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Lecture 2

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13 views47 pages

Lecture 2

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Business Statistics

Chapter 6
Normal Probability Distributions

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc.


1 of 105
All rights reserved.
Section 5.1

Introduction to Normal Distributions

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Properties of a Normal Distribution

Continuous random variable


• Has an infinite number of possible values that can be
represented by an interval on the number line.
Hours spent studying in a day The time spent
studying can be any
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 number between 0
and 24.

Continuous probability distribution


• The probability distribution of a continuous random
variable.

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Properties of Normal Distributions

Normal distribution
• A continuous probability distribution for a random
variable, x.
• The most important continuous probability
distribution in statistics.
• The graph of a normal distribution is called the
normal curve.

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Properties of Normal Distributions
1. The mean, median, and mode are equal.
2. The normal curve is bell-shaped and is symmetric
about the mean.
3. The total area under the normal curve is equal to 1.
4. The normal curve approaches, but never touches, the
x-axis as it extends farther and farther away from the
mean.
Total area = 1

x
μ
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Properties of Normal Distributions
5. Between μ – σ and μ + σ (in the center of the curve),
the graph curves downward. The graph curves
upward to the left of μ – σ and to the right of μ + σ.
The points at which the curve changes from curving
upward to curving downward are called the
inflection points.

μ – 3σ μ – 2σ μ–σ μ μ+σ μ + 2σ μ + 3σ
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Data distribution

For nearly normally distributed data,


● about 68% falls within 1 SD of the mean,
● about 95% falls within 2 SD of the mean,
● about 99.7% falls within 3 SD of the mean.

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Means and Standard Deviations
• A normal distribution can have any mean and any
positive standard deviation.
• The mean gives the location of the line of symmetry.
• The standard deviation describes the spread of the
data.

μ = 3.5 μ = 3.5 μ = 1.5


σ = 1.5 σ = 0.7 σ = 0.7
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 8 of 105
Example: Understanding Mean and
Standard Deviation
1. Which normal curve has the greater mean?

Solution:
Curve A has the greater mean (The line of
symmetry of curve A occurs at x = 15. The line of
symmetry of curve B occurs at x = 12.)
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 9 of 105
Example: Understanding Mean and
Standard Deviation
2. Which curve has the greater standard deviation?

Solution:
Curve B has the greater standard deviation (Curve
B is more spread out than curve A.)

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 10 of 105


Example: Interpreting Graphs
The scaled test scores for the New York State Grade 8
Mathematics Test are normally distributed. The normal
curve shown below represents this distribution. What is
the mean test score? Estimate the standard deviation.
Solution:
Because the inflection points are
Because a normal curve is one standard deviation from the
symmetric about the mean, mean, you can estimate that σ ≈
you can estimate that μ ≈ 675. 35.

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 11 of 105


The Standard Normal Distribution
Standard normal distribution
• A standard normal distribution with a mean of 0 and
a standard deviation of 1.

Area = 1

z
–3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3
• Any x-value can be transformed into a z-score by
using the formula
Value  Mean x 
z 
Standard deviation 
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The Standard Normal Distribution
• If each data value of a normally distributed random
variable x is transformed into a z-score, the result will
be the standard normal distribution.

Normal Distribution Standard Normal


Distribution
x 
σ z
 σ

 x  z

• Use the Standard Normal Table to find the


cumulative area under the standard normal curve.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 13 of 105
Properties of the Standard Normal
Distribution

1. The cumulative area is close to 0 for z-scores close


to z = –3.49.
2. The cumulative area increases as the z-scores
increase.

Area is
close to 0 z
–3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3
z = –3.49
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 14 of 105
Properties of the Standard Normal
Distribution

3. The cumulative area for z = 0 is 0.5000.


4. The cumulative area is close to 1 for z-scores close
to z = 3.49.

Area
z
is close to 1
–3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3
z=0 z = 3.49
Area is 0.5000
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 15 of 105
Example: Using The Standard Normal Table
Find the cumulative area that corresponds to a z-score of
1.15.

Solution:
Find 1.1 in the left hand column.
Move across the row to the column under 0.05
The area to the left of z = 1.15 is 0.8749.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 16 of 105
Example: Using The Standard Normal Table
Find the cumulative area that corresponds to a z-score of –
0.24.

