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ESTIMATION OF
PARAMETERS – part 2

MAT 3 – STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Math & Physics Department
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Learning Objectives

1. Revisit: Central Limit Theorem

2. Confidence intervals for the population mean when σ is given
- using z - distribution

3. Confidence intervals for the population mean when σ is unknown

- using t-distribution

4. Confidence Interval Estimates for Population Proportion

Math & Physics Department

 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Standard Error of the Mean
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It is the counterpart of the standard deviation.

It is an important statistical tool because it is a measure of the amount of
sampling error.
It is different from the other error, it can be reduced if there’s an increase
in sample size.
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
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Central Limit Theorem

(CLT)
 Central Limit Theorem

Mr. Ron P. Agaloos

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 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
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Proofs of Central Limit Theorem
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
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Confidence Interval
and
Confidence Level
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Confidence Interval
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Confidence Level
- It is the area under the curve in which we expect the population mean
to be located in
- (1-α), where alpha α is the probability that the mean is outside the
confidence interval

Note: Ways to decrease the margin of error

1) Decrease the confidence interval;
2) Increase the sample size
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
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Z-interval estimate of
population mean:

-using z-distribution
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Z-interval estimate of population mean
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Conditions when to use z-value:

1. If sample size n ≥ 30
2. Population standard deviation σ is known (given)
3. If n<30, variable should be normally distributed
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Confidence Interval using z-value
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Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Problem 1
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Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Problem 1
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 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Problem 2
The 35 Grade 11 students have mean score of 82 in Reading and Writing with
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standard deviation of 15. Construct an interval estimate if the level of confidence is 95%
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Problem 3
The average test scores in a Biology class is normally distributed with a standard
deviation of 5. Fifty scores with a sample mean of 75 were selected at random.
◤ a) What is the value of the maximum error of the mean?
b) Find the a 90% confidence interval for the population mean test score
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
T-statistic estimate of
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population mean:

-using t-distribution
 T-statistic estimate of population mean

Mr. Ron P. Agaloos

Conditions
◤ when to use t-distribution:
1. If sample size n < 30
2. Population standard deviation σ is unknown (not given)
3. Variance is greater than 1
4. t-distribution is the family of curves based on the degrees of
freedom
5. If the sample size increases, the t-distribution approaches the
standard normal distribution
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Confidence Interval using t-value
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Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Problem 1
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 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Problem 2
The 28 employees of ABC company has a mean travel time of 14.3
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kilometer to their work. The standard deviation of the travel time is 2 km. Determine the
95% confidence interval population mean.
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Problem 3
A Reading and Writing class in Grade 11 has 500 students. The grades of 10 students
were ◤selected at random and are shown in the table below.
a) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the sample
b) Calculate the maximum error
c) Construct a 90% confidence interval of the mean score

77 85 68 93 95
89 73 97 88 75
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Problem 3
A Reading and Writing class in Grade 11 has 500 students. The grades of 10 students
were ◤selected at random and are shown in the table below.
a) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the sample
b) Calculate the maximum error
c) Construct a 90% confidence interval of the mean score
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
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Confidence Interval
Estimates for
Population Proportion
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Confidence Interval Estimates for
◤ Population Proportion
This test is considered binomial experiment when there are two possible
outcomes and the probability of success changes.

Population Proportion (ρ)

- It is the fraction or part of the population that has a certain trait/characteristics in a
binomial experiments denoted by ρ and the value of the parameter p is unknown.

Sample Proportion (𝑝̂ )

- It is the fraction or part of the sample that contain characteristic denoted by 𝑝̂.
- The statistic 𝑝̂ is an estimate of ρ.
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Confidence Interval Estimates for
◤ Population Proportion

Interval Estimate
- An interval of values used to estimate a population parameter for proportion.

