CHAPTER SIX

POPULATION OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN

Introduction
Human Population studied by many disciplines like Geography,
Demography, Economics, Epidemiology, Sociology and many more.
Their differences lie in the methodologies they employ and the
aspects they emphasize.
Since Geography is basically the study of regional/areal differences
in the distribution of natural and cultural phenomena, the study of
population in Geography aims at showing regional/spatial differences
on:
 population distribution and densities,
population numbers,
human-environment interactions,
population dynamics (fertility, mortality and migration), and
 population characteristics and qualities (age, sex education and
health composition etc.).
 Population Data: Uses and Sources
Uses of Population Data
 Regular and reliable population data are vital for:
 effective socioeconomic development planning and
administration.
to plan for the provision of infrastructures such as schools,
hospitals, roads, water and sewerage facilities, housing,
establishing voting district boundaries, estimating future tax
revenue and designing public programs.
crucial to administrators, businessmen, researchers,
academicians and planners.
influences production, distribution, consumption, defense and
administrative services at any administrative or natural unit
considered.
 Sources of Population Data
There are three conventional sources of obtaining population data
namely census, sample survey and vital registration.
A. Census
A census could be defined as the total process of collecting,
compiling and publishing demographic, economic and social data
pertaining at a specified time (s) to all persons in a defined
territory.
Its major characteristics include:
Universality: inclusion of all persons in a given area during the
count,
Periodicity: census undertaking at regular time intervals with
reference to a defined point of time usually 10 years and 5 years,
Simultaneity: undertaking census in a very limited time duration
called the census day/night,
Government sponsorship being an expensive endeavour, and
publication
There are two procedures for collecting census data: dejure and
defacto approaches
•Dejure approach: it involves counting people according to their usual
place of residence (where he/she lives most of the time). This system
gives a picture of the total permanent population of an area thereby
making it suitable for planning and administrative purposes.
•Defacto approach: each individual is recorded at the place where
he/she was found at the time of the census.
B. Sample Survey
This is a method in which a defined population/sample/ is selected with
the view that information acquired would represent the entire population.
This method is advantageous over census as:
 costs can be greatly reduced;
it is simple to administer and
taken much faster.
However, sample surveys have the inherent weaknesses related to
sampling errors and inadequate coverage thereby demanding caution
in their undertaking.
Data from most censuses and sample surveys include geographic
location, age, sex, marital status, citizenship, and place of birth,
relationship to the head of household, religion, educational
characteristics, occupation, fertility, income, language, ethnic
characteristics, disabilities and migration.
C. Vital Registration
Vital registration is a system of continuous, permanent, compulsory and
legal recording of the occurrence and the characteristics of vital events
like births, deaths, marriages, divorces, and adoptions.
Vital registration data tend to be more precise than that of
census/sample survey and the system provides time series data.
Despite the enormous usefulness of population information, it could be
noted that population data could suffer from inaccuracy resulting from:
poor and inadequately financed methods of collection;
poorly trained enumerator;
suspicion and ignorance of censuses and false statements specially of
age and income;
constant changes in administrations;
 Population Dynamics: Fertility, Mortality and Migration
The population of any particular region (country) grows/declines as a
result of the combined effect of the three demographic variables:
fertility, mortality and migration.
Ethiopia is endowed with a large and fast-growing population ranking 2nd
in Africa after Nigeria.
 According to the first ever census return of 1984, the population of
Ethiopia was 42.2 million. The estimated rate of growth of the population
in 1984 was 2.9 percent.
The total population grew to 53.5 million in the second census held in
1994. The country’s population reached about 73.8 million in 2007.
Based on projected data from CSA, Ethiopia has an estimated 2019
population of 112 million, which ranks 12th in the world, and the current
growth rate is about 2.6%.
The largest part of the population (80%) is rural based.
Like other developing countries, Ethiopia has a youthful population
where about 65 percent of the population is below 24 years of age.
The population is also unevenly distributed.
 7. Life Expectancy at birth: refers to the average number of years that
a newly born baby is expected to live. It is used as a summary measure
of the mortality experience of the whole population.

8. Natural Rate of Increase: is the difference between crude birth rate

and crude death rate expressed in percentage.
NRI= (C.B.R. - C.D.R.)

