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41 views15 pages

Ap Stats 7.2

Uploaded by

裴非
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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7.

2: Sample Proportions
Section 7.2
Sample Proportions
After this section, you should be able to…

 FIND the mean and standard deviation of the sampling


distribution of a sample proportion
 DETERMINE whether or not it is appropriate to use the
Normal approximation to calculate probabilities
involving the sample proportion
 CALCULATE probabilities involving the sample
proportion
 EVALUATE a claim about a population proportion using
the sampling distribution of the sample proportion
http://www.rossmanchance.com/a
pplets/Reeses/ReesesPieces.html
The Sampling Distribution of pˆ
What do you notice about the shape, center, and spread of each?

n =100 n =400

Sample Proportion Formulas

count of successes in sample X


pˆ  
size of sample n

p (1  p )
 pˆ 
n

The sample size MUST be less than 10% of the total


population.
Normal Approximation & Sample
Proportions
As the sample size increase, sample proportion approach
the normal distribution; therefore, we can use Normal
calculations.
Before using Normal calculation, check Normal
conditions:
– (sample size)(proportion) must be greater than 10.
– (sample size)(1 – proportion) must be greater than
10.
– Both must be greater than 10
Normal Approximation & Sample
Proportions
In the game of Scrabble, each player starts by
drawing 7 tiles from a bag of 100 tiles. There are 42
vowels, 56 constants and 2 blank tiles. Cait choses an
SRS of 7 tiles. Let be the proportion of vowels in her
sample.

a) Is the 10% condition met? Justify your answer.

b) Is the Normal condition met? Justify your answer.


Normal Approximation & Sample
Proportions
(a) Yes. Seven tiles is less than 10% of the population
of 100 tiles.
(b) No. Since the total sample size was 7, both np
and n(1-p) must be less than 10. The Normal
condition is not satisfied.
Normal Approximation & Sample
Proportions
A polling organization asks an SRS of 1500 first-year college
students how far away their home is. Suppose that 35% of
all first-year students actually attend college within 50 miles
of home.

What is the probability that the random sample of 1500


students will give a result within 2 percentage points of
this true value?
We have an SRS of size n = 1500 drawn from a population
in which the proportion p = 0.35 attend college within 50
miles of home.
 pˆ 0.35 (0.35)(0.65)
 pˆ  0.0123
1500
Conditions:
Independence: It is reasonable to assume that there are
 more than 15,000
college freshmen and therefore the
sample represents less than 10% of the population.
Normality: Additionally, np = 1500(0.35) = 525 and n(1 – p)
= 1500(0.65)=975 are both greater than 10, so it is
reasonable to assume normality.
Normalcdf (0.33, 0.37, 0.35, 0.0123) = 0.896054

CONCLUDE: There is an 89.61% chance that the sample will yield


results within 2 percentage points of the true value.
The Harvard College Alcohol Study finds that 67% of college
students support efforts to “crack down on underage drinking.”
The study took a random sample of almost 15,000 students, so
the population proportion who support a crackdown is close to p
= 0.67. The administration of a local college surveys an SRS of 100
students and finds that 62 support a crackdown on underage
drinking. Suppose that the proportion of all students attending
this college who support a crackdown is 67%, the same as the
national proportion.

What is the probability that the proportion in an SRS of


100 students is as small as or smaller than the result of
the administration’s sample?
(0.67)(0.33)
 pˆ 0.67  pˆ  0.04702
100

Conditions:
Independence: It is reasonable to assume that there are
more than 1000 college freshmen and therefore the
sample represents less than 10% of the population.
Normality: Additionally, np = 100(0.67) = 67and n(1 – p) =
100(0.33)= 33 are both greater than 10, so it is reasonable
to assume normality.
Normalcdf (0, 0.62, 0.67, 0.04702) = 0.143805

Be sure to include labels!

CONCLUDE: There is an 14.38% chance that the sample will yield


results at or below 62% given that the true population
proportions is 67%
FYI: Derivation of Formulas pˆ
In Chapter 6, we learned that the mean and standard deviation of a binomial
random variable X are

 X np X  np(1  p)


Since pˆ X /n (1/n) X, we are just multiplying the random variable X
by a constant (1/n) to get the random variable pˆ . Therefore,
 
1
 pˆ  (np) p pˆ is an unbiased estimator or p
n

1  np(1  p) p(1  p)
 pˆ  np(1  p)  2 
n n n
As sample size increases, the spread decreases.

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