Combinatory and

Discrete Systems
Dr. A. S. Makinde
Senior Lecturer/Ag. DICT
1/2/2024
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Probability
• Probability theory is a mathematical modeling of the phenomenon of
chance or randomness.
• If a coin is tossed in a random manner, it can land heads or tails, but we do
not know which of these will occur in a single toss.
• However, suppose we let s be the number of times heads appears when
the coin is tossed n times.
• As n increases, the ratio f = s/n, called the relative frequency of the
outcome, becomes more stable.
• If the coin is perfectly balanced, then we expect that the coin will land
heads approximately 50% of the time or, in other words, the relative
frequency will approach 1/2.
1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Sample Space and Events
• The set S of all possible outcomes of a given experiment is called the
sample space.
• A particular outcome, i.e., an element in S, is called a sample point.
• An event A is a set of outcomes or, in other words, a subset of the sample
space S.
• In particular, the set {a} consisting of a single sample point a ∈ S is called
an elementary event.
• Furthermore, the empty set and S itself are subsets of S and so and S are
also events; is sometimes called the impossible event or the null event.

1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Sample Space and Events
• Since an event is a set, we can combine events to form new events using
the various set operations:

• (i) A ∪ B is the event that occurs iff A occurs or B occurs (or both).
• (ii) A ∩ B is the event that occurs iff A occurs and B occurs.
• (iii) Ac, the complement of A, also written , is the event that occurs iff A
does not occur.

• Two events A and B are called mutually exclusive if they are disjoint, that
is, if A∩B = . In other words, A and B are mutually exclusive iff they cannot
occur simultaneously. Three or more events are mutually exclusive
• if every two of them are mutually exclusive. 1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Sample Space and Events
• Experiment 1: Toss a coin three times and observe the sequence of heads
(H ) and tails (T ) that appears.
• The sample space consists of the following eight elements:
S = {H H H , H H T , H T H , H T T , T H H , T H T , T T H , T T T }
• Let A be the event that two or more heads appear consecutively, and B
that all the tosses are the same:
A = {H H H , H H T , T H H} and B = {H H H , T T T }
• Then A ∩ B = {H H H} is the elementary event that only heads appear.
• The event that five heads appears is the empty set .

1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Sample Space and Events
• Experiment 2: Toss a (six-sided) die, pictured in Fig below, and observe the
number (of dots) that appear on top.
• The sample space S consists of the six possible numbers, that is, S = {1, 2,
3, 4, 5, 6}.
• Let A be the event that an even number appears, B that an odd number
appears, and C that a prime number appears.
• That is, let
A = {2, 4, 6}, B = {1, 3, 5}, C = {2, 3, 5}
• A ∪ C = {2, 3, 4, 5, 6} is the event that an even or a prime number occurs.
• B ∩ C = {3, 5} is the event that an odd prime number occurs.
• Cc = {1, 4, 6} is the event that a prime number does not occur.
1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Sample Space and Events
• Note that A and B are mutually exclusive: A ∩ B = .
• In other words, an even number and an odd number cannot occur
simultaneously.

1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Sample Space and Events
• EXAMPLE (Pair of dice) Toss a pair of dice and record the two numbers on
the top.
• There are six possible numbers, 1, 2, . . . , 6, on each die.
• Thus S consists of the pairs of numbers from 1 to 6, and hence n(S) = 36.
• Figure below shows these 36 pairs of numbers arranged in an array where
the rows are labeled by the first die and the columns by the second die.

1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Sample Space and Events
• Let A be the event that the sum of the two numbers is 6, and let B be the
event that the largest of the two numbers is 4.
• That is, let
A = {(1, 5), (2, 4), (3, 3), (4, 2), (5, 1)},
B = {(1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (4, 4), (4, 3), (4, 2), (4, 1)}

Then the event “A and B” consists of those pairs of integers whose sum is 6
and whose largest number is 4 or, in other words, the intersection of A and B.
Thus
A ∩ B = {(2, 4), (4, 2)}
Similarly, “A or B,” the sum is 6 or the largest is 4, shaded in previous slide, is
the union A ∪ B. 1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Finite Probability Spaces
• The following definition applies.
• Definition 1: Let S be a finite sample space, say S = {a1, a2, . . . , an}.
• A finite probability space, or probability model, is obtained by assigning to
each point ai in S a real number pi, called the probability of ai satisfying the
following properties:
• (i) Each pi is nonnegative, that is, pi ≥ 0.
• (ii) The sum of the pi is 1, that is, is p1 + p2 + · · · + pn = 1.

