Binomial Distribution

The binomial distribution is a

discrete distribution.
 Binomial Experiment

 A binomial experiment has the following properties:

 experiment consists of n identical and independent trials
 each trial results in one of two outcomes: success or failure
 P(success) = p

 P(failure) = q = 1 - p for all trials

 The random variable of interest, X, is the number of successes

in the n trials.
 X has a binomial distribution with parameters n and p
 EXAMPLES

 A coin is flipped 10 times. Success = head.

 X = n= p=

 Twelve pregnant women selected at random, take a home

pregnancy test. Success = test says pregnant.
 X = n= p=?

 Random guessing on a multiple choice exam. 25 questions.

4 answers per question. Success = right answer.
 X = n= p=
 Examples when assumptions do not hold

 Basketball player shoots ten free throws

 Feedback affects independence and constant p

 Barrel contains 3 red apples and 4 green apples;

select 4 apples without replacement; X = # of red
apples.
 Without replacement implies dependence
 What is P(x) for binomial?

n! x n x
P( x)  pq
x!(n  x)!
n = number of trials (specified in advance) or sample size,
p = probability of success,
q = (1 – p), probability of failure,
x = discrete binomial random variable,
and r(n) = number of successes in n trials.
 Mean and Standard Deviation

 The mean (expected value) of a binomial

random variable is  np

 The standard deviation of a binomial

  isnpq
random variable
 Example

 Random Guessing; n = 100 questions.

 Probability of correct guess; p = 1/4
 Probability of wrong guess; q = 3/4
1
 Expected Value =  np 100   25
 On average, you will get 25 right.  4
 Standard Deviation =
 1  3
  npq  np 1  p   100     4.33
 4 4
 Example

 Cancer Treatment; n = 20 patients

 Probability of successful treatments; p = 0.7
 Probability of no success; q = ?

 Calculate the mean and standard deviation.

 A brokerage survey reports that 30 per cent of individual
investors have used a discount broker, that is, one which does
not charge the full commission. In a random sample of 9
individuals, what is the probability that 1. exactly two of the
sampled individuals have used a discount broker, 2. not more
than three have used a discount broker, 3. at least three of them
have used a discount broker.
 Mr Gupta applies for a personal loan of Rs. 1,50,000 from a
nationalised bank to repair his house. The loan offer informed
him that over the years, bank has received about 2920 loan
applications per year and that the probability of approval was,
on average, above 0.85. (a) Mr Gupta wants to know the
average and standard deviation of the number of loans
approved per year. (b) Suppose bank actually received 2654
loan applications per year with an approval probability of 0.82.
What are the mean and standard deviation now?
 The incidence of occupational disease in an
industry is such that the workers have 20 per
cent chance of suffering from it. What is the
probability that out of 6 workers 4 or more
will come in contact of the disease?
 Poisson Probability Distribution
The random variable X is said to follow the Poisson probability
distribution if it has the probability function:

e  x
P( x)  , for x 0, 1,2,...
where x!
• P(x) = the probability of x successes over a given period of
time or space, given 
•  = the expected number of successes per time or space
unit;  > 0
• e = 2.71828 (the base for natural logarithms)
• The mean and variance of the Poisson probability distribution are:

 x E ( X )  and  x2 E[( X   ) 2 ] 
 A new automated production process has had an average of 1.5 breakdowns per
day. Because of the cost associated with a breakdown, management is concerned
about the possibility of having three or more breakdowns during a day. Assume
that breakdowns occur randomly, that the probability of a breakdown is the
same for any two time intervals of equal length, and that breakdowns in one
period are independent of breakdowns in other periods. What is the probability
of having three or more breakdowns
 : Suppose a life insurance company insures the lives of 5000 persons aged 42. If
studies show the probability that any 42-year old person will die in a given year
to be 0.001, find the probability that the company will have to pay at least two
claims during a given year
 A supposed coffee connoisseur claims that he can distinguish between a
cup of instant coffee and a cup of percolator coffee 75 per cent of the
time. It is agreed that his claim will be accepted if he correctly identifies
at least 5 out of 6 cups. Find (a) his chance of having the claim accepted
if he is in fact only guessing and (b) his chance of having the claim
rejected when he does have the ability he claims.
 One-fifth per cent of the blades produced by
a blade manufacturing factory turn out to be
defective. The blades are supplied in packets
of 10. Use Poisson distribution to calculate
the approximate number of packets
containing no defective, one defective, and
two defective blades respectively in a
consignment of 1,00,000 packets.
 Normal Probability Distribution
Function
A frequency distribution of values of random variable observed in
nature which follows this pattern is approximately bell shaped. A
special case of distribution of measurements is called a normal curve
(or distribution).

The f (x) values represent the relative frequencies (height of the curve) within which values of
random variable x occur. The distribution is symmetric about its mean µ that locates at the
centre. Since the total area under the normal probability distribution is equal to 1, the symmetry
implies that the area on either side of µ is 50 per cent or 0.5. The shape of the distribution is
determined by µ and σ values.
 Characteristics of the Normal
Probability Distribution
 There is a family of normal distributions. Each normal distribution may have a different
mean µ or standard deviation σ. A unique normal distribution may be defined by assigning
specific values to the mean µ and standard deviation σ in the normal probability density
function. Large value of σ reduce the height of the curve and increase the spread; small
values of σ increase the height of the curve and reduce the spread. When the normal
random variable x is expressed in terms of standard units, that is, z = (x – µ)/r, the normal
probability density function is expressed as
 Standard Normal Probability
Distribution: T
The standardized normal random variable, z (also called z–statistic,
z– score or normal variate), is defined as

A z–score measures the

number of standard deviations
that a value of the random
variable x fall from the mean.

Any normal probability distribution with a

set of µ and σ value with random variable
can be converted into a distribution called
standard normal probability distribution z,
as shown in Fig. 6.4, with mean µz = 0 and
standard deviation σz = 1 with the help of
the formula.
 1000 light bulbs with a mean life of 120 days are installed in a
new factory and their length of life is normally distributed with
standard deviation of 20 days. (a) How many bulbs will expire
in less than 90 days? (b) If it is decided to replace all the bulbs
together, what interval should be allowed between
replacements if not more than 10% should expire before
replacement?
 The lifetimes of certain kinds of electronic devices have
a mean of 300 hours and standard deviation of 25 hours.
Assuming that the distribution of these lifetimes, which
are measured to the nearest hour, can be approximated
closely with a normal curve (a) Find the probability that
any one of these electronic devices will have a lifetime
of more than 350 hours. (b) What percentage will have
lifetimes of 300 hours or less? (c) What percentage will
have lifetimes from 220 or 260 hours?
 In a certain examination, the percentage of passes and distinctions were
46 and 9 respectively. Estimate the average marks obtained by the
candidates, the minimum pass and distinction marks being 40 and 75
respectively (assume the distribution of marks to be normal). Also
determine what would have been the minimum qualifying marks for
admission to a re-examination of the failed candidates, had it been
desired that the best 25 per cent of them should be given another
opportunity of being examined.
 In a normal distribution, 31 per cent of the items are under 45 and 8 per
cent are over 64. Find the mean and standard deviation of the
distribution.