Trends in Fertility and Mortality rates in Ethiopia

Birth and death rates show significant spatiotemporal variation.
Clear differences in birth and death rates are emerging between rural
and urban areas of Ethiopia.
Urban areas have lower birth and death rates compared to rural areas
implying that living and health conditions are better and family planning
programme is gaining ground.
Women in rural areas have an average of 5.2 children, compared to 2.3
children among women in urban areas.
Looking at TFR by region, in 2016 fertility was the lowest in Addis
Ababa (1.8 children per woman) followed by Dire Dawa (3.1), Gambella
(3.5), and Amhara (3.7); while regions that have higher TFR rates are
Somali (7.2), Afar (5.5), Oromia (5.4), and Tigray (4.7).
Recently, fertility is showing a declining trend. Total fertility rate
(TFR) declined from 7.52 in 1984 to 6.74 in 1994, and currently, women
in Ethiopia have an average of 4.6 children.
Similarly, mortality rates are also showing a declining trend. Before
2000, almost all regional states recorded more than 100 infant deaths per
1,000 live births, but by 2011 infant mortality in all regions was lower
than 100, except for Benishangul Gumuz.
Mortality rates also show considerable variation by reigns. In 2016,
IMR at the country level was 54 where it was 48 in urban areas and 62 in
rural Ethiopia.
Accordingly, lower infant mortality rate was recorded in Addis Ababa
followed by Somali and Gambella; while higher IMR was recorded in
Benishangul, followed by SNNPR and Tigray.
Life expectancy at birth in Ethiopia increased from about 36.7
years in the 1960s to 62.6 years in 2016.
Female life expectancy (65.4 years) is about four years higher
than male life expectancy (61.2 years).
Life expectancy at birth is greater for urban areas than for rural
areas. It exceeds the national average in Addis Ababa; while the
lowest is in Benishangul- Gumuz (47 years) followed by SNNPR
(49 years).
The relatively high life expectancy and low infant mortality
rates for Addis Ababa may result from relatively easy access to
health services.
It is also important to note that the difference between developing
and developed countries in crude death rates is not as high as the
difference in birth rates. The main reason for this is some degree of
improvement in medical services in most developing countries
during the last few decades.
As opposed to declining death rates, birth rates have remained
high due to:
 Little family planning practices and lack of population
education;
Lower status of women
Early marriage, particularly of females;
Parents consideration of children as assets, though little obliged
for their education, health;
The relatively high infant and child mortality rates, that trigger
couples to have more births to compensate for the loses and
Perhaps religious influences.
Countries of the Horn of Africa have higher population growth
rate that exceeds 2.6 percent. Their population is growing faster
and annual addition to the total population is enormous.
Some of the consequences of this rapid population growth under
conditions of slowly growing economy include:
low per capita GNP
increased unemployment and under -employment
mounting social ills such as destitution, begging, theft,
prostitution
continuous inflation that erodes purchasing power of the
currency
shortage of cultivated land and food shortages
overcrowding of infrastructural and social facilities; housing
problems and increase in urban slums and squatter settlements
Environmental problems such as deforestation, soil erosion, loss
of biodiversity and pollution.
 Migration in Ethiopia and the Horn
Migration is a form of geographic mobility involving a permanent or
semi-permanent change of residence between clearly defined geographic
units.
An assessment of human mobility is pivotal for its diverse effects. Some
of the multifaceted implications of migration are:
Migration yields an increased level of urbanization;
It enhances rural-urban linkages in creating an integrated economy
It influences spatial population distribution
It negatively influences human fertility and mortality patterns and
levels; and affects age and sex composition of the population.
It is a means of achieving economic efficiency.
It can be a cause and consequence of inequality and unequal
development
It is regarded as a cause and consequence of diversity and a mechanism
of spreading cultures
It creates a creative and open society to new ideas than a homogenous
group of people.
Migration can be Internal and International migration
A) Internal Migration in Ethiopia
Population movement in Ethiopia accelerated in the early twenty
century with the rise in urban centers as well as the Italian
occupation.
However, voluntary and individual rural out migration during
the Derg Regime was low for the following reasons.
The 1976/77 ‘land to the tiller’ granted land to the rural landless
farmers, which in turn reduced their motivation for out migration.
The 1975 urban land nationalization that dispossessed landlords’
rights to own more than one house that further led to a chronic
shortage of urban housing which in turn discouraged migration.
The high level of urban unemployment and underemployment
and growing poverty was a disincentive for potential migrants.
The Derge was also taking away whoever is scrounging around
in the city as soldiers to the warfront that kept the youth from
moving to the urban areas.
During the current regime,
The ethnic politics in the country and associated administrative
barriers are said to discourage inter-regional migration.
The government’s policy that demands continued residence in one’s
rural kebele as a condition for claiming access to land also discourages
the movement of rural population out of agriculture.
Another restriction to distant migration out of rural areas is the high
cost of migration relative to expected employment opportunity and
return.
However, landlessness of emerging rural youth; drought and rainfall
unreliability in the highlands; and land degradation and the resultant
diminished carrying capacity of the land could be important push
factors in the out migration of people out of their rural domicile.
Internal migration in Ethiopia is, therefore, among the highest in Africa.
According to the 2007 Census result, the country has a relatively high
level of internal migration where out of the total population of the
country, 16.6 percent is labeled as migrant population.
 B) International migration
International migration in Ethiopia accelerated after the 1974
revolution where many refugees were attempting to escape
political conflict, persecution and famine.
Factors that generated massive emigration from Ethiopia were:
attempt of political centralization and oppression;
the independence struggle of Eritrea from 1961-1991 that led to
violent clashes in the North; and
 the period of Red Terror between 1976-79
Today, Ethiopia could be considered as one of the countries that
has a large number of emigrants overseas.
Ethiopia’s diaspora, estimated to be about four million, is also
considered one of the largest of all African countries.
Large numbers of Ethiopian migrants are found in the Middle
East, USA, Canada, Europe and African countries such as Sudan,
Kenya, South Africa and Botswana.
The causes of cross-border migration include:
Lack of employment and livelihood opportunities, and
negative attitudes attached with low paying and informal job
and poor work ethics amongst the youth.
Rural underemployment and lack of resources
Unfavorable political context and insecurity, civil war and
political turmoil,
Ethiopia’s location in the fragile region of the Horn of Africa
and its long boundary that extends over 5,328 km which
makes border management difficult.
Existence of large number of local brokers with networks
extending to countries of destination;
Misinformation and false promises by brokers/traffickers;
success stories of pioneering migrants; family and peer
pressure
 Age and Sex Structure of Ethiopian Population
A) Age Structure
Age Structure is the distribution of population by age groups.
The most used age groups are:
 Five-year age groups (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, .., 60-64, 65 and above)
 Broad age groups (0-14, 15-64, 65 and above).
Age groups 0-14, 15-64 and 65 and above are known as young
age, working age and old age, respectively.
Our young age population is very large, about half of the
population, while the old age population is very small.
The high percentage for the young age group is the result of
high birth rate and natural increase, while the small percentage
of the old age group is the reflection of high mortality rate, which
results in low life expectancy.
It is generally accepted that people in the young and old ages are
dependent on the working age population.
 B) Sex Structure
Sex structure refers to the ratio of male population to female
population at different age groups. It is usually expressed as:

