DISSERTATION

(RESEARCH)
METHODOLOGY
AND DATA
ANALYSIS

HISHAM SHARAWY – DBA PROGRAM CEO

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
RESEARCH PRINCIPALS

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

WHAT’S THESIS?
• “Tithenai” = “to place.”
• This early definition was concerned with topographical and locative origins
with an intentional infinitive that indicated “putting forth” of something in a
pre-defined place. From there onwards, the early Greek word mutated into
‘thesis’ which in Greek meant “to put forth something” like “a proposal”. This
meaning sustained through Latin scholarship and through the Middle Ages
and the Renaissance into modernity. To put forth a proposal became related
to the central theme or statement of a scholarly argument.
• In the post-Renaissance discourse of scientific experimentation, there arose a
tri-partite scheme in which separate ‘nodes’ of knowledge or ‘axioms’
connected to form the ‘hypo-thesis’ or something that was lesser (hypo) than
the ‘thesis’ but was also a projected mind-picture of the same.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 WHAT’S THE RESEARCH?

• Research is defined as careful consideration of study regarding a

particular concern or problem using scientific methods. According to
the American sociologist Earl Robert Babbie, “research is a systematic
inquiry to describe, explain, predict, and control the observed
phenomenon. It involves inductive and deductive methods.”
• Inductive research methods analyze an observed event, while deductive
methods verify the observed event. Inductive approaches are
associated with qualitative research, and deductive methods are more
commonly associated with quantitative analysis.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

WHAT’S THE DISSERTATION?
• The word ‘dissertation’ is derived from the Latin word dissertātiō
which means ‘path’. In some countries, dissertation is also referred
to as ‘thesis’. Oxford Dictionary defines dissertation as ‘a long essay
on a particular subject or topic especially written for university
degree or diploma’. Dissertation writing can vary in scope, length
and nature but the core purpose and objective remains the same,
that to search something.
• It may include a research within (That is why we shall indicate to it
for simplification by “research”)
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
WHY DO WE NEED DISSERTATION?
Dissertation is conducted with a purpose to:
• Identify potential and new customers or markets
• Understand existing customers’ behavior
• Set pragmatic goals
• Develop productive market strategies
• Address business challenges and way to deal
• Put together a business expansion plan
• Identify new business opportunities and gaps
• Exploring some expectations for certain action
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 Characteristics of Dissertation
Research is directed towards the solution of a problem.
Research is based upon observable experience or empirical evidence.
Research demands accurate observation and description.
Research involves getting new data from primary sources or using existing for a new purpose.
Research activities are characterized by carefully designed procedures.
Research requires expertise i.e., skill necessary to carryout investigation, search the related
literature and to understand and analyze the data gathered.
Research is objective and logical – applying every possible test to validate the data collected
and conclusions reached.
Research involves the quest for answers to unsolved problems.
Research requires courage.
Research is characterized by patient and unhurried activity.
Research is carefully recorded and reported.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 CRITERIA OF A GOOD Dissertation

 Purpose clearly defined.

 Research process detailed.
 Research design thoroughly planned.
 High ethical standards applied.
 Limitations frankly revealed.
 Adequate analysis for decision maker’s needs.
 Findings presented unambiguously.
 Conclusions justified.
 Researcher’s experience reflected.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 QUALITIES OF A GOOD RESEARCH

• Systematic
• Logical
• Empirical
• Replicable
• Creative
• Use of multiple methods

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 Planned Research : Meaning

Planned Research is an Endeavour to discover answers to intellectual

and practical problems through the application of scientific method.

“Planned Research is a systematized effort to gain new knowledge”.

-Redman and
Mory.

 Planned Research is the systematic process of collecting and

analyzing information (data) in order to increase our understanding
of the phenomenon about which we are concerned or interested.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF RESEARCH?

• There are three main purposes:

Exploratory Descriptive Explanatory
Research Research Research
Approach used Unstructured Structured Highly structured

Conducted through Asking questions Asking questions By using

hypotheses.

Time Early stages of Later stages of Later stages of

decision making decision making decision making
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
TYPES OF RESEARCH METHODS AND
EXAMPLE
1. Qualitative methods: 2. Quantitative methods:
is a method that collects data using It uses a systematic way of
conversational methods, usually investigating events or data. It
open-ended questions. The responses answers questions to justify
collected are essentially non- relationships with measurable
numerical. This method helps a variables to either explain, predict, or
researcher understand what
control a phenomenon. They are:
participants think and why they think
in a particular way.
• One-to-one Interview • Survey research
• Focus Groups • Descriptive research
• Ethnographic studies • Correlational research
• Text Analysis
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

• Case Study
IT IS ESSENTIAL TO ENSURE THAT YOUR
DATA IS:

• Valid – founded, logical, rigorous, and impartial.

• Accurate – free of errors and including required details.
• Reliable – other people who investigate in the same way can produce
similar results.
• Timely – current and collected within an appropriate time frame.
• Complete – includes all the data you need to support your business
decisions.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

SCOPE / SIGNIFICANCE OF RESEARCH
 Throws light on risks and
 Solves pricing problems
uncertainty
 Identify alternative courses of  Solves allocation problems
action  Solves decision making issues in HR
 Helps in economic use of  Solves various operational and
resources planning problems of business and
 Helps in project identification industry
 Solves investment problems

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 TYPES OF RESEARCH

Exploratory Research:

• undertaken with the aim of clarifying uncertain problems

• general problems usually known but not sufficiently understood
• the purpose is to get more information, not to uncover specific
courses of action (subsequent research)

Determining a specific course of action to follow is not a

purpose of exploratory research!

Example: Child-Care support

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis
Hisham Sharawy
programme for employees 12/09/2024
 TYPES OF RESEARCH

Descriptive Research:
• undertaken with the aim of determining the characteristics of a population
or phenomenon
• Previous knowledge of problem exists
• High degree of precision or accuracy required

Examples:
Who are the main consumers of organic foods?
How many students read the prescribed course literature?
Where do most holiday-makers
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis
Hisham Sharawy
travelling overseas go? 12/09/2024

When do petrol stations tend to raise their prices?

 TYPES OF RESEARCH
Causal Research:

• undertaken with the aim of identifying cause and effect

relationships amongst variables
• are normally preceeded by exploratory and descriptive research
studies
• Often difficult to determine because of the influence of other
variables (concommitant Variation and the presence of other
hidden variables)

Example: Higher
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis
ice-cream consumption causes more
Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

people to drown (indicative of a causal relationship (?))

EXPLANATORY RESEARCH

When we encounter an issue that is already known and have a description of

it, we might begin to wonder why things are the way they are. The desire to
know "why," to explain, is the purpose of explanatory research. It builds on
exploratory and descriptive research and goes on to identify the reasons for
something that occurs. Explanatory research looks for causes and reasons. For
example, a descriptive research may discover that 10 percent of the parents
abuse their children, whereas the explanatory researcher is more interested
in learning why parents abuse their children.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

EXPLANATORY RESEARCH
Goals of Explanatory Research

1. Explain things not just reporting. Why? Elaborate and enrich a theory's explanation.

2. Determine which of several explanations is best.

3. Determine the accuracy of the theory; test a theory's predictions or principle.

4. Advance knowledge about underlying process.

5. Build and elaborate a theory; elaborate and enrich a theory's predictions or principle.

6. Extend a theory or principle to new areas, new issues, and new topics:
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
7. Provide evidence to support or refute an explanation or prediction.

8. Test a theory's predictions or principles

CASE STUDY DESIGN

• Robson (2002:178) defines case study as “a strategy for doing research

which involves an empirical investigation of a particular contemporary
phenomenon within its real life context using multiple sources of evidence”.
• The case study strategy will be of particular interest if we wish to gain a rich
understanding of the context of the research and the processes being
enacted. (Morris and Wood 1991).
• The case study strategy also has considerable ability to generate answers to
the question “Why” as well as the “What” and “How” questions . That is why
the case study strategy most often used in explanatory and exploratory
research
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 FORWARD AND BACKWARD
LINKAGES
Forward Linkage – The earlier stages of a research project
determine the design at a later stage
Example: The goal of the research project will determine the
selection of the sample and the way data is collected

Backward Linkage – The later stages of a research project

determine how its earlier stages are conducted
Example: The company executives require certain specific
information which the researcher anticipates and for which he or
she plans the data collection and analysis steps accordingly
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 FLOWCHARTING THE RESEARCH
PROCESS (1)
Problem Discovery

Selection of Secondary (historical) data

exploratory Pilot Study
research technique Experience Survey
Case Study

Problem Definition
(Statement of research objectives)

Survey (Interview, Questionnaire)

Selection of Experiment (Laboratory, Field)
basic research Secondary Data Study
method Observation
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 FLOWCHARTING THE RESEARCH
PROCESS (2)
Survey (Interview, Questionnaire)
Experiment (Laboratory, Field) Collection of Data (Fieldwork)
Secondary Data Study
Observation
Editing and Coding Data

Sample Design
Data Processing and Analysis

Probability Non-Probability Interpretation of Findings

Sampling Sampling

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy

Report 12/09/2024
 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS IN
BUSINESS RESEARCH

• Ethics & Morals

• Societal norms and values
• Divergent perceptions of what is considered ethical and
unethical
• What is “ethical” in business research?
• Ethical Guidelines and professional associations

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 ETHICAL BEHAVIOR CONSIDERATIONS:

 No deception, be forthright and do not conceal the true purpose of the

research
 Maintain objectivity, courtesy and high professional standards through
scientific process
 No falsification, alteration or misrepresentation of data for political or other
purposes
 Protect the confidentiality of the research subjects and research sponsors
 No faulty conclusions
 No inclusion or use of information or ideas contained in competing research
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

proposals
RESEARCH PROCESS

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 STAGES IN THE RESEARCH
PROCESS
Define
Problem

Planning a Conclusions
Research Design and Report

Planning Processing and

a Sample Analysing the Data

Gathering
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy the Data 12/09/2024
 RESEARCH PROBLEM

What is a research problem?

