07 GB DMAIC Analyze Part 1
07 GB DMAIC Analyze Part 1
ANALYZE
Part 1
Define
Measure
Analyze
Improve
Control
i 1
GB DMAIC - Analyze Part 1 Version 2.0 5/2002 7.1
g GE Global Research
Objectives of Analyze
4
GB DMAIC - Analyze Part 1 Version 2.0 5/2002 7.4
g GE Global Research
Analyze Phase
x
Z
USL
USL
Y = f (X1 . . . X n )
Excellent
Poor Process Process
Capability Capability
Very High Very Low
Probability Very High Very Low
Probability
of Defects Probability of Defects Probability
of Defects of Defects
100000
10000
1000
Your
YourProcess
Process
100
Performance
Performance
10
Objective
Objective
1
22 33 44 55 66 77
p(x) Benchmark
Entitlement
Baseline
Defects
Benchmark:
Benchmark: World-Class
World-Classperformance
performance
Entitlement:
Entitlement: The
Thelevel
levelofofperformance
performanceaabusiness
business
should
shouldbebeable
ableto
toachieve
achieve
given
giventhe
the investments
investmentsalready
alreadymade
made
Baseline:
Baseline:The
Thecurrent
currentlevel
levelofof
performance
performance
Benchmarking
BenchmarkingSets
Setsthe
theUltimate
UltimateGoal,
Goal,While
WhileBaselining
Baselining
Takes
TakesCurrent
CurrentMeasurements
MeasurementstotoMonitor
MonitoraaProcess
Process
Y= f (X)
Y X1 . . . Xn
Dependent Independent
Output Input-
Effect Process
Symptom
Cause
Monitor
Problem
Control
Historically the Y, … with Six Sigma the Xs
Process Capability
Continuous Data
• Process Centering
Discrete Data
• Discrete Distributions
• Yield
Process Capability
Continuous Data
• Process Centering
Discrete Data
• Discrete Distributions
• Yield
Calculating Z
x
Z
Calculating Capability
x = 8.5
s = 0.1
xx
Probability
Probability Probability
Probability
ofofaadefect
defect LSL
LSL USL
USL ofofaadefect
defect
less than
less than greater
ZUSL greater
LSL
LSL ZLSL than
thanUSL
USL
Standard Deviations -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Units of Measure 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9
Z-Bench
P(d)LSL P(d)USL
_
LSL T x USL
x LSL USL x
Z LSL Z USL
S S
Z B en ch fro m Z tab le
Probability of a Defect
Let us suppose that we
calculate the standard normal
deviate for a given
performance limit and discover
that “Sigma” = 1.91. The
question becomes, “What
Probability
portion of the total area under Of A Defect
the normal curve lies beyond a Example = .028066
“Sigma” value of 1.91?”
Answering this question will Specification
give us the probability of
producing a defect.
Limit
“Sigma”
Units of Measure
of the 2.46
2.51
2.56
.006946800
.006036485
.005233515
3.97
4.02
4.07
.000036057
.000029215
.000023617
5.48
5.53
5.58
.000000024
.000000018
.000000014
z Single-Tail Z Table
(Values of Z from 0.00 to 4.99)
Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.00 5.00e-001 4.96e-001 4.92e-001 4.88e-001 4.84e-001 4.80e-001 4.76e-001 4.72e-001 4.68e-001 4.64e-001
