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Lec 4

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33 views26 pages

Lec 4

Uploaded by

lohiya6399
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Conditional Probability

• P(A|B) = P(A ∩ B)/P(B)


• P(B|A) = P(A ∩ B)/P(A)
• So, we can write
P(A ∩ B) = P(A|B)P(B) = P(B|A)P(A)
• Chain Rule:
P(A|B)P(B) = P(B|A)P(A)
Independent Events
• P(A|B)=P(A)
• OR
• P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B)
Example:- Ind. X:- Throw a dice, Y:- Toss of a Coin
Not Ind:- X: Height, Y:- Age
Example
Proof of Baye’s Theorem
• Theorem: If the events B1, B2, . . . , Bk are
pairwise independent and mutually exclusive
and exhaustive events in a sample space S,
then for any event A, then
Proof
• From chain rule, we know
P(Br|A)P(A) = P(A|Br)P(B)
P(Br|A) = P(A|Br)P(B)/ P(A)
• From law of total probability

So, we can write


Problem 1

Two of six computers in a lab have


problems with hard drives. If three
computers are selected at random for
inspection, what is the probability that
none of them has hard drive problems?
Ans: 1/5
Problem 2
• In this figure each component fails with
probability 0.3 independently of other
components. Compute the system’s reliability.
• Ans: 0.8854
Problem 3
• A computer maker receives parts from three suppliers S 1,
S2, S3. Fifty percent come from S1, twenty percent come
from S2, and thirty percent come from S3. Among all the
parts supplied by S1, 5% are defective. For S2 and S2, the
portion of defective parts is 3% and 6%, respectively.
• What portion of all the parts is defective?
• A customer complains that a certain part in her recently
purchased computer is defective. What is the probability
that it was supplied by S1?
Ans: 0.049, 0.51
Problem 4
• An important module is tested by three
independent teams of inspectors. Each team
detects a problem in a defective module with
probability 0.8. What is the probability that at
least one team of inspectors detects a
problem in a defective module?
Ans: 0.992
Problem 5
• A system may become infected by some
spyware through the internet or e-mail. 70%
of the time the spyware arrives via internet,
30% of the time via e-mail. If it enters via
internet , the system detects it with
probability 0.6. If via e-mail, it is detected with
probability 0.8. What percentage of times is
this spyware detected?
Ans: 0.6
What is the probability of two girls given at least one
girl?

•
What is the probability of two girls given at
least one girl?
Solution

Sample Space = : {GG, GB, BG, BB}

(2G | at least 1G) =


=
Alice and Bob toss two fair coins separately. Denote the event that Alice gets a H by EA and the event
that Bob gets a H by EB . What is the probability that at least one will get H ?

•
•We know that P(EA) = P(EB ) = 1/2.
The sample space you are considering is:
HT, TH, TT, HH. So EA = {HT, HH} and EB
= {TH, HH} .
So,

3/4.
Example-4: Given that,
B1: 3 Golds
B2: 2 Golds, 1 Silver
B3: 1 Golds, 2 Silver

A person chosen a box at random and takes out a coin. If the


coin is Gold. What is the probability that it was drawn from
box 3?
Example-4: Solution
Given that,
B1: 3 Golds
B2: 2 Golds, 1 Silver
B3: 1 Golds, 2 Silver

A =: event of getting Gold coin


E1 =: event of getting B1
E2 =: event of getting B2
E3 =: event of getting B3
Example-4: Solution

A =: event of getting Gold coin


E1 =: event of getting B1
E2 =: event of getting B2
E3 =: event of getting B3
Example-5 The number of balls in three Jars
is as follows:

#Jars Red White Black


1 3 2 1
2 2 1 2
3 4 2 3

One Jar is chosen at random and two balls are


drawn. The balls drawn are red and white.
What is the probability that they come from
Jar 1
Example-5: Solution
#Jars Red White Black
1 3 2 1
2 2 1 2
3 4 2 3

P(J1) = P(J2) = P (J3) = 1/3


P (E| J1) =
P (E| J2) =
P (E| J3) =
P(J1 | E) =
Question. Compute the reliability of the following system if each
of its component works with the probability 0.92 independently.
Solution
Question
• Ninety percent of flights depart on time. Eighty
percent of flights arrive on time. Seventy-five
percent of flights depart on time and arrive on time.
a) You are meeting a flight that departed on time.
What is the probability that it will arrive on time?
b) You have met a flight, and it arrived on time. What
is the probability that it departed on time?
c) Are the events, departing on time and arriving on
time, independent?
Solution
• Que. Suppose that a shuttle’s launch depends on three key
devices that operate independently of each other and
malfunction with probabilities 0.01, 0.02, and 0.02,
respectively. If any of the key devices malfunctions, the launch
will be postponed. Compute the probability for the shuttle to
be launched on time, according to its schedule.
• Que. Suppose that a shuttle’s launch depends on three key
devices that operate independently of each other and
malfunction with probabilities 0.01, 0.02, and 0.02,
respectively. If any of the key devices malfunctions, the launch
will be postponed. Compute the probability for the shuttle to
be launched on time, according to its schedule.

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