 The term ‘problem’ means a question or issue to be

examined.

 Research Problem refers to some difficulty /need

which a researcher experiences in the context of either
theoretical or practical situation and wants to obtain a
solution for the same.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 HOW DO WE KNOW WE HAVE A
RESEARCH PROBLEM?

Customer complaints
 Conversation with company employees
 Observation of inappropriate behavior or conditions in the firm
 Deviation from the business plan
 Success of the firm’s competitor’s
 Relevant reading of published material (trends, regulations)
 Company records and reports.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

The first step in the research process – definition
of the problem involves two activities:

Identification / Selection of the Problem

Formulation of the Problem

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 IDENTIFICATION / SELECTION OF THE
RESEARCH PROBLEM

This step involves identification of a few problems and

selection of one out of them, after evaluating the alternatives
against certain selection criteria.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 SOURCES OF PROBLEMS’
IDENTIFICATION
 Reading
 Academic Experience
 Daily Experience
 Exposure to Field Situations
 Consultations
 Brainstorming
 Research
 Intuition

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 CRITERIA OF SELECTION
The selection of one appropriate researchable problem out of the
identified problems requires evaluation of those alternatives
against certain criteria. They are:

 Internal / Personal criteria – Researcher’s Interest, Researcher’s

Competence, Researcher’s own Resource: finance and time.
 External Criteria or Factors – Researchability of the problem,
Importance and Urgency, Novelty of the Problem, Feasibility,
Facilities, Usefulness and Social Relevance, Research Personnel.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 DEFINITION / FORMULATION OF THE
RESEARCH PROBLEM

 Formulation is the process of refining the research ideas into

research questions and objectives.

 Formulation means translating and transforming the selected

research problem/topic/idea into a scientifically researchable
question. It is concerned with specifying exactly what the
research problem is.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

  Problem definition or Problem statement is a clear, precise and
succinct statement of the question or issue that is to be
investigated with the goal of finding an answer or solution.

 There are three ways of stating a problem:

1) Posting question / questions
2) Making declarative statement / statements
3) Stating a paragraph showing a clear explanation

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

PROCESS INVOLVED IN DEFINING THE PROBLEM

 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM IN A GENERAL WAY.

 UNDERSTANDING THE NATURE Of PROBLEM

 SURVEYING THE AVAILABLE LITERATURE

 DEVELOPING IDEAS THROUGH DISCUSSIONS

 REPHRASING THE RESEARCH PROBLEM

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 CRITERIA OF A GOOD RESEARCH PROBLEM

 Clear and Unambiguous

 Empirical
 Verifiable
 Interesting
 Novel and Original
 Availability of Guidance

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 Defining Problem, Results in
Clear Cut Research Objectives..

Symptom Detection

Analysis of
the Situation

Problem Definition

Statement of
Research Objectives
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 ESTABLISHMENT OF RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

 Research Objectives are the specific components of

the research problem, that you’ll be working to
answer or complete, in order to answer the overall
research problem. - Churchill, 2001

 The objectives refers to the questions to be

answered through the study. They indicate what we
are trying to get from the study or the expected
results / outcome of the study.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 ESTABLISHMENT OF RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

 Research Objectives should be clear and achievable,

as they directly assist in answering the research
problem.
 The objectives may be specified in the form of
either statements or questions.
 Generally, they are written as statements, using the
word “to”. (For example, ‘to discover …’, ‘to
determine …’, ‘to establish …’, etc. )

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 REVIEW
OF
LITERATURE
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 REVIEW OF LITERATURE

 Literature Review is the documentation of a comprehensive

review of the published and unpublished work from secondary
sources of data in the areas of specific interest to the researcher.

 The main aim is to find out problems that are already investigated
and those that need further investigation.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 REVIEW OF LITERATURE

 It is an extensive survey of all available past studies relevant

to the field of investigation.

 It gives us knowledge about what others have found out in

the related field of study and how they have done so.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 PURPOSE OF REVIEW
 To gain a background knowledge of the research topic.
 To identify the concepts relating to it, potential relationships

between them and to formulate researchable hypothesis.

 To identify appropriate methodology, research design, methods of

measuring concepts and techniques of analysis.

 To identify data sources used by other researchers.
 To learn how others structured their reports.
 To know the difference between what they did and what will you

attend to do and between both research environments and audiances

 To verify the difference between theirs and yours objectives

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 How to conduct the Literature Survey?

 Identify the relevant sources.

 Extract and Record relevant information.

 Write-up the Literature Review.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 SOURCES OF LITERATURE

 Books and Journals

 Electronic Databases
Abstract Databases
Full-Text Databases
 Govt. and Industry Reports
 Internet
 Research Dissertations / Thesis

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 SOURCE CARDS
The recording of bibliographic information should be made in proper
bibliographic format.

The format for citing a book is: Author’s name, (year), Title of the
book, Place of publication, Publisher’s name.
For Example; Koontz Harold (1980), Management, New Delhi, McGraw-

Hill International.

The format for citing a journal article is: Author’s name, (year), Title of
the article, Journal name, Volume (number), pages.
For Example; Sheth J.N (1973), A Model of Industrial Buying Behaviour,

Journal of Marketing, 37(4), 50-56.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 NOTE CARDS

Detailed
Information extracted from a printed
source is recorded on the note cards.

It
is desirable to note a single fact or idea on each
card, on one side only.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 How to write the review?
There
are several ways of presenting the ideas of others within
the body of the paper.

For
Example; If you are referring the major influencing
factors in the Sheth’s model of Industrial Buying Behaviour, it can
be written as,

1)Sheth
(1973, p-50) has suggested that, there are a number of
influencing factors ……..
2)According to Sheth (1973) model of industrial buying
behaviour, there are a number of influencing factors……..
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 How to write the review?

3)In
some models of industrial buying behaviour, there are a
number of influencing factors (Sheth, 1973).

4)In
some models of industrial buying behaviour, there are a
number of influencing factors1.

Sheth J.N (1973), A Model of Industrial Buying Behaviour, Journal of

1.
Marketing, 37(4), 50-56.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 Points to be kept in mind while
reviewing literature..

 Read relevant literature.

 Refer original works.
 Read with comprehension.
 Read in time.
 Record citation
 Index the literature.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

DISSERTATION AS CASE STUDY

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

WHAT IS CASE STUDY?

• Case studies emphasize detailed contextual analysis of a limited

number of events
• Case study is an empirical inquiry that investigates a contemporary
phenomenon within its real-life context;

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 HOW TO USE CASE STUDY METHOD?

Six steps:
1. Determine and define the research questions
2. Select the cases and determine data gathering and analysis techniques
3. Prepare to collect the data
4. Collect data in the field
5. Evaluate and analyze the data
6. Prepare the report
(see Robert K. Yin, Stake, R. E. , etc)
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 IN THE CASE STUDY…

• A case study is an in-depth study as compared to studies with many

observations (breath).
• Usually answers one or more questions which begin with "how" or "why."
• To conduct a literature review to assist in defining the research questions
• To find out what has already been done by literature review

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

HOW TO SELECT CASE STUDY OBJECTS?

• Carefully select cases increase the validity of the study.

• Decide whether to study cases which are unique in some way, or
• Cases which are considered typical and may also select cases to
represent a variety of geographic regions, a variety of sizes, etc.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

STAY FOCUSED IS IMPORTANT!

• One way to stay focused is to repeatedly refer back to the purpose

of the study in order to focus attention on where to look for cases
and evidence that will satisfy the purpose of the study
• Data gathered is normally largely qualitative, but it may also be
quantitative.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

…THE END RESULT COUNTS!

