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Water supply and pollution
control
Chapter 6 Water Distribution system
Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017
Population forecasting Water supply project is not designed only for present population.
Its made to accommodate the future
population at the end of three or four decades.
The future period for which various service
units are designed is period of design.
Normally period of design is taken 20 to 30
years. (even up to 50 years) Methods of Population forecasts Following are various methods for population forecasts and selection of method will depend on the available data:
Arithmetical increase method The increase in population is assumed to be constant and average increase of the last decades is calculated.
=future population (at the end of n years)
=present population i=yearly or per decade increase
Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017
Example:
What will be the population of the city
in 2020 and 2030 if census record of the city show: Year population 2010 50000 2000 47100 1990 43500 1980 41000
Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017
Geometrical increase method In this method the average percentage of growth of last few decades is determined. The population at the end of n years or decades:
=future population (at the end of n years)
=present population r=yearly or per decade rate of increase
Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017
Example:
What will be the population of the city
in 2020 and 2030 if census record of the city show: Year population 2010 50000 2000 47100 1990 43500 1980 41000
Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017
Graphical method The population of the last few decades/years is correctly plotted to the scale in graph-paper, the curve is smoothly extended to fine the future population. population
Time, years
Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017
Comparative method Cities having similar characteristics to the city whose population is to be estimated are selected. Comparative method population
Time, year
Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017
Growth composition method There are only three ways by which change in population occurs:
Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017
Example: (HW) What will be the population of the city in 2020 and 2030 if census record of the city show: (compare the results of different methods). Year population 2010 50000 2000 47100 1990 43500 1980 41000