0.10 4.60e-001 4.56e-001 4.52e-001 4.48e-001 4.44e-001 4.40e-001 4.36e-001 4.33e-001 4.29e-001 4.25e-001
0.20 4.21e-001 4.17e-001 4.13e-001 4.09e-001 4.05e-001 4.01e-001 3.97e-001 3.94e-001 3.90e-001 3.86e-001
0.30 3.82e-001 3.78e-001 3.74e-001 3.71e-001 3.67e-001 3.63e-001 3.59e-001 3.56e-001 3.52e-001 3.48e-001
0.40 3.45e-001 3.41e-001 3.37e-001 3.34e-001 3.30e-001 3.26e-001 3.23e-001 3.19e-001 3.16e-001 3.12e-001
0.50 3.09e-001 3.05e-001 3.02e-001 2.98e-001 2.95e-001 2.91e-001 2.88e-001 2.84e-001 2.81e-001 2.78e-001
0.60 2.74e-001 2.71e-001 2.68e-001 2.64e-001 2.61e-001 2.58e-001 2.55e-001 2.51e-001 2.48e-001 2.45e-001
0.70 2.42e-001 2.39e-001 2.36e-001 2.33e-001 2.30e-001 2.27e-001 2.24e-001 2.21e-001 2.18e-001 2.15e-001
0.80 2.12e-001 2.09e-001 2.06e-001 2.03e-001 2.00e-001 1.98e-001 1.95e-001 1.92e-001 1.89e-001 1.87e-001
0.90 1.84e-001 1.81e-001 1.79e-001 1.76e-001 1.74e-001 1.71e-001 1.69e-001 1.66e-001 1.64e-001 1.61e-001
1.00 1.59e-001 1.56e-001 1.54e-001 1.52e-001 1.49e-001 1.47e-001 1.45e-001 1.42e-001 1.40e-001 1.38e-001
1.10 1.36e-001 1.33e-001 1.31e-001 1.29e-001 1.27e-001 1.25e-001 1.23e-001 1.21e-001 1.19e-001 1.17e-001
1.20 1.15e-001 1.13e-001 1.11e-001 1.09e-001 1.07e-001 1.06e-001 1.04e-001 1.02e-001 1.00e-001 9.85e-002
1.30 9.68e-002 9.51e-002 9.34e-002 9.18e-002 9.01e-002 8.85e-002 8.69e-002 8.53e-002 8.38e-002 8.23e-002
1.40 8.08e-002 7.93e-002 7.78e-002 7.64e-002 7.49e-002 7.35e-002 7.21e-002 7.08e-002 6.94e-002 6.81e-002
1.50 6.68e-002 6.55e-002 6.43e-002 6.30e-002 6.18e-002 6.06e-002 5.94e-002 5.82e-002 5.71e-002 5.59e-002
1.60 5.48e-002 5.37e-002 5.26e-002 5.16e-002 5.05e-002 4.95e-002 4.85e-002 4.75e-002 4.65e-002 4.55e-002
1.70 4.46e-002 4.36e-002 4.27e-002 4.18e-002 4.09e-002 4.01e-002 3.92e-002 3.84e-002 3.75e-002 3.67e-002
1.80 3.59e-002 3.51e-002 3.44e-002 3.36e-002 3.29e-002 3.22e-002 3.14e-002 3.07e-002 3.01e-002 2.94e-002
1.90 2.87e-002 2.81e-002 2.74e-002 2.68e-002 2.62e-002 2.56e-002 2.50e-002 2.44e-002 2.39e-002 2.33e-002
2.00 2.28e-002 2.22e-002 2.17e-002 2.12e-002 2.07e-002 2.02e-002 1.97e-002 1.92e-002 1.88e-002 1.83e-002
2.10 1.79e-002 1.74e-002 1.70e-002 1.66e-002 1.62e-002 1.58e-002 1.54e-002 1.50e-002 1.46e-002 1.43e-002
2.20 1.39e-002 1.36e-002 1.32e-002 1.29e-002 1.25e-002 1.22e-002 1.19e-002 1.16e-002 1.13e-002 1.10e-002
2.30 1.07e-002 1.04e-002 1.02e-002 9.90e-003 9.64e-003 9.39e-003 9.14e-003 8.89e-003 8.66e-003 8.42e-003
2.40 8.20e-003 7.98e-003 7.76e-003 7.55e-003 7.34e-003 7.14e-003 6.95e-003 6.76e-003 6.57e-003 6.39e-003
2.50 6.21e-003 6.04e-003 5.87e-003 5.70e-003 5.54e-003 5.39e-003 5.23e-003 5.08e-003 4.94e-003 4.80e-003
2.60 4.66e-003 4.53e-003 4.40e-003 4.27e-003 4.15e-003 4.02e-003 3.91e-003 3.79e-003 3.68e-003 3.57e-003