• Think about the potential audience and keep them in mind when
you design the study, and present your findings
• Is your findings significant to people in the particular industry?
• Most importantly, are you satisfied with your findings and
research?

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 POTENTIAL RISK:

• Biases the findings: are you objective?

• External validity? How to strengthen it?
Techniques such as cross-case examination and within-case
examination along with literature review helps ensure external
validity.
• Generalizability?
• Significance of the findings?
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
WHAT TO DO IN THE DISSERTATION?

• You are required to undertake a research project (Dissertation)

which addresses an issue of strategic or functional importance to
your organization
• You need to provide not only an account of what occurred in terms
of the sequence of the events but also the influencing factors,
roles of key players, and the impact of decisions both intended and
emergent.
• It is a reflection on the past.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
GENERAL REGULATIONS

1. Citing and Referencing

• Projects normally contain 20 -25 of relevant references from
different sources in the reference list
• We chose to use the Harvard (author–date) referencing system.
• Follow the citation and reference manual

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

GENERAL REGULATIONS (CONT-)
2. REFERENCE LISTS V. BIBLIOGRAPHIES
• The difference between a reference list and a bibliography is this:
a reference lists notes any sources you have actually cited within your document;
a bibliography lists all sources you consulted while writing your document,
whether they were cited or not.
• Arrange your list alphabetically by author surname, without using bullet points
or any other list marker to begin your entry
• References should be single line space with a blank line in between each
reference.
• References follow the sequence:  Author  Date Title Publisher Place of
Publication.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
GENERAL REGULATIONS (CONT-)
3. STYLE
o 12 point CALIBRI ;
o line spacing of 1.5 lines;
o language set as English (Australian);
o default Microsoft Word margin settings (3.17 left/right and 2.54
top/bottom);
o left aligned.
O Final submission of the finished Project report with a total content
about 40-80 pages (excluding your cover page, the executive summary,
table of contents, list of references and appendices)
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
RESEARCH PROJECT PHASES

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

PHASES IN THE RESEARCH PROJECT

• Phase 1: Orientation and development of the Project Proposal

• Phase 2: Data collection and analysis
• Phase 3: Project

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 RESEARCH PROCESS FLOWCHART

1. Identifying 2. Developing 3. Conducting 4. Identifying

the research research literature the research
issue questions. overview methodology

5. Collecting
data

9. Showing the research 8. Discussing 7. Using Key 6. Analysing

questions have been findings and relating findings to data (Key
back to literature
DBA- Research answered
Methodology andand research
Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy
answer research findings).
12/09/2024
overview.
issue has been questions.
addressed.
PROJECT’S CRITERIA

• Identify the critical need(s) or issue(s) confronting an existing

organization or a newly forming organization
• • Integrate the literature in the discipline area of the project
• • Describe and justify the use of a research methodology
• • Ensure ethical issues of informed consent are observed
• • Describe the research process and analyse the data.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
HOW TO CHOOSE A PROJECT?
• What is an issue or area that I need to know more about if I am
going to build my career or business?
• What types of organizational or entrepreneurial examples could
provide the most learning for me?

A starting point for answering these questions is to think about the

MBA subjects and the assignments and topics within those subjects
that you received the best marks for and enjoyed the most.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
STRUCTURE OF THE PROJECT
PROPOSAL
• Title/Topic page
• Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Focus for the study
3. Project related literature summary
4. Planned methodology
5. Schedule for completion
• References
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

• Appendices
THE PROJECT PROPOSAL

Title/Topic page
State your proposed project research topic title. It should be descriptive of the focus and
concise.

1. Introduction has 2 parts:

• Background
Provide background information about the organization that is the site of research.

• Project research problem (need for the study)

Establish the need forHisham
your
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis
study by describing the problem
Sharawy 12/09/2024

and related issues in the area that you intend to research.

THE PROJECT PROPOSAL (CONT-)
2. Focus for the study has 3 parts:
• Purpose of research project
Provide a clear and succinct statement of the purpose of your
research.
• Research questions
List your research questions. Your research questions (usually
“what”, “how”, “why” or “what if”) should number about 4-6.
• Significance of the project
Indicate the outcomes you hope to achieve for policy and/or
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

practice in your organization from this research.

THE PROJECT PROPOSAL (CONT-)
3. Project related literature summary
• The connection to the background of your degree studies must
first be explained.
• Indicate your initial understanding of the Project topic based on a
review of the literature.
• List some of those references, which will usually include one or
more of your textbooks and published articles relevant to your
project.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 THE PROJECT PROPOSAL (CONT-)

4. Planned methodology (data collection, data analysis)

• Describe the research methodology you plan to use, and why it is the most suited for
answering your particular research questions. .
• Describe the secondary data sources you will use. Are there specific published materials
that can be used to provide some background and form the foundations of your research?
• Explain the primary data you plan to obtain and the data collection methods you will
employ such as observation, surveys, interviews and focus groups.
• What questions will you be asking and which people or organizations would you involve?
• Explain that you will be arranging for each interviewee or respondent to sign the Research
Consent Forms and that you will include those forms as an appendix to your Project.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
THE PROJECT PROPOSAL (CONT-)

5. Schedule for completion

• Depict the tasks proposed and the stages/times for their
completion.
• A schedule or Gantt chart would be appropriate to help with the
planning of research activities and timelines. Label your timetable
‘Figure01/10/2014
1’ along15/10/2014
01/01/2015 with the01/11/2014
title above the10/12/2014
01/12/2014
diagram.

DBA- Research Methodology andProject

Data Analysis Project
Hisham Sharawy Data First Draft Review Final 12/09/2024
proposal Literature Collection Submission
Research
PROJECT PROPOSAL EVALUATION
CHECKLIST

• It is very important for you to remember that your Project Proposal must
be evaluated and approved by before you can proceed to undertake the
research required for the Project and write up your Project.
• This Checklist covers the key sections of structure of the Project Proposal
as detailed .
• ensure that your Project Proposal will meet the requirements for
approval. If not, you will be required to correct and re-submit
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
STRUCTURE OF THE PROJECT
• Title/Topic page
• Executive summary
• Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Orientation
3. Data collection and analysis
4. Key findings
5. Key implications
6. Conclusion
• References
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

• Appendices
THE PROJECT DETAILS

Title/Topic page
• The title of the project may be similar to the title of the
Project Proposal but you may wish to modify it after
feedback is provided from the assessor
• The title should also not be too long and 10 words or less
is usually quite sufficient.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
THE PROJECT DETAILS (CONT-)
Executive summary
The executive summary is written after the first draft of the Project is completed. It is about
long and should cover the following:

• a short theme sentence to orient the reader

• what was the purpose of the Project?
• why did you do it, why is it important?
• the research methodology (data collection and analysis) - what did
you do and what happened?
• what were the results or findings?
• what are the implications, what is your work good for (for example,
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis
Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

how does it confirm or disconfirm the literature, and what are the
 THE PROJECT DETAILS (CONT-)
1. Introduction
The Introduction should be no more than of your Project and should cover
five core ideas that are different from the executive summary was about:
1. Establish the background field (the aspect of your degree studies that this
Project will focus on), and assert its significant position in theory or practice;
2. summarize previous research (only one or two brief paragraphs max)
3. indicate gaps, inconsistencies or controversies, and why they are important;
4. state the purpose of the present research (to address point 3), state briefly
the main aspects of how data was collected and analyzed, andconclusions of
the research (and advanced students may add a sentence about their
contributions (related to point 3));
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

5. outline of the Project.

 THE PROJECT DETAILS (CONT-)

2. Orientation
Here, We will orient the reader by describing the background of the
research Project in 2-3 pages. There are two parts of this section:
• The first part provides some more of the literature about the
background field. You provided one or two paragraphs about this
in the Introduction. But here you provide more evidence that you
have read the literature.
• The second part of this section describes the subject organization
that is the target of the study. Discuss its origins
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 THE PROJECT DETAILS (CONT-)

3. Data collection and analysis:

• How you collected your information, for example, through
interviews or case studies.
• you must describe the data collection methods used (such as how
the interviews were done) with some references to the textbook
and other sources to show that the methods were applied
correctly.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 THE PROJECT DETAILS (CONT-)

3. Data collection and analysis:

If you use just one case, you should justify doing so. Having only
one case is unusual but can be justified if it meets just one or more
of these three criteria (Yin 1994):
• The case is a critical one for confirming, challenging or extending
a theory because it is the only one that meets all of the conditions
of the theory;
• The case is rare or extreme and finding other cases is so unlikely
• The case provides unusual access for academic research, and
unless the case is investigated, an opportunity to investigate a
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

significant social science problem may be lost.

