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5 views

Week 4 Probability intro-teaching slide

Uploaded by

Kwasi Appiah
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Week 4

Into to Probability
What is probability?
Probability is a way to quantify uncertainty in the future due to
randomness, indeterminacy, or chance.

There are three ways to quantify uncertain outcomes:


• theoretical probability
• empirical probability
• subjective probability
Why do entrepreneurs need to
understand probability?

“A startup is a human institution designed to deliver a new


product or service under conditions of extreme uncertainty.”

Eric Ries, author of The Lean Startup


Theoretical Probability Formula for
Uncertain Events

You roll a 6-sided die. Find the probability of rolling


1. the number 3
2. the number 7
3. a number greater than 4
4. an odd number.

Theoretical probability involves counting. Up next: counting review….


Warm up
• Find the sample space for rolling two dice.
• Find the sample space for tossing two coins.
• Find the sample space for drawing one card from an ordinary deck of cards.
• Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three
children. Use B for boy and G for girl.
• Find the probability of getting a black 10 when drawing a card from a deck.
• If a family has three children, find the probability that two of the three
children are girls.
• What is the probability of rolling a sum of 7 when two dice are rolled once?
• What is the probability of getting exactly one head when two coins are
tossed once?
Sample Space for deck of cards
The Fundamental Counting Rule
In a sequence of events in which the first one has possibilities and the
second event has and the third has , and so forth, the total number of
possibilities of the sequence will be
Counting Combinations
A combination counts a set of objects without regard to order
1. You have 4 friends, Ama, Belinda, Cody, and David. How many ways
are there to choose two friends to join you on an excursion?
2. If you pick names from a hat, what is the probability that the two
friends chosen are the same gender?

1. systematic list: AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD


therefore there are 6 ways to choose 2 friends

2. AB and CD are outcomes with the same gender


Counting Permutations
A permutation counts a set of ordered objects
1. A student club has four Officers: Ama, Belinda, Cody, and David. How many
ways are there to choose two of them for the positions of Secretary and
Treasurer for the club?
2. If you pick names from a hat, what is the probability that the Secretary and
Treasurer are not the same gender?

1. Systematic list with first person selected Secretary and second person Treasurer:
AB, AC, AD, BA, BC, BD, CA, CB, CD, DA, DB, DC

2. Outcomes that are the same gender are AB, BA, CD, DC, so 12 – 4 = 8 outcomes are
not the same gender.
Formulas for Permutations and
Combinations
The number of permutations of items taken at a time:

EX: the number of ways to randomly select a sequence of two items from a group of 4
items is
ways
The number of combinations of items taken at a time:

EX: The number of ways to randomly select a collection of two items from a group of 4
items is
ways
Note: the in the denominator of the combinations formula simply divides out the number
of sequences that are repeats when order does not matter.
Practice Questions
A standard deck of playing cards has 52 cards
divided equally into four suits: hearts , diamonds
, clubs , and spades . Within each suit there are
13 cards: one ace, the numbers from 2 to 10, a jack,
queen and king.

A. Suppose you are dealt a hand of 3 cards from a standard deck. In how many
ways can this be done?
B. How many of the sets will contain at least 1 ace among the 3 cards?
C. What is the probability that there is at least 1 ace among the 3 cards you are
dealt?
Sample Space for deck of cards
Practice Questions 2
A. How many ways can you arrange 5 books on a shelf?
B. You have 5 books and want to arrange 3 of them on the shelf. In
how many ways can this be done?
C. You have 5 books and want to give three to a friend. In how many
ways can this be done?
D. If each of the books is written by a different author and you
randomly select an arrangement, what is the probability that the
books will be in alphabetical order?
Practice Problems 3
1. You are planning to buy a new car. The available options are:
a) Vinyl, upholstery or leather seats.
b) Brown, silver, black, green or red paint
c) Tropicalized suspension or regular suspension
In how many different ways can you order your new car?

2. Your sock drawer contains only blue and white socks. There are currently 2
pairs of white socks and 3 pairs of blue socks. You wake up before dawn and
there is no electricity. You pull out two socks at random.
a) What is the probability they are both blue?
b) What is the probability they are both the same colour?
c) How many socks do you need to choose to guarantee you have a blue pair?

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