2.70 3.47e-003 3.36e-003 3.26e-003 3.17e-003 3.07e-003 2.98e-003 2.89e-003 2.80e-003 2.72e-003 2.64e-003
2.80 2.56e-003 2.48e-003 2.40e-003 2.33e-003 2.26e-003 2.19e-003 2.12e-003 2.05e-003 1.99e-003 1.93e-003
2.90 1.87e-003 1.81e-003 1.75e-003 1.69e-003 1.64e-003 1.59e-003 1.54e-003 1.49e-003 1.44e-003 1.39e-003
3.00 1.35e-003 1.31e-003 1.26e-003 1.22e-003 1.18e-003 1.14e-003 1.11e-003 1.07e-003 1.04e-003 1.00e-003
3.10 9.68e-004 9.35e-004 9.04e-004 8.74e-004 8.45e-004 8.16e-004 7.89e-004 7.62e-004 7.36e-004 7.11e-004
3.20 6.87e-004 6.64e-004 6.41e-004 6.19e-004 5.98e-004 5.77e-004 5.57e-004 5.38e-004 5.19e-004 5.01e-004
3.30 4.83e-004 4.66e-004 4.50e-004 4.34e-004 4.19e-004 4.04e-004 3.90e-004 3.76e-004 3.62e-004 3.49e-004
3.40 3.37e-004 3.25e-004 3.13e-004 3.02e-004 2.91e-004 2.80e-004 2.70e-004 2.60e-004 2.51e-004 2.42e-004
3.50 2.33e-004 2.24e-004 2.16e-004 2.08e-004 2.00e-004 1.93e-004 1.85e-004 1.78e-004 1.72e-004 1.65e-004
3.60 1.59e-004 1.53e-004 1.47e-004 1.42e-004 1.36e-004 1.31e-004 1.26e-004 1.21e-004 1.17e-004 1.12e-004
3.70 1.08e-004 1.04e-004 9.96e-005 9.57e-005 9.20e-005 8.84e-005 8.50e-005 8.16e-005 7.84e-005 7.53e-005
3.80 7.23e-005 6.95e-005 6.67e-005 6.41e-005 6.15e-005 5.91e-005 5.67e-005 5.44e-005 5.22e-005 5.01e-005
3.90 4.81e-005 4.61e-005 4.43e-005 4.25e-005 4.07e-005 3.91e-005 3.75e-005 3.59e-005 3.45e-005 3.30e-005
4.00 3.17e-005 3.04e-005 2.91e-005 2.79e-005 2.67e-005 2.56e-005 2.45e-005 2.35e-005 2.25e-005 2.16e-005
4.10 2.07e-005 1.98e-005 1.89e-005 1.81e-005 1.74e-005 1.66e-005 1.59e-005 1.52e-005 1.46e-005 1.39e-005
4.20 1.33e-005 1.28e-005 1.22e-005 1.17e-005 1.12e-005 1.07e-005 1.02e-005 9.77e-006 9.34e-006 8.93e-006
4.30 8.54e-006 8.16e-006 7.80e-006 7.46e-006 7.12e-006 6.81e-006 6.50e-006 6.21e-006 5.93e-006 5.67e-006
4.40 5.41e-006 5.17e-006 4.94e-006 4.71e-006 4.50e-006 4.29e-006 4.10e-006 3.91e-006 3.73e-006 3.56e-006
4.50 3.40e-006 3.24e-006 3.09e-006 2.95e-006 2.81e-006 2.68e-006 2.56e-006 2.44e-006 2.32e-006 2.22e-006
4.60 2.11e-006 2.01e-006 1.92e-006 1.83e-006 1.74e-006 1.66e-006 1.58e-006 1.51e-006 1.43e-006 1.37e-006
4.70 1.30e-006 1.24e-006 1.18e-006 1.12e-006 1.07e-006 1.02e-006 9.68e-007 9.21e-007 8.76e-007 8.34e-007
4.80 7.93e-007 7.55e-007 7.18e-007 6.83e-007 6.49e-007 6.17e-007 5.87e-007 5.58e-007 5.30e-007 5.04e-007
4.90 4.79e-007 4.55e-007 4.33e-007 4.11e-007 3.91e-007 3.71e-007 3.52e-007 3.35e-007 3.18e-007 3.02e-007
z
Single-Tail Z Table
(Values of Z from 5.00 to 9.99)
Z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
5.00 2.87e-007 2.72e-007 2.58e-007 2.45e-007 2.33e-007 2.21e-007 2.10e-007 1.99e-007 1.89e-007 1.79e-007
5.10 1.70e-007 1.61e-007 1.53e-007 1.45e-007 1.37e-007 1.30e-007 1.23e-007 1.17e-007 1.11e-007 1.05e-007