 THE PROJECT DETAILS (CONT-)

3. Data collection methods

one - initial reconnaissance
Two – interviews (Including data analysis)
Three - survey (Including data analysis)
Four – Questionnaires (Including data analysis)
Five – Focus grouping (Including data analysis)

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 STRATEGIES FOR RAPID REPORTING

• Use short forms with limited questions

• Identify the most appropriate method of transmission
• Determine a reasonable timeline for data collection
• Streamline and simplify bottom-to-top reporting
• Transmitting election day checklists vs. critical incidents
DATA COLLECTION ASPECTS

• Defining the way to collect

• No of interviews, questionnaires, no of participants in surveys
• Location to conduct
• Conduction environment
• Selecting sample: Random, defined, undefined
• Time of conducting the methodology
• Type: structured, unstructured

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 THE PROJECT DETAILS (CONT-)

4. Key findings :
In this section, you take a step back and look at the data to try to identify the key
findings.

5. Key implications
What were the three or four main learning points or principles that you and the
reader can take away and apply in other situations in the future? In this section,
you look at the implications of your findings for three different targets:
• The literature, that is, ideas in your textbooks and articles
• Managers in the case
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

• Other managers in your country or region

 THE PROJECT DETAILS (CONT-)
6. Conclusion
In this final section, you should cover challenges or issues that
remain unresolved. You should give a summary statement about the
organization purpose as set out in the Introduction has been
achieve.

Apart from the challenges or issues that remain unresolved, there

should not be any new concepts or ideas suddenly introduced in the
Conclusion. The Conclusion merely ties everything that has gone
before into one short package. Thus, the Conclusion section is rarely
longer than one page or so in length.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
 WHAT IS INTERPRETATION IN
RESEARCH?

• Interpretation refers to the task of drawing inferences from

the collected facts after an analytical and or experimental
study. … the effort to establish continuity in research through
linking the results of a given study with those of another, and
the establishment of some explanation concepts.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

WHAT DOES GENERALIZATION MEAN
IN RESEARCH?

• Generalization, which is an act of reasoning that involves drawing

broad inferences from particular observations, is widely-
acknowledged as a quality standard in quantitative research, but is
more controversial in qualitative research

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

WHY IS GENERALIZATION IMPORTANT IN
RESEARCH?
• Generalization is an essential component of the wider scientific
process. In an ideal world, to test a hypothesis, you would sample
an entire population. It is what allows researchers to take what
they have learnt on a small scale and relate it more broadly to the
bigger picture.
What is generalization with example?
• Generalization, in psychology, the tendency to respond in the
same way to different but similar stimuli. … For example, a child
who is scared by a man with a beard may fail to discriminate
between bearded men and generalize that all men with beards are
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

to be feared.
WHAT ARE THE THREE TYPES OF
GENERALIZATION?

Generalization includes three specific forms: Stimulus

generalization, response generalization, and maintenance. Stimulus
generalization involves the occurrence of a behavior in response to
another similar stimulus

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF
GENERALIZATION?
• Generalization can also be used to refer to the process of identifying the
parts of a whole, as belonging to the whole. The parts, which might be
unrelated when left on their own, may be brought together as a group, hence
belonging to the whole by establishing a common relation between them.
What is an example of an interpretation?
• The definition of an interpretation is an explanation of a view of a person,
place, work, thing, etc. An example of interpretation is a feminist perspective
on a work of literature. … The act or result of interpreting; explanation,
meaning, translation, exposition, etc.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
WHAT ARE THE STEPS IN DATA
INTERPRETATION?

There are four steps to data interpretation:

• 1) assemble the information you’ll need,
• 2) develop findings,
• 3) develop conclusions, and
• 4) develop recommendations.

The following sections describe each step. The sections on findings, conclusions,
and recommendations suggest
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy
questions you should answer at each step
12/09/2024
WHAT ARE THE TYPES OF
GENERALIZATION?
• you can discover 11 synonyms, antonyms, idiomatic expressions, and related
words for generalization, like: generalisation, globality, stimulus
generalization, globalism, stimulus generalisation, inference, deductive,
induction, generality, inductive-reasoning and abstraction.

What is replicability in research?

• Replicability means obtaining consistent results across studies aimed at
answering the same scientific question using new data or other new
computational methods. One typically expects reproducibility in
computational results, but expectations about replicability are more nuanced.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
HOW DO YOU EXPLAIN
GENERALIZATION?
• In everyday language, a generalization is defined as a broad statement or an
idea that is applied to a group of people or things. Often, generalizations are
not entirely true, because there are usually examples of individuals or
situations wherein the generalization does not apply.
What are examples of hasty generalization?
• When I was young, my manager and clleagues never helped with the task
chores. …
• The new employee in my department was bullied by other employees. …
• Dozens of customers come to our bank for financial help. …
• I dealt with three representative in …….and didn’t like the experience.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
WHICH ARE THE STEPS OF
GENERALIZATION?

Steps for Generalization

1. Identify situations in which you want the behavior to occur
(target stimulus situations).
2. Identify natural sources of reinforcement for the behavior.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

RELIABILITY AND VALIDITY

They are both about how well a method measures something:

• Reliability refers to the consistency of a measure (whether the
results can be reproduced under the same conditions).
• Validity refers to the accuracy of a measure (whether the results
really do represent what they are supposed to measure).

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 DATA ANALYTICS

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 Future success will
depend largely on
ability to use data to
make optimal business
decisions

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

WHAT IS ANALYTICS?

Analytics is the discovery and communication of

meaningful patterns in data

Especially valuable in areas rich with recorded information,

analytics relies on the simultaneous application of
statistics, computer programming and
operations research to quantify performance

- Wikipedia
DATA ANALYTICS

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 “Data analysis is the process of bringing order, structure, and
meaning to the mass of collected data. It is a messy,
ambiguous, time-consuming, creative, and fascinating
process. It does not proceed in linear fashion; it is not neat.”
(Marshall & Rossman, 1999; as cited in Elkins, 2009)

What does the data tell you

about whether the
program/service
accomplished its intended
purpose?

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 WHY DO WE ANALYZE DATA

The purpose of analysing data is to obtain

usable and useful information. The analysis,
irrespective of whether the data is
qualitative or quantitative, may:

• describe and summarise the data

• identify relationships between variables
• compare variables
• identify the difference between variables
• forecast outcomes
 WAYS TO USE DATA ANALYSIS

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 AIR Mission
The mission of Student Life
Assessment, Improvement, &
Research (AIR) is to lead
outcomes-based assessment
in the co-curricular setting,
support evidence-based
decision-making, and
promote a culture focused on
the continuous improvement
of programs and services.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 DATA ANALYTICS

DATA LAKE DATA STREAM

• Storage • Real-time data

• Long-term historical data • Parallel analysis
• Easy • Difficult

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 SCALES OF MEASUREMENT

Many people are confused about Ordinal scale

what type of analysis to use on a An ordinal scale is where:
the data can be classified into non-numerical or
set of data and the relevant forms
named categories
of pictorial presentation or data an inherent order exists among the response
display. The decision is based on the categories.
scale of measurement of the data. Ordinal scales are seen in questions that call for
These scales are nominal, ordinal ratings of quality (for example, very good, good,
and numerical. fair, poor, very poor) and agreement (for
example, strongly agree, agree, disagree,
Nominal scale strongly disagree).
Numerical scale
A nominal scale is where:
A numerical scale is:
the data can be where numbers represent the possible
classified numerical or named response categories
categories, and the order in there is a natural ranking of the categories
which these categories can be zero on the scale has meaning
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATIONS
give overview of
data
Number of errors made

10
Number of errors made

2 Internet use
0
0 5 10 15 20 < once a day
User
once a day

once a week
Number of errors made
2 or 3 times
4.5

Number of errors made

4
a week 3.5
3
once a 2.5
2
1.5
month
1
0.5
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17
User
VISUALIZING LOG DATA

Interaction
profiles of players
in online game

Log of web page

activity
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
INTRODUCTION SOME BASIC
CONCEPTS

Statistics is a field of study concerned with

1- collection, organization, summarization and analysis of data.
2- drawing of inferences about a body of data when only a part of
the data is observed.
Statisticians try to interpret and communicate the results to others.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

APPROACH TO ANALYSIS DEPENDS ON THE NATURE
OF THE DATA
• Qualitative data
• Describes things in terms of categorizations or qualities
• Examples:
• Responses to a survey that asks students to define leadership in their own words.
• Notes and recordings from a focus group in which students responded to the following
questions…

• Quantitative data
• Can be counted or expressed numerically
• Examples:
• Responses to a survey that asks students to rate their level of agreement (1=Strongly
Disagree, 5=Strongly
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis
Agree) with the following statement…
Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

• A pile of rubrics that rate students on their understanding of the importance of physical
activity
QUALITATIVE DATA ANALYSIS
“Qualitative data analysis is a search for general statements about relationships among categories of data”
(Marshall & Rossman, 1999; as cited in Elkins, 2009).