• The probability of an event A written P (A), is then defined to be the sum

of the probabilities of the points in A.
• The singleton set {ai} is called an elementary event and, for notational
1
EDO convenience, we write
STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE P (ai) for P ({ai}).
(EDSU)
 Finite Probability Spaces
• EXAMPLE (Experiment) Suppose three coins are tossed, and the number
of heads is recorded.

• The sample space is S = {0, 1, 2, 3}. The following assignments on the

elements of S define a probability space:
• P (0) = 1/8, P (1) = 3/8, P (2) = 3/8, P (3) = 1/8

• That is, each probability is nonnegative, and the sum of the probabilities is
1.
• Let A be the event that at least one head appears, and let B be the event
that all heads or all tails appear; that is, let A = {1, 2, 3} and B = {0, 3}.
1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Equiprobable Spaces
• Frequently the physical characteristics of an experiment suggest that the
various outcomes of the sample space be assigned equal probabilities.
• Such a finite probability space S, where each sample point has the same
probability, will be called an equiprobable space.
• In particular, if S contains n points, then the probability of each point is
1/n.
• Furthermore, if an event A contains r points, then its probability is r(1/n) =
r/n.
• In other words, where n(A) denotes the number of elements in a set A,

1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Equiprobable Spaces

• Note: the above formula for P (A) can only be used with
respect to an equiprobable space, and cannot be used in
general.
• The expression at random will be used only with respect to an
equiprobable space; the statement “choose a point at random
from a set S” shall mean that every sample point in S has the
same probability of being chosen.
1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Theorems on Finite Probability Spaces
• The following theorem follows directly from the fact that the probability
of an event is the sum of the probabilities of its points.

• Theorem 1: The probability function P defined on the class of all events in

a finite probability space has the following properties:
• [P1] For every event A, 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1.
• [P2] P (S) = 1.
• [P3] If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B).

1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Theorems on Finite Probability Spaces
• Theorem 2: Let A be any event. Then P (Ac) = 1 − P (A).

• Theorem 3: Consider the empty set and any events A and B. Then:
• (i) P () = 0.
• (ii) P (A\B) = P (A) − P (A ∩ B).
• (iii) If A ⊆ B, then P (A) ≤ P (B).

• Theorem 4 (Addition Principle): For any events A and B,

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Theorems on Finite Probability Spaces
• EXAMPLE: Suppose a student is selected at random from 100 students
where 30 are taking mathematics, 20 are taking chemistry, and 10 are
taking mathematics and chemistry. Find the probability p that the student
is taking mathematics or chemistry.

1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Theorems on Finite Probability Spaces
• Let M = {students taking mathematics} and C = {students taking
chemistry}. Since the space is equiprobable,

• Thus, by the Addition Principle (Theorem 4)

1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Finite Probability Spaces (C/W)
Qus 1: A coin is weighted so that heads is twice as likely to appear as tails.
Find P (T) and P (H).

Qus 2: Suppose A and B are events with P (A) = 0.6, P (B) = 0.3, and P (A ∩ B)
= 0.2. Find the probability that:
(a) A does not occur; (c) A or B occurs;
(b) B does not occur; (d) Neither A nor B occurs.

1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Conditional Probability
• Suppose E is an event in a sample space S with P (E) > 0. The probability
that an event A occurs once E has occurred or, specifically, the
conditional probability of A given E. written P (A|E), is defined as follows:

• Example: A pair of fair dice is tossed. The sample space S consists of the
36 ordered pairs (a, b), where a and b can be any of the integers from 1
to 6. Thus the probability of any point is 36 1 . Find the probability that
one of the dice is 2 if the sum is 6. That is, find P (A|E) where:
E = {sum is 6} and A = {2 appears on at least one die}
1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Conditional Probability
• Example: A couple has two children; the sample space is S = {bb, bg, gb,
gg} with probability 1/4 for each point. Find the probability p that both
children are boys if it is known that: (i) at least one of the children is a
boy; (ii) the older child is a boy.

1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Conditional Probability (C/W)
• Qus 1: A pair of fair dice is thrown. Find the probability that the sum is
10 or greater if:
(a) 5 appears on the first die; (b) 5 appears on at least one die.

1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)
 Conditional Probability (C/W)
• Qus 2: In a certain University, 25% of the students failed mathematics
(M), 15% failed chemistry (C), and 10% failed both mathematics and
chemistry. A student is selected at random.

• (a) If he failed chemistry, find the probability that he also failed

mathematics.
• (b) If he failed mathematics, find the probability that he also failed
chemistry.
• (c) Find the probability that he failed mathematics or chemistry.
• (d) Find the probability that he failed neither mathematics nor
chemistry.
1
EDO STATE UNIVERSITY UZAIRUE (EDSU)