. Delineate watershed
2. Obtain hydrologic and geographic data
3. Select modeling approach
4. Calibrate/Verify model
5. Use model for assessment/prediction/design
Use of Models
• Assessment
– What happens if land use/land cover is
changed?
• Prediction
– Flood forecasting
• Design
– How much flow will occur in a 100 year
storm?
AUTOMATED GEOSPATIAL WATERSHED ASSESSMENT
A GIS-BASED WATERSHED MODELING TOOL
Phillip Guertin
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
Scott Miller
University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY
Project Background & Acknowledgements
• Long-Term Research Project
– Landscape Ecology Branch USDA-ARS
– 5 years David Goodrich
• Interdisciplinary Mariano Hernandez
– Watershed management
– Landscape ecology Averill Cate
– Atmospheric modeling Ian Burns
– Remote sensing
– GIS
Casey Tifft
• Multi-Agency Soren Scott
– USDA – ARS US-EPA
– US – EPA
– University of Arizona Bill Kepner
– University of Wyoming Darius Semmens
– USGS
•
Dan Heggem
Student Support
– 2 Post-Doc Bruce Jones
– 2 PhD Don Ebert
– 2 Masters
University of Arizona
Phil Guertin
University of Wyoming
Scott Miller
Introduction
• PC-based GIS tool for watershed modeling
– KINEROS & SWAT (modular)
• Investigate the impacts of land-use/cover change on
runoff, erosion, and water quality at multiple scales
• Compare and visualize results
• Targeted for use by research
scientists and management
specialists
• Useful in conducting TMDL
analyses
• Widely applicable
Soil and Water Assessment Tool
(SWAT)
• Daily time step
• Distributed: empirical and physically-based model
• Hydrology, sediment, nutrient, and pesticide yields
• Larger watersheds (> 1,000 km2)
• Similar effort used by BASINS
Abstract Routing Representation
71
73
to next channel
73 71
73 channel 73
pseudo-
channel 71
Kinematic Runoff and Erosion Model
(KINEROS2)
• Event-based (< minute time steps)
• Distributed: physically-based model with
dynamic routing
• Hydrology, erosion, sediment transport
• Smaller watersheds (< 100 km2) Abstract Routing Representation
71 71
72
74 73 73
72
74
AGWA ArcView Interface
AGWA Conceptual Design:
Inputs and Outputs
Watershed Delineation
using Digital Elevation Watershed Discretization Intersect model
Model (DEM) (model elements)
+ elements with
Soils
Land
Cover
external to
Run The Hydrologic Model & Import Results AGWA
Display/Compare Results
CURVE NUMBER
NLCD Hydrologic Soil Group
Land cover A B C D Cover (%)
High intensity residential (22) 81 88 91 93 15
Bare rock/sand/clay (31) 96 96 96 96 2
Forest (41) 55 75 80 50
Shrubland (51) 63 77 85 88 25
Grasslands/herbaceous (71) 80 87 93 70
Small grains (83) 65 76 84 88 80
KINEROS Parameter Estimation
Parameters based on soil texture (STATSGO, SSURGO, FAO)
Texture Ksat Suction Porosity Smax CV Sand Silt Clay Dist Kff
Clay 0.6 407.0 0.475 0.81 0.50 27 23 50 0.16 0.34
Fractured Bedrock 0.6 407.0 0.475 0.81 0.50 27 23 50 0.16 0.05
Clay Loam 2.3 259.0 0.464 0.84 0.94 32 34 34 0.24 0.39
Sandy Clay Loam 4.3 263.0 0.398 0.83 0.60 59 11 30 0.40 0.36
Silt 6.8 203.0 0.501 0.97 0.50 23 61 16 0.23 0.49
Loam 13.0 108.0 0.463 0.94 0.40 42 39 19 0.25 0.42
Sandy Loam 26.0 127.0 0.453 0.91 1.90 65 23 12 0.38 0.32
Gravel 210.0 46.0 0.437 0.95 0.69 27 23 50 0.16 0.15
AZ076
Components for MUID AZ061
Component 2
AZ067
45% Component 3
35%
Layer 2 2 9 inches
Layer 3 5
Parameter Manipulation (optional)
Can manually
change parameters
for each channel
and plane element
Color-ramping of
results for each
element to show Automated tracking of
spatial variability simulation inputs
Spatial and Temporal Scaling of Results
Using SWAT and KINEROS for integrated watershed assessment
Land cover change analysis and impact on hydrologic response
ARIZONA
Phoenix
#
Tucson #
SONORA
N
Pre-urbanization Post-urbanization
1973 Land cover 1997 Land cover
International
• NATO Committee on the Challenges to Modern Society (CCMS) – Integrated
hydrologic/ecological landscape change assessment
• Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy (SCERP) –
U.S./Mexico trans-border watershed management
• UNESCO Global Network for Water and Development Information (G-WADI) –
International arid-region hydrologic modeling
AGWA Milestones
• AGWA 1.1 released at the Fed. Interagency
Hydrologic Modeling Conference, July 2002
• Externally peer-evaluated through two separate federal review
processes (EPA/600/R-02/046 & ARS/137460)
• AGWA added to
• EPA Council for Regulatory Environmental Modeling (CREM) database
• NASA Applied Sciences Directorate model and analysis systems
• USGS Surface-water Modeling Interest Group archives