Continuous

Distributions

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Continuous Probability Distributions
• A continuous variable is a variable that can
assume any value on a continuum (can assume
an uncountable number of values):
– thickness of an item.
– time required to complete a task.
– temperature of a solution.
– height, in inches.
• These can potentially take on any value
depending only on the ability to precisely and
accurately measure.
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Continuous Probability Distributions
Vary by Shape

• Symmetrical • Symmetrical • Right skewed

• Bell-shaped • Also known as Rectangular • Mean > Median
• Ranges from Distribution • Ranges from zero
negative to • Every value between the to positive infinity
positive infinity smallest & largest is equally
likely

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The Uniform Distribution
• The uniform distribution is a probability
distribution that has equal probabilities for
all possible outcomes of the random
variable.
• Also called a rectangular distribution.

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The Uniform Distribution
The Continuous Uniform Distribution:

 1
b  a if a  X b

f ( X ) 
 0 otherwise


where

f ( X ) = value of the density function at any X value

a = minimum value of X
b = maximum value of X

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Properties of the Uniform Distribution
• The mean of a uniform distribution is:

a b

2

• The standard deviation is:

(b  a ) 2

12

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Uniform Distribution Example 1
Example: Uniform probability distribution over the
range 2  X 6 :
1
f X   0.25 for 2  X 6
6 2
a b 2 6
  4
2 2
(b  a ) 2

12
(6  2) 2
 1.1547
12
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Uniform Distribution Example 2
Example: Using the uniform probability distribution
to find P 3  X 5  :

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Problem

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Solution

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Montecarlo Approximation of Pi

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Montecarlo Approximation of Pi

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The Exponential Distribution
• Often used to model the length of time between
two occurrences of an event (the time between
arrivals).
– Examples:
▪ Time between trucks arriving at an unloading dock.
▪ Time between transactions at an ATM Machine.
▪ Time between phone calls to the main operator.

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The Exponential Distribution
• Defined by a single parameter, its mean 
(lambda).
• Exponential Probability Density Function:

• The probability that an arrival time is less than

some specified time x is given by

e = mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828

where
 = the population mean number of arrivals per unit
0 X 
X = any value of the continuous variable where
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The Mean & Standard Deviation of the
Exponential Distribution
• The mean   of the exponential distribution is
given by:
1


• The standard deviation   of the exponential
distribution is given by:
1



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Exponential Distribution Example
Customers arrive at the service counter at the rate of 20 per
hour. What is the probability that the arrival time between
consecutive customers is less than six minutes?
• The mean number of arrivals per hour is 20, so  20.
• Six minutes is 0.10 hours.
P arrival time  0.1 1  e   X 1  e    0.8647.
 20 0.10
•
• So there is a 86.47% chance that the arrival time between
successive customers is less than six minutes.

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The Exponential Distribution in Excel
Example: Customers arrive at the service counter at the rate
of 20 per hour. What is the probability that the arrival time
between consecutive customers is less than six minutes?

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Problem

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Solution

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The Normal Distribution
• Bell Shaped.
• Symmetrical. .
• Mean, Median and Mode are
Equal.
Location is determined by the
mean, μ.
Spread is determined by the
standard deviation, σ.
The random variable has an
infinite theoretical range:   to  .
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The Normal Distribution Density
Function
• The formula for the normal probability density function is:
2
1 ( X  ) 
1  
2  

f (X )  e
2
Where
e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828
π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
μ = the population mean
σ = the population standard deviation
x = any value of the continuous variable
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The Normal Distribution Shape

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The Standardized Normal
• Any normal distribution (with any mean and
standard deviation combination) can be
transformed into the standardized normal
distribution (Z).
• To compute normal probabilities need to transform
X units into Z units.
• The standardized normal distribution (Z) has a
mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1.

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By Varying the Parameters μ and σ, We
Obtain Different Normal Distributions

A and B have the same mean but different standard deviations.

B and C have different means and different standard deviations.
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Translation to the Standardized
Normal Distribution
• Translate from X to the standardized normal (the
“Z” distribution) by subtracting the mean of X and
dividing by its standard deviation:
X 
Z

The Z distribution always has mean = 0 and
standard deviation = 1.

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The Standardized Normal Probability
Density Function
• The formula for the standardized normal
probability density function is:
1
1   Z2
f (Z )  e  2

2

Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828

π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159

Z = any value of the standardized normal distribution

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The Standardized Normal Distribution
• Also known as the “Z” distribution.
• Mean is 0.
• Standard Deviation is 1.

Values above the mean have positive Z-values.

Values below the mean have negative Z-values.
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Example
• If X is distributed normally with mean of $100 and
standard deviation of $50, the Z value for X =
$200 is:

X  $200  $100
Z  2.0
 $50
• This says that X = $200 is two standard deviations
(2 increments of $50 units) above the mean of
$100.

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Comparing X and Z units

Note that the shape of the distribution is the same, only the
scale has changed. We can express the problem in the
original units (X in dollars) or in standardized units (Z).
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Finding Normal Probabilities
Probability is measured by the area under the curve.

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Probability as Area Under the Curve
The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is
symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below.

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The Standardized Normal Table (1 of 2)
The Cumulative Standardized Normal table in the
textbook (Appendix table E.2) gives the probability
less than a desired value of Z (i.e., from negative
infinity to Z).