• Qualitative data is often rich in detail

• Coding: “Organizing and making sense of textual information resulting from a study by
determining themes (categories) in the data.” (Bogdan & Biklen, 1998)

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

QUALITATIVE DATA ANALYSIS
The process:

• Organize the data

• Give the data a “once-over,” noting initial impressions
• Categorize the data
• You can (a) determine the categories ahead of time, (b) allow the categories to
emerge from the data, or (c) do both
• You may end up with “categories of categories” (i.e. categories and subcategories)
• This is an iterative process

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

QUALITATIVE DATA ANALYSIS
The process (continued):

• Determine the relative significance of each category by counting the number of times it occurs
• Note responses that do not fit into the categories
• Find compelling quotes to include in your assessment report

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

QUALITATIVE DATA ANALYSIS
The process (continued):

• Take a step back

• What do the data tell you about your assessment question?
• What are the limitations?
• What are the implications? Does it lead you to make changes or confirm your approach (or both)?
• What, if anything, will you change about the assessment process?

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 WHAT IS ONE THING YOU
LEARNED FROM THE EXCEL
SESSION?
To go to my professor's office hours
Just to go to class and to pay attention to do well in school.
Talking to professors
Some of the ways to do well in my classes.
I learned about asking questions, and going to office hours
Semester-hour expectations for each semester and graduation
You need to go to lecture halls!
to pay attention in lecture.
Some expectations of the college learning environment.
how to be a good student
Be where you need to be and when you need to be there
The online classes you can take
to do my best
Don't be afraid to talk to your professors.
Go to classes/office hours.
It is important to go above and beyond
Can't remember

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

EMERGING CATEGORIES
Theme Code
Academic behaviors/skills 1
Professors/TAs (office hours, get to know them) 2
Expectations (class, academics, professors) 3
Challenge yourself 4
Don’t remember 5

Code Response
2 To go to my professor's office hours
3 Some expectations of the college learning environment.
4 2 To challenge myself and talk to my professors

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

TIPS
• Make a note and revisit later

• “Other Category”
• Question: What is one thing you learned from the Excel session?
• “The leader gave her own input so it calmed down some of the nerves.”

• “Junk” Category
• Question: What do you like most about college?
• “My biceps.”

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

EMERGING CATEGORIES CONT.

Sample Quotes:
• “Attending classes is more than just being in class, you need to
participate.”
• “It was too generic. The only thing that was positive about the Excel
sessions is when the group leaders went off topic and told about ways
that they could be successful and inside tips that they have learned.”
• “That college professors and TAs are willing to help students, and
aren't as mean or scary as one might think.”
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
EXERCISE

In your previous groups...

• Take 5 minutes to determine what categories you see in the table
of responses provided in the "first look at themes" document
• What do the responses tell us?

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS TOOLS

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

QUALITATIVE DATA ANALYSIS METHODS
(QDA)

• Content analysis
• Thematic analysis
• Narrative analysis
• Grounded theory analysis
• Discourse analysis

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 1. CONTENT ANALYSIS

• The method transforms qualitative input into quantitative data to help

you make reliable conclusions about what customers think of your brand
as ex., and how you can improve their experience and opinion.
• Content analysis is often used by marketers and customer service
specialists, helping them understand customer behavior and measure
brand reputation.
• For example, you may run a customer survey with open-ended questions
to discover users’ concerns—in their own words—about their
experience with your product. Instead of having to process hundreds of
answers manually, a content analysis tool helps you analyze and group
results based on the emotion expressed in texts.
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
SOME OTHER EXAMPLES OF CONTENT
ANALYSIS
Jan
• Analyzing brand mentions on social media 2021

to understand your brand's reputation

• Reviewing customer feedback to evaluate
(and then improve) the customer
and user experience (UX)
• Researching competitors’ website pages to identify their
competitive advantages and value propositions
• Interpreting customer interviews and survey results to
determine user preferences, and setting the direction for
DBA- new product
Research Methodology and Dataor feature
Analysis developments
Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
CONTENT ANALYSIS BENEFITS

Content analysis has some significant advantages for small teams:

• You don’t need to directly interact with participants to collect data
• The process is easily replicable once standardized
• You can automate the process or perform it manually
• It doesn’t require high investments or sophisticated solutions

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

CONTENT ANALYSIS LIMITATIONS

Content analysis has certain limitations:

• When conducted manually, it can be incredibly time-consuming
• The results are usually affected by subjective interpretation
• Manual content analysis can be subject to human error
• The process isn’t effective for complex textual analysis

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 2. THEMATIC ANALYSIS

Thematic analysis helps to identify, analyze, and interpret patterns in

qualitative data

While content analysis and thematic analysis seem similar, they're

different in concept:
• Content analysis can be applied to both
qualitative and quantitative data, and focuses on identifying
frequencies and recurring words and subjects.
• Thematic analysis can only be applied to qualitative data, and
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
focuses on identifying patterns and ‘themes’.
THEMATIC ANALYSIS

• Thematic analysis can be used by pretty much

anyone: from product marketers, to customer
relationship managers, to UX researchers.
• For example, product teams can use thematic
analysis to better understand user behaviors
and needs, and to improve UX. By analyzing
customer feedback, you can identify themes (e.g.
‘poor navigation’ or ‘buggy mobile interface’)
highlighted by users, and get actionable insight
into what users really expect from the product
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
THEMATIC ANALYSIS BENEFITS

Some benefits of thematic analysis:

• It’s one of the most accessible analysis forms, meaning you don’t
have to train your teams on it
• Teams can easily draw important information from raw data
• It’s an effective way to process large amounts of data into
digestible summaries

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

DRAWBACKS OF THEMATIC ANALYSIS

• In a complex narrative, thematic analysis can't capture the true

meaning of a text
• Thematic analysis doesn’t consider the context of the data being
analyzed
• Similar to content analysis, the method is subjective and might
drive results that don't necessarily align with reality

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

3. NARRATIVE ANALYSIS
• Narrative analysis is a method used to interpret research participants’ stories—things
like testimonials, case studies, interviews, and other text or visual data.
• Some formats narrative analysis doesn't work for are heavily-structured interviews
and written surveys, which don’t give participants as much opportunity to tell their
stories in their own words
• Narrative analysis provides product teams with valuable insight into the complexity
of customers’ lives, feelings, and behaviors. Ex. social media, for example—to get
more insight into their lives, priorities, and challenges.
• This might look like analyzing daily content shared by your audiences’ favorite
influencers on Instagram, or analyzing customer reviews on sites like G2 or Capterra
to understand individual
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis
customers' experiences
Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
NARRATIVE ANALYSIS BENEFITS

Businesses turn to narrative analysis for a number of reasons:

• The method provides you with a deep understanding of your
customers' actions—and the motivations behind them
• It allows you to personalize customer experiences
• It keeps customer profiles as wholes, instead of fragmenting them
into components that can be interpreted differently

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

DRAWBACKS OF NARRATIVE ANALYSIS

• Narrative analysis cannot be automated

• It requires a lot of time and manual effort
to make conclusions on an individual
participant’s story
• It’s not scalable

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

4. GROUNDED THEORY ANALYSIS

• It is a method of conducting qualitative research to develop theories by examining

real-world data. The technique involves the creation of hypotheses and theories
through the collection and evaluation of qualitative data.
• It is used by software engineers, product marketers, managers, and other
specialists that deal with data to make informed business decisions.
• For example, product marketing teams may turn to customer surveys to
understand the reasons behind high churn rates, then use grounded theory to
analyze responses and develop hypotheses about why users churn, and how you
can get them to stay.
• Grounded theory can also be helpful in the talent management process. For
example, HR representatives may use it to develop theories about low employee
DBA-engagement, and
Research Methodology and Data Analysis come upSharawy
Hisham with solutions based on their findings. 12/09/2024
GROUNDED THEORY ANALYSIS
EXAMPLE

• Grounded Theory Is Often Used By

The HR Department. For Instance,
They Might Study Why Employees
Are Frustrated By Their Work.
Employees Can Explain What They
Feel Is Lacking. HR Then Gathers
This Data, Examines The Results To
Discover The Root Cause Of Their
turnover

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

GROUNDED THEORY ANALYSIS
BENEFITS

Teams turn to grounded theory analysis because:

• It explains events that can’t be explained with existing theories
• The findings are tightly connected to data
• The results are data-informed, and therefore represent the proven
state of things
• It’s a useful method for researchers that know very little
information on the topic
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
DRAWBACKS OF GROUNDED THEORY

• The process requires a lot of objectivity, creativity, and

critical thinking from researchers
• Because theories are developed based on data instead
of the other way around, it's considered to be overly
theoretical, and may not provide concise answers to
qualitative research questions