5.20 9.96e-008 9.44e-008 8.95e-008 8.48e-008 8.03e-008 7.60e-008 7.20e-008 6.82e-008 6.46e-008 6.12e-008
5.30 5.79e-008 5.48e-008 5.19e-008 4.91e-008 4.65e-008 4.40e-008 4.16e-008 3.94e-008 3.72e-008 3.52e-008
5.40 3.33e-008 3.15e-008 2.98e-008 2.82e-008 2.66e-008 2.52e-008 2.38e-008 2.25e-008 2.13e-008 2.01e-008
5.50 1.90e-008 1.79e-008 1.69e-008 1.60e-008 1.51e-008 1.43e-008 1.35e-008 1.27e-008 1.20e-008 1.14e-008
5.60 1.07e-008 1.01e-008 9.55e-009 9.01e-009 8.50e-009 8.02e-009 7.57e-009 7.14e-009 6.73e-009 6.35e-009
5.70 5.99e-009 5.65e-009 5.33e-009 5.02e-009 4.73e-009 4.46e-009 4.21e-009 3.96e-009 3.74e-009 3.52e-009
5.80 3.32e-009 3.12e-009 2.94e-009 2.77e-009 2.61e-009 2.46e-009 2.31e-009 2.18e-009 2.05e-009 1.93e-009
5.90 1.82e-009 1.71e-009 1.61e-009 1.51e-009 1.43e-009 1.34e-009 1.26e-009 1.19e-009 1.12e-009 1.05e-009
6.00 9.87e-010 9.28e-010 8.72e-010 8.20e-010 7.71e-010 7.24e-010 6.81e-010 6.40e-010 6.01e-010 5.65e-010
6.10 5.30e-010 4.98e-010 4.68e-010 4.39e-010 4.13e-010 3.87e-010 3.64e-010 3.41e-010 3.21e-010 3.01e-010
6.20 2.82e-010 2.65e-010 2.49e-010 2.33e-010 2.19e-010 2.05e-010 1.92e-010 1.81e-010 1.69e-010 1.59e-010
6.30 1.49e-010 1.40e-010 1.31e-010 1.23e-010 1.15e-010 1.08e-010 1.01e-010 9.45e-011 8.85e-011 8.29e-011
6.40 7.77e-011 7.28e-011 6.81e-011 6.38e-011 5.97e-011 5.59e-011 5.24e-011 4.90e-011 4.59e-011 4.29e-011
6.50 4.02e-011 3.76e-011 3.52e-011 3.29e-011 3.08e-011 2.88e-011 2.69e-011 2.52e-011 2.35e-011 2.20e-011
6.60 2.06e-011 1.92e-011 1.80e-011 1.68e-011 1.57e-011 1.47e-011 1.37e-011 1.28e-011 1.19e-011 1.12e-011
6.70 1.04e-011 9.73e-012 9.09e-012 8.48e-012 7.92e-012 7.39e-012 6.90e-012 6.44e-012 6.01e-012 5.61e-012
6.80 5.23e-012 4.88e-012 4.55e-012 4.25e-012 3.96e-012 3.69e-012 3.44e-012 3.21e-012 2.99e-012 2.79e-012
6.90 2.60e-012 2.42e-012 2.26e-012 2.10e-012 1.96e-012 1.83e-012 1.70e-012 1.58e-012 1.48e-012 1.37e-012
7.00 1.28e-012 1.19e-012 1.11e-012 1.03e-012 9.61e-013 8.95e-013 8.33e-013 7.75e-013 7.21e-013 6.71e-013
7.10 6.24e-013 5.80e-013 5.40e-013 5.02e-013 4.67e-013 4.34e-013 4.03e-013 3.75e-013 3.49e-013 3.24e-013
7.20 3.01e-013 2.80e-013 2.60e-013 2.41e-013 2.24e-013 2.08e-013 1.94e-013 1.80e-013 1.67e-013 1.55e-013
7.30 1.44e-013 1.34e-013 1.24e-013 1.15e-013 1.07e-013 9.91e-014 9.20e-014 8.53e-014 7.91e-014 7.34e-014
7.40 6.81e-014 6.31e-014 5.86e-014 5.43e-014 5.03e-014 4.67e-014 4.33e-014 4.01e-014 3.72e-014 3.44e-014
7.50 3.19e-014 2.96e-014 2.74e-014 2.54e-014 2.35e-014 2.18e-014 2.02e-014 1.87e-014 1.73e-014 1.60e-014
7.60 1.48e-014 1.37e-014 1.27e-014 1.17e-014 1.09e-014 1.00e-014 9.30e-015 8.60e-015 7.95e-015 7.36e-015
7.70 6.80e-015 6.29e-015 5.82e-015 5.38e-015 4.97e-015 4.59e-015 4.25e-015 3.92e-015 3.63e-015 3.35e-015
