1 Lectures
1 Lectures
3 Hours Course
Prepared by
Session 2022/2023
General Course Outline:
- Calculation of the population count in the future: The objective is to estimate the
number of people in the town or city in other to identify the quantity of water that
would be sufficient and sustainable to them.
- In an environmental engineering (water supply aspect in this case), this phenomena is
vital, because if we don’t know the total number of people that are leaving in certain
community, we cannot estimate the quantity of water that could be enough for the
population.
- Therefore, we are going to apply the technology behind population forecasting to
assist us resolve such issues easily.
Where = population at the end of n year; P = population at any time; i = annual rate of increase of
population
As the rate of increase of population is not a constant value, the result obtained are approximated.
When we are calculating annual rate at increase, whatever the value we are getting or whatever
prediction we are getting, the population is obtained as an approximate value.
Where, is population at the end of the years, P is the present population, i is the per year or per decade
increase of population.
This method is very important for a stabilized city, i.e, if the population growth is in stable condition.
3) Geometrical progression method:
In this case, a constant % growth is assumed before equal period of time which is given in a formular:
This methods should be very carefully used as it give very high results when applied to rapidly
advancing cities, which usually having expansions of short duration, that would yield to high rate of
result.
4) Incremental increase method: In this case, the average increase in the population is found as per
arithmetical progression method, we would be taking an average and increases added to the
arithmetical progression methods to get the net incremental increase once for every future decade.
The average of increase in population is found out as the arithmetical progression method
and to that it is added to the average of the net incremental increase in one year, once for
every future decade. So evidently, this method involves the advantage of both the
prediction method and the value of population obtained, therefore it is more correct
method.
The incremental increase method is more correct because we are adding the future decades population
to every year.
Generally, We will be taking the arithmetical progression methods and adding the average of the net
incremental increase once for every future decades.
Let’s discuss on an
environmental impact
assessment.
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