Scribd
Upload
5 views

Poisson Distribution of Probability With Solved Example

Poison

Uploaded by

Aditi Barua
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
5 views

Poisson Distribution of Probability With Solved Example

Poison

Uploaded by

Aditi Barua
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 10

Poisson Distribution

of Probability with
Solved Example
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution
that describes the probability of a given number of events
occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, given the
average rate of occurrence is known.
by Raunish Singh
Introduction to Poisson Distribution

1 Discrete Probability 2 Independent Events 3 Parameter Lambda

The Poisson distribution Poisson events are The Poisson distribution


models the probability of assumed to occur has a single parameter, λ,
discrete events, such as independently and at a which represents the
the number of customers constant average rate. average rate or mean
arriving at a store or the number of events per time
number of defects on a or space interval.
Characteristics of Poisson Distribution
Mean = Variance Non-Negative Integers Memoryless

The mean and variance of a The Poisson distribution only The Poisson process has the
Poisson distribution are both takes on non-negative integer memoryless property, meaning
equal to the parameter λ. values, as it models the number the future events are
of discrete events. independent of the past events.
Assumptions of Poisson Distribution

Constant Mean Rate Independence

The average rate of The occurrence of events


events, λ, is constant is independent of each
over the time or space other.
interval.

Rare Events Discrete Outcomes

The events are rare, with The number of events


a low probability of can only take on non-
occurrence in a small negative integer values.
interval.
Poisson Distribution Probability Form
Probability Formula
1
The probability mass function of the Poisson
distribution is given by: P(X = x) = (e^(-λ) *
λ^x) / x!

Parameters
2
Where X is the random variable representing the
number of events, λ is the average rate of
events, and e is the base of the natural
logarithm.

Calculation
3
The formula allows us to calculate the
probability of observing exactly x events, given
the average rate λ.
Solved Example - Poisson Distribution
Example

A helpdesk receives an average of 5 calls per


hour. What is the probability of receiving
exactly 3 calls in a given hour?

Given

Average rate (λ) = 5 calls per hour

Probability

P(X = 3) = (e^(-5) * 5^3) / 3! = 0.0743 or 7.43%


Calculating Poisson Probability

Calculate Probability

Use the Poisson distribution formula or a calculator to find the probability


of a specific number of events occurring.

Poisson Tables

Refer to statistical tables that provide pre-calculated Poisson probabilities


for different values of λ and x.

Visualization

Plot the Poisson distribution curve to visualize the probabilities for different number
Interpretation of Poisson Probability
Rare Events Uncertainty Decision-Making

The Poisson distribution is The probabilities calculated Poisson probabilities can inform
useful for modeling the using the Poisson distribution decisions, such as staffing
probability of rare events provide insights into the levels, inventory management,
occurring in a given time or uncertainty and variability of or resource allocation.
space. the event occurrences.
Properties and Applications of Poisson Distribution
Modeling Rare Events
1
Poisson distribution is widely used to model the
probability of rare or infrequent events, such as
customer arrivals, equipment failures, or natural
2 Queuing
disasters Theory
within a specific time frame.
This Theory analyzes waiting lines or queues,
using the Poisson Distribution to model the arrival
of customers or items(e.g., phone calls to a call
3 Reliability Engineering
center, people arriving at a bank).
Reliability Engineering uses the Poisson
distribution to model the occurrence of failures in
systems over time. If failures are random and
occur at a constant rate, then the distribution
4 Epidemiology
model is said to have number of failures over a
specific time period.
In Epidemiology, the Poisson Distribution models
the occurrence of rare diseases or events in a
population over a specific time period. For
instance, it can describe the number of new cases
of a disease occurring in a community where the
disease is relatively rare.
Limitations of Poisson Distribution

Constant Rate Assumption Independence Assumption

The Poisson distribution The assumption of


assumes a constant independence between
average rate of events, events may not hold true in
which may not always be certain situations, such as
the case in real-world when events are correlated
scenarios. or influenced by external
factors.
Discrete Nature Rare Event Assumption

The Poisson distribution is The assumption of rare


limited to modeling events may not always be
discrete, non-negative valid, as the Poisson
integer-valued events, distribution may not
which may not capture the accurately model scenarios
continuous nature of some with high event rates.
phenomena.

You might also like