7.80 3.10e-015 2.86e-015 2.64e-015 2.44e-015 2.25e-015 2.08e-015 1.92e-015 1.77e-015 1.64e-015 1.51e-015
7.90 1.39e-015 1.29e-015 1.19e-015 1.10e-015 1.01e-015 9.33e-016 8.60e-016 7.93e-016 7.32e-016 6.75e-016
8.00 6.22e-016 5.74e-016 5.29e-016 4.87e-016 4.49e-016 4.14e-016 3.81e-016 3.51e-016 3.24e-016 2.98e-016
8.10 2.75e-016 2.53e-016 2.33e-016 2.15e-016 1.98e-016 1.82e-016 1.68e-016 1.54e-016 1.42e-016 1.31e-016
8.20 1.20e-016 1.11e-016 1.02e-016 9.36e-017 8.61e-017 7.92e-017 7.28e-017 6.70e-017 6.16e-017 5.66e-017
8.30 5.21e-017 4.79e-017 4.40e-017 4.04e-017 3.71e-017 3.41e-017 3.14e-017 2.88e-017 2.65e-017 2.43e-017
8.40 2.23e-017 2.05e-017 1.88e-017 1.73e-017 1.59e-017 1.46e-017 1.34e-017 1.23e-017 1.13e-017 1.03e-017
8.50 9.48e-018 8.70e-018 7.98e-018 7.32e-018 6.71e-018 6.15e-018 5.64e-018 5.17e-018 4.74e-018 4.35e-018
8.60 3.99e-018 3.65e-018 3.35e-018 3.07e-018 2.81e-018 2.57e-018 2.36e-018 2.16e-018 1.98e-018 1.81e-018
8.70 1.66e-018 1.52e-018 1.39e-018 1.27e-018 1.17e-018 1.07e-018 9.76e-019 8.93e-019 8.17e-019 7.48e-019
8.80 6.84e-019 6.26e-019 5.72e-019 5.23e-019 4.79e-019 4.38e-019 4.00e-019 3.66e-019 3.34e-019 3.06e-019
8.90 2.79e-019 2.55e-019 2.33e-019 2.13e-019 1.95e-019 1.78e-019 1.62e-019 1.48e-019 1.35e-019 1.24e-019
9.00 1.13e-019 1.03e-019 9.40e-020 8.58e-020 7.83e-020 7.15e-020 6.52e-020 5.95e-020 5.43e-020 4.95e-020
9.10 4.52e-020 4.12e-020 3.76e-020 3.42e-020 3.12e-020 2.85e-020 2.59e-020 2.37e-020 2.16e-020 1.96e-020
9.20 1.79e-020 1.63e-020 1.49e-020 1.35e-020 1.23e-020 1.12e-020 1.02e-020 9.31e-021 8.47e-021 7.71e-021
9.30 7.02e-021 6.39e-021 5.82e-021 5.29e-021 4.82e-021 4.38e-021 3.99e-021 3.63e-021 3.30e-021 3.00e-021
9.40 2.73e-021 2.48e-021 2.26e-021 2.05e-021 1.86e-021 1.69e-021 1.54e-021 1.40e-021 1.27e-021 1.16e-021
9.50 1.05e-021 9.53e-022 8.66e-022 7.86e-022 7.14e-022 6.48e-022 5.89e-022 5.35e-022 4.85e-022 4.40e-022
9.60 4.00e-022 3.63e-022 3.29e-022 2.99e-022 2.71e-022 2.46e-022 2.23e-022 2.02e-022 1.83e-022 1.66e-022
9.70 1.51e-022 1.37e-022 1.24e-022 1.12e-022 1.02e-022 9.22e-023 8.36e-023 7.57e-023 6.86e-023 6.21e-023
9.80 5.63e-023 5.10e-023 4.62e-023 4.18e-023 3.79e-023 3.43e-023 3.10e-023 2.81e-023 2.54e-023 2.30e-023
9.90 2.08e-023 1.88e-023 1.70e-023 1.54e-023 1.39e-023 1.26e-023 1.14e-023 1.03e-023 9.32e-024 8.43e-024
. so what are the possibilities? SL -
Z=
USL
SL T (Target)
LSL (Mean)
Z =
st (short-term)
lt (long-term) st
lt
Selecting an Appropriate Z
SL - T SL - T
Eq. 8.1 Zst = Eq. 8.3 Z=
st lt
This Z value is designated as Z.st. It describes how precise This Z value is designated as Z.lt.d. It is a measure
This Z value is designated as Z.st. It describes how precise
the process is at any given moment in time. For this ofThis Z valueprocess
long-term is designated as Z.lt.d.