Confidence Level
- Most commonly used are 0.90, 0.95 and 0.99
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Confidence Interval Estimates for
◤ Population Proportion
Multiplier or Standard Error of Estimate
- It is the standardized Z-score that the area between –z and +z under the standard
normal curve corresponds to the desired confidence interval.
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
◤ FORMULA for ONE PROPORTION
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Confidence Interval of the population proportion
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 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Problem 1
Given: 𝒑̂ = 0. 22 sample proportion
◤ n = 250 number of sample
X = 55 number of desired outcomes from the
sample
Find the confidence interval if the level of confidence if 95%
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Problem 2
There are 55 college students chosen randomly from 450 enrolled in the first
semester
◤ who wish to enroll a summer program in their major subjects. Estimate the population
proportion of students that 11% will take summer class. Use 95% confidence level.
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Problem 3
A medical student wishes to determine the percentage of lactating mothers who uses
supplemental
◤ food aside from breastfeeding among 10 months to 2 years old infants. The researcher
wishes to be 95% confident that the estimate is within the 2% points of the proportion. A recent study of
100 mothers showed that 45% used supplemental food. How large is the sample size?
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Sample Problem 4
200 residents in a certain subdivision were asked if they own a car. Of the 200 surveyed, 105 responded yes.
a) Construct a 95% confidence interval to estimate the true population proportion who own a car in that subdivision
◤ sample size is needed to estimate the true proportion with a 2% margin of error at a 99% confidence level?
b) What
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Other Examples
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 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Additional sample # 1
◤ The score of 625 randomly selected SHS
students in their 3rd QE in Statistics & Probability
were analyzed and found to have a mean of 45.5 and
standard deviation of 3.5. Find a 90% confidence
interval.
SOLUTION:
Use z-statistic estimate
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Additional sample # 2
◤ The average height of randomly chosen 25
female students was 155 cm. with standard deviation
of 3.5 cm Find the 95% confidence interval.

SOLUTION:
Use t-statistic estimate
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Additional sample # 3
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Among 500 adult males, 175 were randomly selected.

Estimate the population proportion of adult males
that 5% are obese, use 95% level of confidence.

SOLUTION:
Use proportion estimate
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Additional sample # 4
The◤ average weight of 15 students in a certain grade

school was found to be 95 lbs with a standard

deviation of 3.2
a) Determine the maximum error of the mean;
b) Construct a 95% confidence interval for the
population mean.
SOLUTION:
Use t-value estimate
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Additional sample # 5
◤ The average test scores in a Statistics class is normally
distributed with a standard deviation of 6.5. One hundred
scores with a sample mean of 80 were selected at random.
a) What is the value of the maximum error of the mean?
b) Find the a 95% confidence interval for the population
mean test score

SOLUTION:
Use z-value estimate

PA
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Post - Activity
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Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
3. B
2. A
1. C
4. D
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 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Identify
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It is the fraction or part of the sample that

contain characteristic
A. Statistic B. Proportion C.
Parameter

B
 Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Identify
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Distribution values that is used if population

standard deviation is not given and the sample
size is lower than 30.

t-distribution

SG
Summary / Generalization

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What lesson/s can we get from
estimation parameter?

“Humility is to make a right estimate of one's self.” (Charles Spurgeon)

“Estimation in life is [the] key. Don’t underestimate the effort and don’t
overestimate your capacity.” ( Yugesh Mandvikar)

E
 ◤

Synchronous Learning
End Session

MAT 3 – STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Math & Physics Department
 ASYNCHRONOUS
◤
LEARNING
Try to answer.
1. Use the data below to construct the 90% confidence interval for the average of the
scores of the Grade 11 students in the First Quarterly Examination in Statistics and
Probability.

Answer:
Confidence Interval: 75 to 79
Prepared by
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Math & Physics Department MAT 3 – Statistics & Probability
 ASYNCHRONOUS
◤
LEARNING
Try to answer.
2. Five hundred college students in a certain university were asked if they uses more than one social media account. Of the 500
surveyed, 405 responded yes.
a) Construct a 90% confidence interval to estimate the true population proportion uses more than one social media account
b) What sample size is needed to estimate the true proportion with a 5% margin of error at a 99% confidence level?

Answer:
a) Confidence Interval of 90%: 0.781 to 0.839
b) n = 410 samples

Prepared by
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Math & Physics Department MAT 3 – Statistics & Probability
 ASYNCHRONOUS
◤
LEARNING

B. QUIZ # 1 (wt & pt)

Review: Estimation Parameters
Deadline: a day before your next online
class

Prepared by
Mr. Ron P. Agaloos
Math & Physics Department MAT 3 – Statistics & Probability
 Thank you
◤

and
have a nice day!
Math & Physics Department