According to the 1984 census result, sex ratio for the population of
Ethiopia was 99.4. This means that there were about 99 males for every
100 females.
 The 1994 census result shows that it was 101.3I
n 2015, male to female ratio for Ethiopia was 99.96 males per 100
females.
Sex ratios are generally lower for urban areas, and higher for rural
areas primarily due to larger female in-migration to urban areas.
Sex composition of the population also shows some variation by
region. In Afar, Somali and Gambella, the number of males exceeds that
of females, while in Addis Ababa the number of females is considerably
higher than the number of males.
 Population Distribution in Ethiopia
Population distribution refers to the arrangement of people
over space that is provided for them to settle and make a living
through exploiting resources.
The distribution of population in Ethiopia is very uneven as
a result of physical and human factors operating together.
The physical factors that affect population distribution
include climate, soil, vegetation, drainage and slope.
The human factors include the historical pattern of
population movement, the type of economic activity,
urbanization, industrialized and the demographic variables.
 Measures of Population Distribution
Population Density refers to the number of people per unit area.
There are three ways of expressing population density. These are:
A. Crude Density
B. Physiological Density
C. Agricultural Density

A. Crude Density
Crude density is found by dividing total population to total area.
This kind of density is called crude because it does not show variations
in population distribution within a given area.
In 1990 crude density for Ethiopia was 40.74 people/km2 and this has
increased to 52 people /km2 in 1998; and it amounted to more than 100
currently.
There is considerable variations in population density among the
administrative regions of the country. (See the Table below).
Table : Population Density of Ethiopia for 2015 by Administrative Regions

Region Population Area(km2) Density(p/km2)

Tigray 5,247,005 84,722 61.9
Afar 1,723,000 72,053 23.9
Amhara 20,401,000 154,709 131.9
Oromia 33,692,000 284,538 118.4
Somali 5,453,000 279,252 19.5
BenishangulGumuz 1,005,000 50,699 19.8
SNNPR 18,276,000 105,476 173.3
Gambella 409,000 29,783 13.7
Harari 232,000 334 716
Addis Ababa 3,273,000 527 62.1
Dire Dawa City 440,000 1,559 282
Total 90,078,000 1,063,652 84.7
 B) Physiological Density
Physiological density is a ratio between total population and
arable part of a country.
Ethiopia's physiological density (for 1998) is 61.8 people/km2.
Arable part of Ethiopia used as a denominator is 969,680 km2.
Compared to Physiological densities of countries like Japan
(1,732 people/km2), Egypt (1,575 people/km2) and Netherlands
(1,220 people/km2), Ethiopia's physiological density is very low.