capability. It is athe
It reflects measure
the process is at any given moment in time. For this of long-term process capability. It
influence of white noise, as well as the dynamic reflects the
reason, it is referred to as “instantaneous capability.” It is influencedueof white noise, as process
well as the dynamic
reason, it is referred to as “instantaneous capability.” It is variations to nonrandom centering
also called “short-term capability.” In context of the Six variations due to
also called “short-term capability.” In context of the Six error; i.e., shifts andnonrandom
drifts in theprocess
process centering
mean
Sigma Program, it is the value used when referring to the error;sampling
across i.e., shiftssubgroups.
and drifts in It the process
assumes thatmean
the
Sigma Program, it is the value used when referring to the across
“SIGMA” of process. It represents the true potential of the
“SIGMA” of process. It represents the true potential of the errors in sampling subgroups.
process centering are It assumesand
dynamic thatwill
the
process technology to meet the given performance errors in process centering are dynamic
eventually average out (over a great many cycles) to and will
process technology to meet the given performance eventually average out In (over a great many
specification(s); I.e., what the process can do if everything the target specification. context of the Sixcycles)
Sigmato
specification(s); I.e., what the process can do if everything the target specification. In context of
Program, it is not often used, except in some design the Six Sigma
is controlled to such an extent that only background noise
is controlled to such an extent that only background noise Program, itapplications.
engineering is not often used,
This except
metric in some design
assumes the
is present, common cause variation. It reflects the process
is present, common cause variation. It reflects the process engineering
data applications.
were gathered This metric
in accordance to the assumes
principalsthe
capability under the assumption of random variation and data were gathered in accordance to the principals
capability under the assumption of random variation and and spirit of a “rational sampling” plan. For a
does not give consideration to the process center. This and spirittolerance
of a “rational sampling” plan.this For a
does not give consideration to the process center. This unilateral with no target value,
metric assumes the data were gathered in accordance to the unilateral tolerance withInnosuch
target
metric assumes the data were gathered in accordance to the equation cannot be used. an value,
event, thisEq. 4
principals and spirit of a “rational sampling” plan. For a equation
should cannot be to
be employed used. In such
estimate an event,process
long-term Eq. 4
principals and spirit of a “rational sampling” plan. For a should be employed to estimate long-term process
unilateral tolerance with no target Eq. 2 should be used. capability.
unilateral tolerance with no target Eq. 2 should be used. capability.
SL - SL -
Eq. 8.2 Z= Eq. 8.4 Zlt =
st lt
This Z value is designated as Z.lt. It is a measure of This Z value is designated as Z.lt.s. It describes the
This Z value
long-term is designated
capability and, when as Z.lt.
used Itproperly,
is a measure of This Z value
sustained is designated
reproducibility of aasprocess.
Z.lt.s. ItBecause
describes of the
long-term capability and, when used
reflects process accuracy when compared to Z.st; properly, this, it is also called “long-term capability.” In of
sustained reproducibility of a process. Because
reflects
e.g., Z.st -process accuracyExpressed
Z.lt = Z.shift. when compared to Z.st;
differently, it this, it of
context is the
alsoSix
called
Sigma“long-term
Program,capability.”
it is the value In
e.g., Z.st
reflects how - Z.lt
well=the
Z.shift.
processExpressed
remains differently,
centered over it context
used of the Six
to estimate the Sigma Program,
long-term process it is the value
“PPM.” It
reflects
time. how well
Of course, the process
it ignores any remains
nonrandom centered
processover used tothe
reflects estimate the of
influence long-term process
special cause “PPM.” It
variation,
time. Oferrors
centering course, it ignores
which any nonrandom
may occur between samplingprocess reflects nonrandom
dynamic the influence of special
process cause error,
centering variation,
and
centering errors which may occur
intervals. This metric assumes the data were between sampling dynamic nonrandom process centering
any static offset present in the process mean. error,From
and
intervals.
gathered This metricto
in accordance assumes the dataand
the principals were spirit of anyperspective,
this static offsetitpresent
considersin the process
all of mean.
the “vital few”From
gathered in accordance to the principals
a “rational sampling” plan. However, in the and spirit of this perspective, it considers all of the
sources of manufacturing error. It is a measure of “vital few”
a “rational
instance of a sampling” plan. However,
unilateral tolerance with nointarget
the sources
how well ofthemanufacturing error. It(over
process is controlled is a measure
many of
instance of athe
specification, unilateral
given Ztolerance
value willwith no target
reflect only how well
cycles) when thecompared
process istocontrolled
Z.st. This(over metric many
assumes
specification,
short-term the given
capability. Z value
In this will reflectthe
circumstance, only the data were gathered in accordance to the assumes
cycles) when compared to Z.st. This metric
short-term
mean becomes capability.
the target.In Consequently,
this circumstance,it willthe the data were
principals gathered
and spirit of a in accordance
“rational to the plan.
sampling”
mean becomes the target. Consequently,
produce the same result as Eq. 1; therefore, it it will principals and spirit of a “rational sampling”
This equation is applicable to all types of tolerances. plan.
produce
should the same result
be designated as Eq.
as Z.st and 1;
sotherefore,
interpreted. it This equation is applicable to all types of tolerances.
should be designated as Z.st and so interpreted.
