E3BAIS Chapter 1
E3BAIS Chapter 1
E3BAIS Chapter 1
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
It is concerned with the analysis of random
phenomena. The outcome of a random event cannot be
determined before it occurs, but it may be any one of
several possible outcomes. The actual outcome is
considered to be determined by chance.
It is the measure of the likelihood that an event
will occur in a Random Experiment(i.e. Whenever we’re
unsure about the outcome of an event, we can talk
about the probabilities of certain outcomes—how
likely they are).
Experiment: is a trial/process that generates two or
more possible outcomes.
Sample space/outcome space: The set ALL possible
outcomes of an experiment.
Event: is any subset of sample space.
Example 1:
Experiment: Toss/Flip a coin once
Sample space: Head, Tail
Event:
Example 2:
Experiment: Toss a coin twice
Sample space: (Head,Head),Head, Tail),(Tail, Head),
(Tail,Tail).
Event:
Experiment: Measuring the time until the bus comes
Sample space: (0, )
Event:
Classical definition of probability:
Let A be an event and S a sample space, then
P(A)=n(A)/n(S)
Example 1: What is the probability of getting atmost 2
head in tossing a coin twice? Three times?
Example 2: What is the probability that both coins turn
up the same in rolling a die twice? What is the
probability of getting a sum of 12 in this
experiment?
Example 3: What is the probability of drawing an Ace in
a deck of 52 playing cards, when selection is with
replacement? Without replacement?
Two events are independent if and only if the
occurrence of the first event does not have an effect
on the probability of occurrence of the second
event(Events A and B are independent if: knowing
whether A occurred does not change the probability of
B). If two events are not independent, then they are
said to be dependent events.
Example: Let A = the event of drawing number 10 in a
deck of 52 playing cards,
B = the event of drawing number 5
If A and B are chosen without replacement, are they
independent?
If A and B are chosen with replacement, are they
independent?
NB: If A and B are independent, then P(AnB)=P(A)P(B)
Exercise: Experiment is rolling a die twice; A = first
die lands 1; B = second die shows larger number than
first die; C = both dice show same number. Are A and
Let A and B be two events:
The conditional probability of an event A is the
probability that the event will occur given the
knowledge that an event B has already occurred. This
probability is written P(A|B), notation for
the probability of A given B.
P(A|B)= P(AnB)/P(B)
NB: If A and B are independent, then P(A|B)= P(A)
Illustrative example:The weatherman might state that
your area has a probability of rain of 40%. However,
this fact is conditional on many things, such as the
probability of…
…a cold front coming to your area.
p ( xi ) = 1
ii) i 1
Example 1
Example 2
x P4(x)
0 0.6561
1 0.2916
2 0.0486
3 0.0036
4 0.0001
Discrete probability distribution
x x1 x2 x3 - - - xn
P(x P(x1) p(x2) p(x3)- - -- p(xn )
)
.
Example
Toss a coin four times and find the probability
distribution of obtaining heads.
Soln
Let X be number of heads obtained in tossing a coin 4
times; x = 0 1, 2, 3, 4
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 1/16 4/16 6/16 4/16 1/16
x x1 x2 x3 - - - xn
P(x) P(x1) p(x2) p(x3) - - - p(xn)
variable X, denoted
n
by E(X) or µ , is defined as
x
µx = x
i 1
i p ( xi )
E(X) =
And the variance of x, denoted by
n
x or var(X), is
2
given by
2x = var(X) = ( xi x ) p ( xi )
2
i 1
or,
n
P ( xi ) xi x
2 2 2
x
i 1
Then the standard deviation of x, denoted by Sx or
s.d, is simply the positive square root of the
variance
n
i.e x =
s.d(X)=
(x
i 1
i x
2
) p ( xi )
Examples
1.Toss a coin 3 times and find the expected number
of tails obtained and its standard deviation
Solution
Let X = number of tails obtained
X = x, x = 0, 1, 2, 3.
x 0 1 2 3
=12/8
= 3/2
= 1.5 tails
Therefore, 1 tail or 2 tails are equally expected
in tossing a con 3 times
n
2
x = var(x) = i x p( xi )
( x
i 1
) 2
+(3.3/2)2X1/8
= 3/4
The standard deviation or the fluctuation or
uncertainity from the expected value 1.5 tails is
σx = s.d =Var (x )
= 3/ 4
=
3/2 tails
2. A study shows that the following is data of the number of
crises that could occur during the day off for the manager of
a business
0 0.37
1 0.31
2 0.18
3 0.09
4 0.04
5 0.01
5
= 1.19
x = s.d = i x p( xi ) = 1.41 crises
2
( x )
i 0
where, p = p(success),
q = p(failure),
n = number of trials
n!
( nx ) =
nCx =
x!( n x )!
Note
Exercise:
what is the probability that
i) Not less than 2 are non – defective. Ans: 0.3483
ii) At least 1 is non-defective.