Solution:
Find –0.2 in the left hand column.
Move across the row to the column under 0.04
The area to the left of z = –0.24 is 0.4052.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 17 of 105
Finding Areas Under the Standard
Normal Curve
1. Sketch the standard normal curve and shade the
appropriate area under the curve.
2. Find the area by following the directions for each
case shown.
a. To find the area to the left of z, find the area that
corresponds to z in the Standard Normal Table.
2. The area to the left
of z = 1.23 is 0.8907

1. Use the table to find


the area for the z-score
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 18 of 105
Finding Areas Under the Standard
Normal Curve
b. To find the area to the right of z, use the Standard
Normal Table to find the area that corresponds to
z. Then subtract the area from 1.

2. The area to the 3. Subtract to find the area


left of z = 1.23 to the right of z = 1.23:
is 0.8907. 1 – 0.8907 =
0.1093.

1. Use the table to find the


area for the z-score.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 19 of 105
Finding Areas Under the Standard
Normal Curve
c. To find the area between two z-scores, find the
area corresponding to each z-score in the
Standard Normal Table. Then subtract the
smaller area from the larger area.
2. The area to the 4. Subtract to find the area of
left of z = 1.23 the region between the two
is 0.8907. z-scores:
3. The area to the 0.8907 – 0.2266 = 0.6641.
left of z = –0.75
is 0.2266.

1. Use the table to find the


area for the z-scores.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 20 of 105
Example: Finding Area Under the
Standard Normal Curve
Find the area under the standard normal curve to the left
of z = –0.99.
Solution:

0.1611
z
–0.99 0

From the Standard Normal Table, the area is


equal to 0.1611.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 21 of 105
Example: Finding Area Under the
Standard Normal Curve
Find the area under the standard normal curve to the
right of z = 1.06.
Solution:

0.8554 1 – 0.8554 = 0.1446

z
0 1.06

From the Standard Normal Table, the area is equal to


0.1446.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 22 of 105
Example: Finding Area Under the
Standard Normal Curve
Find the area under the standard normal curve between
z = –1.5 and z = 1.25.
Solution:
0.8944 – 0.0668 = 0.8276

0.8944
0.0668
z
–1.50 0 1.25

From the Standard Normal Table, the area is equal to


0.8276.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 23 of 105
Section 5.2

Normal Distributions: Finding


Probabilities

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Probability and Normal Distributions

• If a random variable x is normally distributed, you


can find the probability that x will fall in a given
interval by calculating the area under the normal
curve for that interval.

P(x < 600) = Area μ = 500


σ = 100

x
μ = 500 600

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Probability and Normal Distributions

Normal Distribution Standard Normal Distribution


μ = 500 σ = 100 μ=0 σ=1
x   600  500
z  1
P(x < 600)  100 P(z < 1)

x z
μ =500 600 μ=0 1

Same Area
P(x < 600) = P(z < 1)

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Example: Finding Probabilities for
Normal Distributions
A survey indicates that people use their cellular phones
an average of 1.5 years before buying a new one. The
standard deviation is 0.25 year. A cellular phone user is
selected at random. Find the probability that the user
will use their current phone for less than 1 year before
buying a new one. Assume that the variable x is
normally distributed. (Source: Fonebak)

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 27 of 105


Solution: Finding Probabilities for
Normal Distributions

Normal Distribution Standard Normal Distribution


μ = 1.5 σ = 0.25 μ=0 σ=1
x  1  1.5 P(z < –2)
z   2
P(x < 1)  0.25

0.0228
x z
1 1.5 –2 0

P(x < 1) = 0.0228

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Example: Finding Probabilities for
Normal Distributions
A survey indicates that for each trip to the supermarket,
a shopper spends an average of 45 minutes with a
standard deviation of 12 minutes in the store. The length
of time spent in the store is normally distributed and is
represented by the variable x. A shopper enters the store.
Find the probability that the shopper will be in the store
for between 24 and 54 minutes.

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 29 of 105


Solution: Finding Probabilities for
Normal Distributions

Normal Distribution Standard Normal Distribution


μ = 45 σ = 12 μ=0 σ=1
x 24  45
z1    1.75
 12 P(–1.75 < z < 0.75)
x   54  45
P(24 < x < 54) z2   0.75
 12
0.7734
0.0401
x z
24 45 54 –1.75 0 0.75

P(24 < x < 54) = P(–1.75 < z < 0.75)


= 0.7734 – 0.0401 = 0.7333
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 30 of 105
Example: Finding Probabilities for
Normal Distributions
If 200 shoppers enter the store, how many shoppers
would you expect to be in the store between 24 and 54
minutes?