Z-Bench
Short Term
Long Term
P(d)LSL P(d)USL
_
LSL T x USL
Process Capability
Continuous Data
• Process Centering
Discrete Data
• Discrete Distributions
• Yield
3.4 ppm
T
T
LSL
LSL 4.5 USL
USL
The 1.5 shift is used as a compensatory offset in the mean to generally account
for dynamic nonrandom variations in process centering. It represents the average
amount of change in a typical process over many cycles of that process.
Time
RATIONAL
RATIONALSUBGROUPING
SUBGROUPING
CHOOSE
CHOOSE SUBGROUPSSO
SUBGROUPS SOTHAT:
THAT:
1.1. There
Thereisismaximum
maximumchance
chancefor
forthe
themeasurements
measurementsinineach
eachsubgroup
subgroup
totobe alike. A subgroup should only contain common cause
be alike. A subgroup should only contain common cause
variation.
variation.
2.2. There
Thereisismaximum
maximumchancechancefor
forsubgroups
subgroupstotodiffer
differfrom
fromone
onetotothe
the
the
thenext.
next. The
Thedifference
differencebetween
betweenthe
thesubgroups
subgroupsisisthethespecial
special
cause variation.
cause variation.
Production
Unit
Production Sequence
Sampling Window n = 5
SS T SS B SS W
x x x x
g n g g n
x
2 2 2
j 1 i 1
ij n
j 1
j
j 1
i 1
ij xj
Total
Total Between
Between Within
Within
Sustained Reproducibility Instantaneous Reproducibility
Capability
Capability Accuracy
Accuracy Precision
Precision
Long term “Shift” Short term
Total Variation Special Cause Common Cause
Performance Variation Variation
Control Technology
Dr. Mikel J. Harry Vital few Trivial many
Time 1
Time 2
Time 3
Time 4
g n
2 g
(x ij- x) n ( x j -x )
2
j=1 i =1
j=1
Total Between
Groups
LSL T USL
Dr. Mikel J. Harry
Zst
• Short term capability (short term Z Bench).
• Process potential when process centering
principle applied.
• Containing only common cause variation.
Zlt
• Long term capability (long term Z Bench).
• True capability when process centering
principle applied.
• Containing both common cause and special
cause variations
Important Note:
Subgroup=1
— Using a subgroup size = 1 in the Minitab Process
report results in misleading and, in most cases,
wrong ZST, ZSHIFT, and DPMOST values.
— This discrepancy is due to the way that Minitab
estimates ST.
— Only the long term values are valid with a
subgroup size = 1.
One-sided Specifications
— Minitab assumes the mid-point between
specifications is the target and calculate ZST,
based on the process centering principle.
— One sided spec will results in invalid ST unless a
target is entered.
Process Capability
Continuous Data
• Process Centering
Discrete Data
• Discrete Distributions
• Yield
Discrete
DiscreteData
Data Continuous
Continuous
Data
Data
Defects per Six Sigma Process
Opportunity Report:
Defects per Million Zlong term
Opportunities
Zshort term
L1 Spreadsheet - Z
Zshift
Six Sigma Product
Report
Definitions
Unit (U)
The number of parts, sub-assemblies,
assemblies, or systems inspected or tested.
– Squares: 4 units
Opportunity (OP)
A characteristic you inspect or test.
– Circles: 5 opportunities per unit
Defect (D)
Anything that results in customer
dissatisfaction. Anything that results in a non-
conformance.