Ans: 0.9919
Solution
= 1 – p(x<1) = 1 – p(x = 0)
= 1- 5C0(0.1)0(0.9)5-0
= 1 – (0.9)5
= 1 – 0.59049
= 0.4951
c) Let x = number of babies survive
X = x, x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
n=5
p = p(success ) = P(survive) = 0.9
q = p(failure) = p(die) = 1 – p = 0.1
P(X= x) = 5Cx(0.9)x(0.1)5-x, x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
P(x=0) = 5C0(0.9)0(0.1)5-0 = (0.1)5 = 0.00001
d)p(x≤ 4) = 1- p(x> 4) = 1 – p(x = 5) = 1-
5C4(0.9)4(0.1)5-4
= 1 – 0.32805
= 0.67195
Exercises
µx = E(x) = np
x = s.d = npq
Poisson distribution
•Poisson distribution: is an example of discrete
probability distribution.
•It models the number of events that occur within a
fixed interval of time or space.
A Poisson random variable represents the number
of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or
space.
Examples of Poisson random variable:
1. Let X be number of accidents in one year
X= x, x= 0, 1, 2, ---
x accidents/year
Event- accident
Unit – year
2. Let X is be number of errors per page
X= x, x= 0, 1, 2, ---
x errors/page
Event – error
Unit – page
x!
Note:
X=x, x = 0, 1, 2, ---
= 2.3 ships/hr
X is a Poisson random variable i.e X P()
e T (T ) x , x = 0, 1, 2, ----
P (X = x) =
x!
a) = 2.3
T=2 T = 2.3x2 = 4.6
T 4 .6 3
P(X = 3) = e (T ) x
e ( 4.6)
=
x! 6
3
0.0101(4.6)
=
6
= 0.164
b) = 2.3
T=1 T = 2.3
2.3 2 .3
P(X≤ 1) = p(X = 0,1) e
= (2.3) 0 + e ( 2.3) 1
1 1
= 3.3e-2.3
= 3.3X0.1003
= 0.33099
-
c) = 2.3
T = 0.5 T = 2.3x0.5 = 1.15
= 0.31845
Exercise
µx = E(x) =
2x = var(x) =
x = s.d =
Poisson approximation to binomial (Assignment)
Continuous probability distributions
That is the total area under the curve f(x) and above
x-axis is 1.
NB:
Let f(x) be a probability density function of a
continuous random variable X defined over an
interval [a, b]. Then
=
v(x)
Normal distribution
•It is an example of a continuous probability distribution.
•Normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution that is symmetrical around
its mean, most of the observations cluster around the central peak, and the probabilities
for values further away from the mean taper off equally in both directions.
•The normal distribution, also known as the Gaussian distribution, has numerous
practical applications in business administration and information systems. Here are
some examples:
X N( µ, 2 )
y
f(x),
x
µ
The normal curve has the following
properties.
1 2
1 z
f (z) = e 2
,-<x<
2
NB:
1, Any continuous random variable X N(, 2) can
be standardized using the transformation
x
Z=
i. e, if X N(, 2), then Z N(0, 1)
P (0< Z < a)
f (z)
0 a
the standard normal table
Examples
- P(0<Z<2.34) = 0.4904
-P(- 1.63< Z < 0)= p(0<Z<1.63)= 0.4484 –
since
the curve is symmetric
-P(Z<1.05) = 0.5 + p(0<Z<1.05) = 0.5 +
0.3531
= 0.8532
-P(Z< -2.35) = 0.5 – p(0<Z<2.35) =0.5 – 0.4906
= 0.0094
-P(-1.43<Z<2.11)= p(0<Z<1.43)
+p(0<Z<2.11)
= 0.4236 +0.4826= 0.9062
-P(-2.34<Z<-1.03) = p(0<Z<2.34) –
p(0<Z<1.03)
= 0.4904 -0.3485= 0.1419
Example
The age of workers of an industry is normally
distributed with mean 35 years and standard deviation
of 5 years.
i)What is the probability that a randomly selected
worker is
a) Less than 40 years of age
b) Between 28 and 37 years of age
c) at least 42 years of age
ii) Find the age
a)Below which 80% of workers have it
b) Above which 60% of workers have it
Solution
Let X = the age of the selected worker
X = x, 18 ≤ X ≤ 60 – continuous random variable.
But X N(, 2) – given
0.3
0.5 0.2
= 35 x0
0.5 0.3
0.2
= 0 x 0 35
5
p(0 < Z < x 0 35 ) = 0.3
5
x 0 35 = 0.84
5
xo = 35 +0.84X5 = 39.2
years
b)Let xo = the age above which 60%
of workers have it
0.1
0.4 0.5
xo = 35
0.1 0.5
0.4
x 0 35
( )= 0
-5
x0 35
p(-( )< Z < 0) = 0.1
5
-( x 0 35 ) = 0.25
5
x 0 35
= - 0.25
5
xo = 35 – 0.25X 5 = 33.75 years
1. The salary of workers of an industry is normally distributed
with mean salary of $420 and standard deviation of $55. If any
one worker from the industry is selected randomly,
i) What is the probability that he or she has salary of
a) More than $450 b) Less than $300 c) Between $380 and
$490
ii) What is the salary
a) Below which 5% of workers have it