Water Supply-4

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Water supply and pollution

control

Chapter 6
Water Distribution system

Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017


Population forecasting
 Water supply project is not designed only for
present population.

 Its made to accommodate the future


population at the end of three or four decades.

 The future period for which various service


units are designed is period of design.

 Normally period of design is taken 20 to 30


years. (even up to 50 years)
Methods of Population forecasts
 Following are various methods for population
forecasts and selection of method will depend on
the available data:

1. Arithmetical increase method


2. Geometrical increase method
3. Graphical method
4. Comparative method
5. Growth composition method

Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017


Arithmetical increase
method
 The increase in population is assumed to be
constant and average increase of the last
decades is calculated.

=future population (at the end of n years)


=present population
i=yearly or per decade increase

Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017


Example:

 What will be the population of the city


in 2020 and 2030 if census record of the
city show:
Year population
2010 50000
2000 47100
1990 43500
1980 41000

Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017


Geometrical increase
method
 In this method the average percentage of
growth of last few decades is determined. The
population at the end of n years or decades:

=future population (at the end of n years)


=present population
r=yearly or per decade rate of increase

Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017


Example:

 What will be the population of the city


in 2020 and 2030 if census record of the
city show:
Year population
2010 50000
2000 47100
1990 43500
1980 41000

Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017


Graphical method
 The population of the last few decades/years is
correctly plotted to the scale in graph-paper, the
curve is smoothly extended to fine the future
population.
population

Time, years

Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017


Comparative method
 Cities having similar characteristics to the city
whose population is to be estimated are
selected.
Comparative method
population

Time, year

Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017


Growth composition method
 There are only three ways by which change in
population occurs:

Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017


Example: (HW)
 What will be the population of the city in 2020
and 2030 if census record of the city show:
(compare the results of different methods).
Year population
2010 50000
2000 47100
1990 43500
1980 41000

1970 38000

1960 17565

Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017


Questions!

Moh.Mansour Nasir 25-April-2017

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