– Black circles: 9 defects
Formulas
Defects per Unit
DPU = D/U
9/4 = 2.25
Total Opportunities
TOP = U*OP
4*5 = 20
DPO
DPO==Probability
Probabilityof
ofaaDefect
Defect
Probability
Specification Of A Defect
Limit Example = .028066
Area of Yield
Units of Measure
Table Of
2.76 .002889938 4.27
2.81 .002476947 4.32
1.35 .088507862 2.86 .002118083 4.37
1.40
1.45
.080756531
.073529141
2.91
2.96
.001807032
.001538097
4.42
4.47 Area Under
1.50 .066807100 3.01 .001306156 4.52
The Normal
Curve
© 1994 Dr. Mikel J. Harry V3.0
Converting DPMO to Z
Sigma table
Long term Actual Reported
DPMO Sigma (long term) Sigma (short term)
500,000 0 1.5
460,172 0.1 1.6
420,740 0.2 1.7
382,089 0.3 1.8
344,578 0.4 1.9
308,538 0.5 2
274,253 0.6 2.1
241,964 0.7 2.2
211,855 0.8 2.3
184,060 0.9 2.4
158,655 1 2.5
135,666 1.1 2.6
115,070 1.2 2.7
96,801 1.3 2.8
80,757
66,807
1.4
1.5
2.9
3
Z = Sigma
Capability
54,799 1.6 3.1
44,565 1.7 3.2
35,930 1.8 3.3
28,716 1.9 3.4
22,750 2 3.5
17,864 2.1 3.6
13,903 2.2 3.7
10,724 2.3 3.8
8,198 2.4 3.9
6,210
4,661
2.5
2.6
4
4.1
ZZ DPMO
DPMO
3,467 2.7 4.2
2,555 2.8 4.3
1,866
1,350
2.9
3
4.4
4.5
2 308,537
968
687
3.1
3.2
4.6
4.7
3 66,807
483
337
3.3
3.4
4.8
4.9
4 6,210
233
159
3.5
3.6
5
5.1
5 233
108
72
3.7
3.8
5.2
5.3
6 3.4
48 3.9 5.4
32 4 5.5
21 4.1 5.6
13 4.2 5.7
9 4.3 5.8
5 4.4 5.9
3.4 4.5 6
Process Capability
Continuous Data
• Process Centering
Discrete Data
• Discrete Distributions
• Yield
Learning Objectives
Binomial Distribution
Application of Binomial Distribution
Poisson’s Distribution
Application of Poisson’s distribution
38
GB DMAIC - Analyze Part 1 Version 2.0 5/2002 7.38
g GE Global Research
Binomial Distribution
Consider that an activity has a success rate of 80%, i.e. 0.8
probability of success, this means there is a 20% chance of
failure. The question is, if this activity is repeated say 1000
times, what is the likelihood that 800 times out of these trials,
there is a success? Such trials are called Bernoulli trials and the
probability distribution is called Binomial ( Bernoulli) distribution
given by
n!
B(n, r , p )nCr p n (1 p ) n r where nCr
r!n r !
In the above example, n=1000, r=800 and p=0.8
Bernoulli's Distribution
0.14
0.12
0.1
Probability
p=0.1
0.08
p=0.5
0.06
p=0.7
0.04
0.02
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Number of Trials
Poisson’s Distribution
When there is a known average failure rate, such as no. of
accidents per annum, no. of defects per sq. meter, no. of viruses
per cc of blood etc, the probability that a failure occurs in the a
unit or over a period of units such as time, area, volume etc. is
given by Poisson’s distribution.
e t ( t ) n Mean t
P ( n, t )
n! Variance 2 t
Poisson's Distribution
0.9
0.8
0.7
lamda=0.05
0.6
Probability
lambda=0.5
0.5 lambda=1
lambda=1.5
0.4
lambda=10
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
n
DPU OP
P{0} = 1
OP
P{0} = e-DPU
Process Capability
Continuous Data
• Process Centering
Discrete Data
• Discrete Distributions
• Yield
Yield
What
Whatis
isthe
theyield
yieldof
ofthis
thisprocess?
process?
Types of Yield
Throughput Yield =
YTP = P(0) = e-DPU = e-2.25 = .1054 = 10.54%
YTP is the percentage of units that pass through
an operation without any defects. This is the
best yield estimate to drive improvement.
Operation Verify
Classical
ClassicalYield
Yield
Operation Verify YY.C .C or Test
Yield after Inspection
Yield after Inspection or Test
DPU = 2.25
Not
OK
Rework
Rework
10.54% = 75%
Scrap
Scrap ... why not?
OR
= e
-TDPU
YRT
Each Operation has a 0.01 probability of a
defect. Therefore:
Capability
Complexity
Run Chart
Run Chart
How: Determine what you want to measure
Determine period of time to measure and
in what time increments
Create a graph (vertical axis =
occurrences, horizontal axis =
time)
Collect data and plot
Connect data points with solid line
Calculate average of measurements, draw
solid horizontal line on run chart
Analyze results
Indicate with a dashed vertical line when a
change was •introduced to the
process •
70
• •
65 •
60 • •
55 •
50 •
45 •
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
J F M A M J J A S O