Solution:
Recall P(24 < x < 54) = 0.7333

200(0.7333) =146.66 (or about 147) shoppers

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 31 of 105


Example: Finding Probabilities for
Normal Distributions
Find the probability that the shopper will be in the store
more than 39 minutes. (Recall μ = 45 minutes and
σ = 12 minutes)

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 32 of 105


Solution: Finding Probabilities for
Normal Distributions

Normal Distribution Standard Normal Distribution


μ = 45 σ = 12 μ=0 σ=1
x  39  45 P(z > –0.50)
z   0.50
 12
P(x > 39)

0.3085
x z
39 45 –0.50 0

P(x > 39) = P(z > –0.50) = 1– 0.3085 = 0.6915


© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 33 of 105
Example: Finding Probabilities for
Normal Distributions
If 200 shoppers enter the store, how many shoppers
would you expect to be in the store more than 39
minutes?

Solution:
Recall P(x > 39) = 0.6915

200(0.6915) =138.3 (or about 138) shoppers

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 34 of 105


Section 5.3

Normal Distributions: Finding


Values

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 35 of 105


Finding values Given a Probability
• In section 5.2 we were given a normally distributed
random variable x and we were asked to find a
probability.
• In this section, we will be given a probability and we
will be asked to find the value of the random variable
x. 5.2

x z probability

5.3
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 36 of 105
Example: Finding a z-Score Given an
Area
Find the z-score that corresponds to a cumulative area of
0.3632.

Solution:

0.3632

z
z 0

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 37 of 105


Solution: Finding a z-Score Given an
Area
• Locate 0.3632 in the body of the Standard Normal Table.

The z-score
is –0.35.

• The values at the beginning of the corresponding row


and at the top of the column give the z-score.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 38 of 105
Example: Finding a z-Score Given an
Area
Find the z-score that has 10.75% of the distribution’s area to
its right.

Solution:
1 – 0.1075 0.1075
= 0.8925

z
0 z
Because the area to the right is 0.1075, the
cumulative area is 0.8925.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 39 of 105
Solution: Finding a z-Score Given an
Area
• Locate 0.8925 in the body of the Standard Normal Table.

The z-score
is 1.24.

• The values at the beginning of the corresponding row


and at the top of the column give the z-score.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 40 of 105
Example: Finding a z-Score Given a
Percentile
Find the z-score that corresponds to P5.
Solution:
The z-score that corresponds to P5 is the same z-score that
corresponds to an area of 0.05.
0.05
z
z 0
The areas closest to 0.05 in the table are 0.0495 (z = –1.65)
and 0.0505 (z = –1.64). Because 0.05 is halfway between the
two areas in the table, use the z-score that is halfway
between –1.64 and –1.65. The z-score is –1.645.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 41 of 105
Transforming a z-Score to an x-Score

To transform a standard z-score to a data value x in a


given population, use the formula
x = μ + zσ

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 42 of 105


Example: Finding an x-Value
A veterinarian records the weights of cats treated at a
clinic. The weights are normally distributed, with a mean
of 9 pounds and a standard deviation of 2 pounds. Find
the weights x corresponding to z-scores of 1.96, –0.44,
and 0.
Solution: Use the formula x = μ + zσ
•z = 1.96: x = 9 + 1.96(2) = 12.92 pounds
•z = –0.44: x = 9 + (–0.44)(2) = 8.12 pounds
•z = 0: x = 9 + (0)(2) = 9 pounds
Notice 12.92 pounds is above the mean, 8.12 pounds is
below the mean, and 9 pounds is equal to the mean.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 43 of 105
Example: Finding a Specific Data Value
Scores for the California Peace Officer Standards and
Training test are normally distributed, with a mean of 50
and a standard deviation of 10. An agency will only hire
applicants with scores in the top 10%. What is the lowest
score you can earn and still be eligible to be hired by the
agency?
Solution:
An exam score in the top
10% is any score above the
90th percentile. Find the z-
score that corresponds to a
cumulative area of 0.9.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 44 of 105
Solution: Finding a Specific Data Value
From the Standard Normal Table, the area closest to 0.9
is 0.8997. So the z-score that corresponds to an area of
0.9 is z = 1.28.

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 45 of 105


Solution: Finding a Specific Data Value
Using the equation x = μ + zσ
x = 50 + 1.28(10) = 62.8

The lowest score you can earn and still be eligible


to be hired by the agency is about 63.
© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 46 of 105
Any Questions?

Reading materials

Introductory Business Statistics 2e. Author: Alexander


Chapter 6. The Normal Distribution. Pages 277-302

© 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 47 of 105

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