Example:
P Z  2.00  0.9772

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The Standardized Normal Table

P  Z  2.00  0.9772
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General Procedure for Finding
Normal Probabilities
To find P a  X  b  when X is distributed
normally:
• Draw the normal curve for the problem in terms of
X.
• Translate X-values to Z-values.
• Use the Standardized Normal Table.

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Finding Normal Probabilities
• Let X represent the time it takes (in seconds) to
download an image file from the internet.
• Suppose X is normal with a mean of 18.0 seconds
and a standard deviation of 5.0 seconds.
Find P  X  18.6 .

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Finding Normal Probabilities
• Let X represent the time it takes, in seconds to download an image file from
the internet.
• Suppose X is normal with a mean of 18.0 seconds and a standard deviation of
5.0 seconds. Find P  X  18.6  :
X  18.6  18.0
Z  0.12
 5.0

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Solution: Finding P of Start Expression Z
Is Less Than 0.12 End Expression
Standardized Normal
Probability Table (Portion)

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Finding Normal Upper Tail
Probabilities
• Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and
standard deviation 5.0.
• Now Find P  X  18.6 .

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Finding Normal Upper Tail
Probabilities
• Now Find P  X  18.6 .
P  X  18.6  P Z  0.12  1.0  P Z 0.12 
1.0  0.5478  0.4522

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Finding a Normal Probability Between
Two Values
• Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and
standard deviation 5.0. Find P 18  X  18.6 .
Calculate Z-values:

X  18  18
Z  0
 5

X  18.6  18
Z  0.12
 5

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Solution
Standardized Normal P 18  X  18.6 
Probability Table (Portion) P (0  Z  0.12)
P ( Z  0.12) – P Z 0 
0.5478  0.5000  0.0478

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Probabilities in the Lower Tail
• Suppose X is normal with mean 18.0 and
standard deviation 5.0.
• Now Find P 17.4  X  18 .

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Probabilities in the Lower Tail
Now Find P 17.4  X  18  :
P 17.4  X  18 
P  0.12  Z  0 
P Z  0  – P Z  0.12 
0.5000  0.4522  0.0478

The Normal distribution is

symmetric, so this probability
is the same as P 0  Z  0.12 .
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Empirical Rule
What can we say about the distribution of values
around the mean? For any normal distribution:

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The Empirical Rule
•  2 covers about 95.44% of X’s.
•  3 covers about 99.73% of X’s.

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Three-Sigma Limits

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Control Chart

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Given a Normal Probability Find the x
Value
• Steps to find the X value for a known
probability:
1. Find the Z value for the known probability.
2. Convert to X units using the formula:

X   Z 

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Finding the x Value for a Known
Probability
Example:
• Let X represent the time it
takes (in seconds) to
download an image file from
the internet.
• Suppose X is normal with
mean 18.0 and standard
deviation 5.0.
• Find x such that 20% of
download times are less
than x.

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Find the Z Value for 20% in the Lower
Tail
1. Find the Z value for the known probability
Standardized Normal • 20% area in the lower
Probability Table (Portion) tail is consistent with a
Z value of −0.84.

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Finding the X value
2. Convert to X units using the formula:

X   Z 
18.0  ( 0.84)5.0
13.8
So 20% of the values from a distribution with mean 18.0 and
standard deviation 5.0 are less than 13.80.

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Using Excel to Find Normal
Probabilities
X is normal with a mean of 7 and a standard deviation of 2 find:
• P X  7 • P 5  X  9 
• P  X  9 • X L where P( X  X L ) 10%
• P  X  7 or X  9  • X L & X U where P ( X L  X  X U ) 95%

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Evaluating Normality
• Not all continuous distributions are normal.
• It is important to evaluate how well the data set is
approximated by a normal distribution.
• Normally distributed data should approximate the
theoretical normal distribution:
– The normal distribution is bell shaped (symmetrical)
where the mean is equal to the median.
– The empirical rule applies to the normal distribution.
– The interquartile range of a normal distribution is 1.33
standard deviations.
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Problem

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Solution

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Problem

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Normal Approximation to the
Binomial Distribution
• The binomial distribution is a discrete distribution,
but the normal is continuous.
• To use the normal to approximate the binomial,
accuracy is improved if you use a correction for
continuity adjustment.
• Example:
– X is discrete in a binomial distribution, so P  X 4 
can be approximated with a continuous normal distribution
by finding
P 3.5  X  4.5 .
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Normal Approximation to the
Binomial Distribution
• The closer  is to 0.5, the better the normal
approximation to the binomial.
• The larger the sample size n, the better the
normal approximation to the binomial.
• General rule:
– The normal distribution can be used to approximate the
binomial distribution if
n 5
and
n 1    5.
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Normal Approximation to the
Binomial Distribution
• The mean and standard deviation of the binomial
distribution are:
 n
  n 1   
• Transform binomial to normal using the formula:
X  X  n
Z 
 n 1   

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Using the Normal Approximation to
the Binomial Distribution
• If n = 1000 and  0.2, what is P  X 180 ?
• Approximate P  X 180  using a continuity correction
adjustment:
P  X 180.5 .
• Transform to standardized normal:
X  n 180.5  1000 0.2 
Z   1.54
n 1    1000 0.2 1  0.2 
• So P Z  1.54 0.0618

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Central Limit Theorem

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Central Limit Theorem

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Central Limit Theorem Example

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Problem 35

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Solution

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Problem 34

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Solution

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