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

5. DISCOURSE ANALYSIS

• Discourse analysis is the act of researching the underlying meaning of

qualitative data. It involves the observation of texts, audio, and videos
to study the relationships between the information and its context.
• In contrast to content analysis, the method focuses on the contextual
meaning of language: discourse analysis sheds light on what audiences think
of a topic, and why they feel the way they do about it. In a business context,
the method is primarily used by marketing teams. Discourse analysis helps
marketers understand the norms and ideas in their market, and reveals why
they play such a significant role for their customers.
• Once the origins of trends are uncovered, it’s easier to develop a company
mission, create a unique
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis
tone of voice, and craft effective marketing 12/09/2024
Hisham Sharawy
messages
DISCOURSE ANALYSIS BENEFITS DRAWBACKS

Discourse analysis has the following benefits:

• It uncovers the motivation behind your customers’ or employees’ words, written or
spoken
• It helps teams discover the meaning of customer data, competitors’ strategies, and
employee feedback

But it also has drawbacks:

• Similar to most qualitative data analysis methods, discourse analysis is subjective
• The process is time-consuming and labor-intensive
• It’s very broad in its approach
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
WHICH QUALITATIVE DATA ANALYSIS
METHOD SHOULD YOU CHOOSE?
• While the five qualitative data analysis methods
we list above are aimed at processing data
and answering research questions, these
techniques differ in their intent and
the approaches applied.
• Choosing the right analysis method
for your team isn't a matter of
preference—selecting a method
that fits is only possible when you define your
research goals and have
Hishama clear intention. Once you know what you 12/09/2024
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis
Sharawy need (and why you
need it), you can identify an analysis method that aligns with your objectives.
ROLE OF STATISTICIANS

To guide the design of an experiment or survey prior to data

collection To analyze data using proper statistical procedures and
techniques To present and interpret the results to researchers
and other decision makers

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTICS OF
DATA
1. Center: A representative or average value that indicates where the middle of the data set is
located
2. Variation: A measure of the amount that the values vary among themselves
3. Distribution: The nature or shape of the distribution of data (such as bell-shaped, uniform,
or skewed)
4. Outliers: Sample values that lie very far away from the vast majority of other sample values
5. Time: Changing characteristics of the data over time

Most important
DBA- Research characteristics
Methodology and Data Analysis necessary to describe, explore, and compare data
Hisham Sharawy sets
12/09/2024
EXERCISE

In your groups...
• Take 5 minutes to discuss any previous experiences you have had
working with qualitative and/or quantitative data
• Be prepared to share out to the large group!

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

QUANTITATIVE DATA ANALYSIS
The process:
• Organize the data
• Give the data a “once-over,” noting initial impressions
• Four analytic strategies
• Description (frequencies, percentages, mean, median, mode, range,
standard deviation)
• Differences (participants vs. non-participants; do certain participants do
better than others?
• Change (pre/post)
• Expectations (do students meet our expectations of learning/competency)
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
QUANTITATIVE DATA ANALYSIS
The process (continued):
• Alone, neither measures of central tendency (e.g. mean, median,
mode) nor measures of variability (e.g. range, standard deviation)
tell the whole story. Consider:
• Group 1 scores: 190, 195, 199, 200, 200, 201, 205, 210
• Group 2 scores: 0, 10, 20, 200, 200, 380, 390, 400
• Scores from Group 1 and Group 2 have the same central
tendency but different variability

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

QUANTITATIVE DATA ANALYSIS

The process (continued):

• Just reporting the mean can be misleading. For example,
average salary of Private sector employees is $51,000. What
role might ABC’s salary play in this figure? Consider how
having the median and more might be more helpful.

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024

 HOW EFFECTIVE WAS THE EXCEL
LECTURE AT:
%
Mean
responding %
% responding response
somewhat responding
very (1=very
Item ineffective effective or
ineffective or ineffective to
or very
ineffective 6=very
somewhat effective
effective)
effective
Outlining the
expectations for 16% 44% 40% 4.0
academics?

Exercise: What do the responses tell us?

DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS SYSTEM (SAS)
Allows user access to:
• Retrieve information and manage data
• Write reports and create graphics
• Statistical analysis, econometrics and data mining
• Operations research and project management
• Quality improvement
• Data warehousing (extract, transform, load)
• Platform independent and remote computing
DBA- Research Methodology and Data Analysis Hisham Sharawy 12/09/2024
STATISTICAL DESCRIPTION OF DATA
• Statistics describes a numeric set of data by its
• Center
• Variability
• Shape
• Statistics describes a categorical set of data by
• Frequency, percentage or proportion of each category
SOME DEFINITIONS

• Variable - any characteristic of an individual or entity. A variable can take different

values for different individuals. Variables can be categorical or quantitative. Per S. S.
Stevens…
• Ordinal - Variables with an inherent rank or order, e.g. mild, moderate, severe. Can be
compared for equality, or greater or less, but not how much greater or less.
• Interval - Values of the variable are ordered as in Ordinal, and additionally, differences
between values are meaningful, however, the scale is not absolutely anchored. Calendar
dates and temperatures on the Fahrenheit scale are examples. Addition and
subtraction, but not multiplication and division are meaningful operations.
• Ratio - Variables with all properties of Interval plus an absolute, non-arbitrary zero point,
e.g. age, weight, temperature (Kelvin). Addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division
are all meaningful operations.
SOME DEFINITIONS

Distribution - (of a variable) tells us what values the variable takes

and how often it takes these values.
• Unimodal - having a single peak
• Bimodal - having two distinct peaks
• Symmetric - left and right half are mirror images.
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION

Consider a data set of 26 children of ages 1-6 years. Then the

frequency distribution of variable ‘age’ can be tabulated as follows:

Frequency Distribution of Age

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6
Frequency 5 3 7 5 4 2

Grouped Frequency Distribution of Age:

Age Group 1-2 3-4 5-6

Frequency 8 12 6
CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY

Cumulative frequency of data in previous page

Age 1 2 3 4 5 6
Frequency 5 3 7 5 4 2
Cumulative Frequency 5 8 15 20 24 26

Age Group 1-2 3-4 5-6

Frequency 8 12 6
Cumulative Frequency 8 20 26
DATA PRESENTATION

Two types of statistical presentation of data - graphical and numerical.

Graphical Presentation: We look for the overall pattern and for striking
deviations from that pattern. Over all pattern usually described by shape,
center, and spread of the data. An individual value that falls outside the
overall pattern is called an outlier.
Bar diagram and Pie charts are used for categorical variables.
Histogram, stem and leaf and Box-plot are used for numerical variable.
Data Presentation –Categorical Variable

Bar Diagram: Lists the categories and presents the percent

or count of individuals who fall in each category.
Figure 1: Bar Chart of Subje cts in
Tre atm e nt Groups
Treatment Frequency Proportion Percent
Group (%)
Number of Subjects

30
25
1 15 (15/60)=0.25 25.0
20
15
2 25 (25/60)=0.333 41.7
10
3 20 (20/60)=0.417 33.3
5
0 Total 60 1.00 100
1 2 3
Tre atm e nt Group
 Data Presentation –Categorical
Variable
Pie Chart: Lists the categories and presents the percent or count of individuals who fall in
each category.

Figure 2: Pie Chart of Treatment Frequency Proportion Percent

Subjects in Treatment Groups Group (%)

1 15 (15/60)=0.25 25.0

25% 2 25 (25/60)=0.333 41.7

33% 1
2 3 20 (20/60)=0.417 33.3

3 Total 60 1.00 100

42%
GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION –NUMERICAL
VARIABLE
Histogram: Overall pattern can be described by its shape,
center, and spread. The following age distribution is right
skewed. The center lies between 80 to 100. No outliers.
Count 60

Standard Error 3.902649518

Median 84
Figure 3: Age Distribution
Mode 84
16 Standard Deviation 30.22979318
14
Sample Variance 913.8403955
Number of Subjects

12
10 Kurtosis -1.183899591
8 Skewness 0.389872725
6
Range 95
4
2
Minimum 48

0 Maximum 143
40 60 80 100 120 140 More
Sum 5425
Age in Month
 NUMERICAL PRESENTATION
A fundamental concept in summary statistics is that of a central value for a set
of observations and the extent to which the central value characterizes the
whole set of data. Measures of central value such as the mean or median must
be coupled with measures of data dispersion (e.g., average distance from the
mean) to indicate how well the central value characterizes the data as a whole.
To understand how well a central value characterizes a set of observations, let
us consider the following two sets of data:
A: 30, 50, 70
B: 40, 50, 60
The mean of both two data sets is 50. But, the distance of the observations
from the mean in data set A is larger than in the data set B. Thus, the mean of
data set B is a better representation of the data set than is the case for set A.
METHODS OF CENTER MEASUREMENT

Center measurement is a summary measure of the overall level

of a dataset
Commonly used methods are mean, median, mode, geometric
mean etc.
Mean: Summing up all the observation and dividing by number
of observations. Mean of 20, 30, 40 is (20+30+40)/3 = 30.
Notation : Let x1 , x2 , ...xn are n observations of a variable
x. Then the mean of this variable,
n

x1  x2  ...  xn x i
x  i 1
n n
METHODS OF CENTER MEASUREMENT

Median: The middle value in an ordered sequence of observations.