C) Agricultural Density
Agricultural Density takes only agricultural population as a
numerator and cultivated land as a denominator.
It is also called rural density since in developing countries there is
no a significant difference between rural and agricultural population.
This density measure is more meaningful than both crude and
physiological density measures as it gives a better indication of the
pressure of population on land resources.
Rural population per square kilometer of cropland is the highest for
Somali Afar and Gambella. The large ratio is due to the smaller
proportion of land that is appropriate for agriculture relative to the large
landmass and small population.
The smallest agricultural density lies in Benishangul (3.8), Amahra (5),
Oromia (5.6) and Tigray (5.9).
The two factors that explain variations in agricultural density are the
proportion of cultivated land and urban population of the regions.
 Settlement Types and Patterns
Different settlement types develop mainly in response to some physical
and human factors.
Settlements are divided into two, namely, rural and urban on the bases
of the dominant economic activity, population densities and availability of
socioeconomic and infrastructural facilities.
A) Rural Settlement
The vast majority of the Ethiopian population still lives in rural
settlements consisting of hamlets and villages.
Rural settlements can be temporary or permanent depending on
whether there is frequent change in the site of the settlements.
i) Temporary / Mobile Settlements
The lowlands in most parts of the Rift Valley and peripheral areas, are
characterized by pastoral herding and mobile settlements.
The settlements are mobile because pastoralists have always been
searching for new sites for water and pasture for their livestock.
The major problem of mobile settlements is that of providing social
services like clean water, schools, hospitals, electricity etc to the people.
 ii) Permanent Settlements
Settlements are considered as permanent if there are no frequent
changes in their locations.
Most Ethiopian rural highland settlements where crop cultivation
is practiced are permanent.
Permanent settlements are of two types.
One of them is scattered (also called diffused or dispersed),
the other one is known as grouped/ clustered or nucleated.
 In areas of dispersed settlements homesteads are separated by
relatively long distances which could be associated with individual
land tenure and desire of people to live near to their farm holdings.
Grouped settlements, on the other hand, are characterized by
concentration of large number of homesteads and households at
one place as for example for reasons of defense, to provide
threshold population to support basic social services as was the
case of villagization program during the Dergue.
 B) Urban Settlements in Ethiopia
Urbanization refers to the increase in the percentage of the population
living in urban centers.
Urbanization is crucial to sustain the pace of economic development
and improve the quality of life for both urban and rural populations.
The major criteria used to classify settlements as urban in Ethiopia
are:
i) Minimum of 2,000 people;
ii) Two-thirds of the population engaged in non-agricultural activities;
iii) Chartered municipality;
iv) The presence of social services.
The number of settlements meeting these criteria in 1984 was about
322. These settlements had 10.23 percent of the total population of the
country and this is one of the least urban population sizes in the world.
The number of settlements with greater than 2,000 people in 1994 had
increased to 539. These have 12.8 percent of the country's population.
 In 2007, the number further rose to 927. Today, the urban population is
about 20 percent of the country’s population.
 Growth Rate of Urban Centers
The annual average national growth rate of urban population is
about 5.0 percent. But this being an average, rate of growth of
urban population varies from town to town and from time to time.
Ethiopia’s towns are characterized by wide range of growth
rates that could be classified into one of the following three broad
categories:

1) Declining Towns: towns whose populations are declining in

absolute numbers because net out migration is greater than natural
increase.
This could be due to lack of employment opportunities and
worsening living conditions.
Some of the towns that have at least once experienced a decline
include, Axum, Goba and Maichew.
2) Slow Growing Towns: is composed of towns that grow at
the rate which is less than the rate of natural increase.
Towns such as Holeta, Harar and Gore have been indicated
to grow slowly in the recent past.

3) Fast Growing Towns: All towns with growth rates of

greater than the natural rate of increase.
These towns pull large numbers of people from the declining
or slowly growing towns and rural areas due to the
opportunities they offer associated with expansion in
industries, social services or a change in their administrative
status as zonal or regional capitals.