That is, to find the median we need to order the data set and then find
the middle value. In case of an even number of observations the
average of the two middle most values is the median. For example, to
find the median of {9, 3, 6, 7, 5}, we first sort the data giving {3, 5, 6, 7,
9}, then choose the middle value 6. If the number of observations is
even, e.g., {9, 3, 6, 7, 5, 2}, then the median is the average of the two
middle values from the sorted sequence, in this case, (5 + 6) / 2 = 5.5.
Mode: The value that is observed most frequently. The mode is
undefined for sequences in which no observation is repeated.
MEAN OR MEDIAN
The median is less sensitive to outliers (extreme scores)
than the mean and thus a better measure than the
mean for highly skewed distributions, e.g. family
income. For example mean of 20, 30, 40, and 990 is
(20+30+40+990)/4 =270. The median of these four
observations is (30+40)/2 =35. Here 3 observations out
of 4 lie between 20-40. So, the mean 270 really fails to
give a realistic picture of the major part of the data. It is
influenced by extreme value 990.
METHODS OF VARIABILITY MEASUREMENT

Variability (or dispersion) measures the amount of scatter in a dataset.

Commonly used methods: range, variance, standard deviation,

interquartile range, coefficient of variation etc.

Range: The difference between the largest and the smallest

observations. The range of 10, 5, 2, 100 is (100-2)=98. It’s a crude
measure of variability.
METHODS OF VARIABILITY MEASUREMENT

Variance: The variance of a set of observations is the

average of the squares of the deviations of the
observations from their2 mean. In....symbols,
( x1  x ) 2   ( xn  x ) 2 the variance
S 
of the n observations x1, x2,…xn isn  1

Variance of 5, 7, 3? Mean is (5+7+3)/3 = 5 and the

variance is (5  5) 2  (3  5) 2  (7  5) 2
4
3 1
Standard Deviation: Square root of the variance. The
standard deviation of the above example is 2.
METHODS OF VARIABILITY MEASUREMENT
Quartiles: Data can be divided into four regions that cover the total range of
observed values. Cut points for these regions are known as quartiles.
In notations, quartiles of a data is the ((n+1)/4)qth observation of the data, where q
is the desired quartile and n is the number of observations of data.

The first quartile (Q1) is the first 25% of the data. The second quartile (Q2) is
between the 25th and 50th percentage points in the data. The upper bound of Q2 is
the median. The third quartile (Q3) is the 25% of the data lying between the median
and the 75% cut point in the data.

Q1 is the median of the first half of the ordered observations and Q3 is the median
of the second half of the ordered observations.
METHODS OF VARIABILITY MEASUREMENT

In the following example Q1= ((15+1)/4)1 =4th observation of the data. The 4th
observation is 11. So Q1 is of this data is 11.

An example with 15 numbers

3 6 7 11 13 22 30 40 44 50 52 61 68 80 94
Q1 Q2 Q3
The first quartile is Q1=11. The second quartile is Q2=40 (This is also the
Median.) The third quartile is Q3=61.

Inter-quartile Range: Difference between Q3 and Q1. Inter-quartile range of the

previous example is 61- 40=21. The middle half of the ordered data lie between 40
and 61.
DECILES AND PERCENTILES
Deciles: If data is ordered and divided into 10 parts, then cut points are called
Deciles
Percentiles: If data is ordered and divided into 100 parts, then cut points are
called Percentiles. 25th percentile is the Q1, 50th percentile is the Median (Q2) and
the 75th percentile of the data is Q3.
In notations, percentiles of a data is the ((n+1)/100)p th observation of the data,
where p is the desired percentile and n is the number of observations of data.

Coefficient of Variation: The standard deviation of data divided by it’s mean. It is usually
expressed in percent. 
Coefficient of Variation = x 100
FIVE NUMBER SUMMARY

Five Number Summary: The five number summary of a

distribution consists of the smallest (Minimum) observation, the
first quartile (Q1),
The median(Q2), the third quartile, and the largest (Maximum)
observation written in order from smallest to largest.
Box Plot: A box plot is a graph of the five number summary.
The central box spans the quartiles. A line within the box marks
the median. Lines extending above and below the box mark
the smallest and the largest observations (i.e., the range).
Outlying samples may be additionally plotted outside the
range.
BOXPLOT
Distribution of Age in Month
160
160
140
140
120
120 q1
100 q1
100 min
min
80 median
80 median
60 max
60 max
q3
40 q3
40
20
20
0
0
1
1
CHOOSING A SUMMARY
The five number summary is usually better than the mean and
standard deviation for describing a skewed distribution or a
distribution with extreme outliers. The mean and standard
deviation are reasonable for symmetric distributions that are free of
outliers.
In real life we can’t always expect symmetry of the data. It’s a
common practice to include number of observations (n), mean,
median, standard deviation, and range as common for data
summarization purpose. We can include other summary statistics
like Q1, Q3, Coefficient of variation if it is considered to be
important for describing data.
SHAPE OF DATA

• Shape of data is measured by

• Skewness
• Kurtosis
KURTOSIS

• Measures peakedness of the distribution of data. The

kurtosis of normal distribution is 0.

Let x1 , x2 ,...xn be n observatio ns. Then,

n
n  ( xi  x ) 4
i 1
Kurtosis  2
 3
 n 2 
  ( xi  x ) 
 i 1 
SUMMARY OF THE VARIABLE ‘AGE’ IN THE
GIVEN DATA SET
Mean 90.41666667 Histogram of Age
Standard Error 3.902649518

10
Median 84
Mode 84

8
Standard Deviation 30.22979318

Number of Subjects
Sample Variance 913.8403955

6
Kurtosis -1.183899591

4
Skewness 0.389872725
Range 95

2
Minimum 48
Maximum 143

0
Sum 5425 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Count 60 Age in Month

SUMMARY OF THE VARIABLE ‘AGE’ IN THE GIVEN
DATA SET
Boxplot of Age in Month

140
120
Age(month)

100
80
60
QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES TO
FORECASTING

• If the historical data used involve other time series that are believed
to be related to the time series that we are trying to forecast, the
procedure is called a causal method.
• Quantitative approaches are generally preferred.
TIME SERIES DATA

• Time Series Data is usually plotted on a graph to determine the

various characteristics or components of the time series data.

• There are 4 Major Components: Trend, Cyclical, Seasonal, and

Irregular Components.
COMPONENTS OF A TIME SERIES

• The trend component accounts for the gradual shifting

of the time series over a long period of time.

• Any regular pattern of sequences of values above and

below the trend line is attributable to the cyclical
component of the series.
COMPONENTS OF A TIME SERIES

• The seasonal component of the series accounts for regular

patterns of variability within certain time periods, such as over a
year.
• The irregular component of the series is caused by short-term,
unanticipated and non-recurring factors that affect the values of
the time series. One cannot attempt to predict its impact on the
time series in advance.
FORMS OF FORECAST MOVEMENT

Demand
Demand
Random
movement

Time Time( yrs)

(a) Trend (b) Cycle

Demand
Demand

Time (mths) Time

(c) Seasonal pattern (d) Trend with seasonal pattern
EXCEL INSTRUCTIONS FOR DRAWING A
SCATTER PLOT

1. Enter data in the Excel spreadsheet.

2. Click on Insert on the toolbar and then click on the Chart tab. The Chart
Wizard will appear. In step 1 on select the XY (scatter) chart type and then
click next.
3. In step 2 specify the cells where your data is located in the data range box.
4. In step 3 you can give your chart a title and label your axes. In step 4
specify where you want the chart to be placed.
EXAMPLE: ABC’S DRUGS

During the past ten weeks, sales of cases of Comfort brand headache medicine at
NELSC's Drugs have been as follows:

Week Sales Week Sales

1 110 6 120
2 115 7 130
3 125 8 115
4 120 9 110
5 125 10 130

Plot this data.

PLOT NELSC’S DRUGS EXAMPLE

3 Week (t ) Salest
4 1 110
• Excel Spreadsheet Showing Input 5 2 115
6 3 125
Data. Specify cells A4:B13 as the 7 4 120
Data Range. 8 5 125
9 6 120
10 7 130
11 8 115
12 9 110
13 10 130
14 11
PLOT ABC’S DRUGS EXAMPLE I labeled
Robert’s Drug
Example as
NELSC's Drug Example
The Chart title
135
130
125

Sales 120
115

I labeled 110
Sales as 105
My Value 0 5 10 15
(y)
Week, t I labeled
axis
Week, t as
My Value (x)
axis
TIME SERIES
• Assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future
• Relate the forecast to only one factor - time
• Include
• Naïve
• Moving average
• Exponential smoothing
• Linear trend line
 QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES
• Time Series Method
• Naïve
• Whatever happened recently
will happen again this time
Ft Yt  1
(same time period)
Ft Yt  4 : Quarterly data
• The model is simple and flexible
Ft Yt  12 : Monthly data
• Provides a baseline to measure
other models
• Attempts to capture seasonal
factors at the expense of
ignoring trend.
 NAÏVE FORECAST
ABC GROUP Supply
Forecasting Storage Shed Sales

Actual Naïve Absolute Percent Squared

Period Value Forecast Error Error Error Error
January 10 N/A
February 12 10 2 2 16.67% 4.0
March 16 12 4 4 25.00% 16.0
April 13 16 -3 3 23.08% 9.0
May 17 13 4 4 23.53% 16.0
June 19 17 2 2 10.53% 4.0
July 15 19 -4 4 26.67% 16.0
August 20 15 5 5 25.00% 25.0
September 22 20 2 2 9.09% 4.0
October 19 22 -3 3 15.79% 9.0
November 21 19 2 2 9.52% 4.0
December 19 21 -2 2 10.53% 4.0
0.818 3 17.76% 10.091
BIAS MAD MAPE MSE

Standard Error (Square Root of MSE) = 3.176619

NAÏVE FORECAST GRAPH
NELSC - Naive Forecast

25
20
15 Actual Value
Sheds

10 Naïve Forecast
5
0

Period
SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE

n Di
MAn =
i = 1n
where
n = number of periods in the
moving average
Di = demand in period i
3-MONTH SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE

ORDERS MOVING
AVERAGE 3
MONTH
Jan
PER
120 –
 Di
MONTH i=1
– MA3 =
Feb 90 – 3
103.3
Mar 100 88.3 90 + 110 + 130
= 3
95.0
Apr 75 78.3
78.3 = 110 orders
May 110 85.0 for Nov
105.0
June 50 110.0

July 75
5-MONTH SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE

ORDERS MOVING
AVERAGE
MONTH PER 5
Jan 120 –
MONTH
–
 Di
i=1
Feb 90 – MA5 =
– 5
Mar 100 –
99.0 90 + 110 + 130+75+50
= 5
Apr 75 85.0
82.0
May 110 88.0 = 91 orders
95.0 for Nov
June 50 91.0

July 75
 SMOOTHING EFFECTS
150 –

5-month
125 –

100 –
Orders

75 –

3-month
50 –

Actual
25 –

| | | | | | | | | | |
0–
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov
Month
Potential Problems With Moving Average

 Increasing n smoothes the forecast but makes it less

sensitive to changes

 Do not forecast trends well

 Require extensive historical data

COMMON MEASURES OF ERROR

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

∑ |actual - forecast|
MAD =
n

Mean Squared Error (MSE)

∑ (forecast errors)2
MSE =
n
MAD EXAMPLE

Cumulative
Absolute Absolute
Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast
Qtr Demand Demand Error RSFE Error Error MAD
1 90 100 -10 -10 10 10 10.0
2 95 100 -5 -15 5 15 7.5
3 115 100 +15 0 15 30 10.0
4 100 110 -10 -10 10 40 10.0
5 125 110 +15 +5 15 55 11.0
6 140 110 +30 +35 30 85 14.2
WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE

 Adjusts WMAn =  Wi Di
i=1
moving
average where
method to Wi = the weight for period i,
more closely between 0 and 100
percent
reflect data
fluctuations
 W = 1.00
i
WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE
EXAMPLE
MONTH WEIGHT DATA
August 17% 130
September 33% 110
October 50% 90
3
November Forecast WMA3 =  Wi Di
i=1

= (0.50)(90) + (0.33)(110) + (0.17)(130)

= 103.4 orders
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

 Averaging method
 Weights most recent data more strongly
 Reacts more to recent changes
 Widely used, accurate method
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (CONT.)

Ft +1 = Dt + (1 - )Ft
where:
Ft +1 = forecast for next period
Dt = actual demand for present period
Ft = previously determined forecast
for
present period
= weighting factor, smoothing
constant
EFFECT OF SMOOTHING CONSTANT

0.0  1.0

If = 0.20, then Ft +1 = 0.20Dt + 0.80 Ft

If = 0, then Ft +1 = 0Dt + 1 Ft 0 = Ft

Forecast does not reflect recent data

If = 1, then Ft +1 = 1Dt + 0 Ft =Dt

Forecast based only on most recent data
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (Α=0.30)

PERIOD MONTH F2 = D1 + (1 - )F1

DEMAND
= (0.30)(37) + (0.70)(37)
1 Jan 37 = 37

2 Feb 40 F3 = D2 + (1 - )F2

= (0.30)(40) + (0.70)(37)
3 Mar 41
= 37.9
4 Apr 37
F13 = D12 + (1 - )F12

5 May 45 = (0.30)(54) + (0.70)(50.84)

= 51.79
6 Jun 50

7 Jul 43
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (CONT.)

FORECAST, Ft + 1
PERIOD MONTH DEMAND ( = 0.3) ( = 0.5)
1 Jan 37 – –
2 Feb 40 37.00 37.00
3 Mar 41 37.90 38.50
4 Apr 37 38.83 39.75
5 May 45 38.28 38.37
6 Jun 50 40.29 41.68
7 Jul 43 43.20 45.84
8 Aug 47 43.14 44.42
9 Sep 56 44.30 45.71
10 Oct 52 47.81 50.85
11 Nov 55 49.06 51.42
12 Dec 54 50.84 53.21
13 Jan – 51.79 53.61
 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
(CONT.)
70 –

Actual  = 0.50
60 –

50 –
Orders

40 –
 = 0.30
30 –

20 –

10 –

| | | | | | | | | | | | |
0–
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Month
 LINEAR TREND LINE

xy - nxy
y = a + bx b =
x2 - nx2
where a = y-bx
a = intercept
where
b = slope of the line
n = number of periods
x = time period
y = forecast for x
demand for period x x = = mean of the x values
n
y
y = n = mean of the y values
LEAST SQUARES EXAMPLE
x(PERIOD) y(DEMAND) xy x2
1 73 37 1
2 40 80 4
3 41 123 9
4 37 148 16
5 45 225 25
6 50 300 36
7 43 301 49
8 47 376 64
9 56 504 81
10 52 520 100
11 55 605 121
12 54 648 144
78 557 3867 650
 LEAST SQUARES EXAMPLE
(CONT.)

78
x = = 6.5
12
557
y = = 46.42
12
xy - nxy 3867 - (12)(6.5)(46.42)
b = = =1.72
x - nx
2 2
650 - 12(6.5) 2

a = y - bx
= 46.42 - (1.72)(6.5) = 35.2
 Linear trend line y = 35.2 + 1.72x
Forecast for period 13 y = 35.2 + 1.72(13) = 57.56 units

70 –

60 – Actual

50 –
Demand

40 –
Linear trend line
30 –

20 –

10 – | | | | | | | | | | | | |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Period
0–
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS
 Repetitive increase/ decrease in demand
 Use seasonal factor to adjust forecast

Di
Seasonal factor = Si =
D
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
(CONT.)
DEMAND (1000’S PER QUARTER)
YEAR 1 2 3 4 Total
2002 12.6 8.6 6.3 17.5 45.0
2003 14.1 10.3 7.5 18.2 50.1
2004 15.3 10.6 8.1 19.6 53.6
Total 42.0 29.5 21.9 55.3 148.7

D1 42.0 D3 21.9
S1 = = = 0.28 S3 = = = 0.15
D 148.7 D 148.7
D2 29.5 D4
55.3
S2 = = = 0.20 S4 = = = 0.37
D 148.7 D 148.7
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT (CONT.)

For 2005

y = 40.97 + 4.30x = 40.97 + 4.30(4) = 58.17

SF1 = (S1) (F5) = (0.28)(58.17) = 16.28

SF2 = (S2) (F5) = (0.20)(58.17) = 11.63
SF3 = (S3) (F5) = (0.15)(58.17) = 8.73
SF4 = (S4) (F5) = (0.37)(58.17) = 21.53
MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD)

S Dt - Ft 
MAD = n
where
t = period number
Dt = demand in period t
Ft = forecast for period t
n = total number of periods
 = absolute value
 MAD Example
PERIOD DEMAND, Dt Ft ( =0.3) (Dt - Ft) |Dt - Ft|
1 37 37.00 – –
2 40 37.00 3.00 3.00
3 41 37.90 3.10 3.10
4 37 38.83 -1.83 1.83
5 45 38.28 6.72 6.72 S Dt - Ft 
6 50 40.29 9.69 9.69 MAD =
7 43 43.20 -0.20 0.20
n
8 47 43.14 3.86 3.86 53.39
9 56 44.30 11.70 11.70 = 11
10 52 47.81 4.19 4.19
11 55 49.06 5.94 5.94
12 54 50.84 3.15 3.15
= 4.85
557 49.31 53.39