Conditional

probability and
independent events

Dr. Mahmoud Abd

El-Raouf
Types of events
 Mutual Exclusive Events:
Both A and B cannot occur in the same time.
A and B are disjoint.

 Independent:
Independent events that event not affected by each other, which mean that the probability
of occurring of one event does not depend on the probability of the other event.

𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) 𝑷 (𝑩) 𝑷 (𝑪)
 dependent: It is the probability of an event given that anther event had happened:

𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩) =𝑷 ( 𝑩| 𝑨 ) 𝑷 ( 𝑨 )
Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of A given B, denoted P(A|B), is the probability that event A has
occurred in a trial of a random experiment for which it is known that event B has definitely
occurred.
𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩)
𝑷 ( 𝑨|𝑩 )=
𝑷 ( 𝑩)
Example 1: Let A and B events with P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 1/3 and Find,, and

Solution:  P A  B  P ( A)  P ( B )  P A  B 
7 1 1 1 1 7 1
    PA  B    
P AB    
12 2 3 2 3 12 4
Conditional Probability
Example 1: Let A and B events with P(A) = 1/2, P(B) = 1/3 and Find,, and

Solution:
PA  B  1 / 4 3
 P( A / B)   
P( B) 1/ 3 4

P( A / B) 

P AB 
P(B)

P( A / B) 

P AB


P( B)  PA  B  1 / 3  1 / 4 1 / 12 1
  
P(B) P( B) 1/ 3 1/ 3 4

P( A / B) 

P AB  
1  PA  B 

1  7 / 12 5 / 12 5
 
P(B) 1  P( B) 1 1/ 3 2/3 8
Conditional Probability
Example 2: Find P(B/A) in the following cases
a- A and B are of mutually exclusive events

PA  B  0 PA  B  0
 P ( B / A)   0
P( A) P ( A)

b- A is subset of B
PA  B  P( A)
PA  B  P ( A)  P( B / A)   1
P( A) P( A)

c- A is subset of B

PA  B  P ( B)
PA  B  P (B )  P ( B / A)  
P( A) P ( A)
Conditional Probability
Example 3: In a certain college 25% of the students failed mathematics, 15% of the students failed
chemistry and 10% of the students failed both mathematics and chemistry. A student is selected at
random:
a. If the student passes Math., what is the probability that he also passes Chemistry?
b. If the student failed chemistry, what is the probability that he passes Math.?
c. What is the probability that he passed one and only one course?
Solution: let the probability the student failed math t
let the probability the student failed chemistry t
let the probability the student failed both math and chemistry
t

By using

0 .9=0.75 +0.85 − P ( M ∩ 𝐶) Then

Conditional Probability
, ,
a. If the student passes Math., what is the probability that he also passes Chemistry?
PC  M  0.70
P(C / M )  ¿
P( M ) 0.75

b. If the student failed chemistry, what is the probability that he passes Math.?

P( M / C ) 

P M C


P( M )  PM  C  0.75 − 0.7 0.05 1
¿ = =
P(C ) 1  P(C ) 1 −0.85 0.15 3
c. What is the probability that he passed one and only one course?

P ( M  C )  P (C  M ) P ( M )  P M  C   P (C )  P M  C 

P ( M )  P (C )  P M  C   P M  C 
¿ 𝑃 ( 𝑀 ∪ 𝐶 ) − 𝑃 ( 𝑀 ∩ 𝐶 ) =0.9 − 0.7=0.2
Conditional Probability

Example 4: A number is selected at random from {1, 2, . . ., 100}. Given that the number
selected is divisible by 2, find the probability that it is divisible by 3.
Solution:
100 50
Divisible by 2 50  P ( A) 
2 100

100 33
Divisible by 3 33  P( B) 
3 100

100 16
Divisible by 6 16  P( A  B) 
6 100
(2 and 3)
PA  B  16 / 100 8
P( B / A)   
P( A) 50 / 100 25
Conditional Probability
Example 5: Let A and B events with P(A) = , P(AUB) = and P(B) = p

a. If A and B are Mutual Exclusive Events

By using
1 1 1
P ( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B )    p  p
3 4 12
b. If A and B are Independent 𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩) =𝑷 ( 𝑨 ) 𝑷 ( 𝑩 )
1 1 1 3 1 1
P ( A  B ) P ( A)  P ( B )  P ( A) P ( B )    p p  p  p
3 4 4 4 12 9

c. If A is a subset of B  A  B  P ( A  B ) P ( A)
1
P ( A  B ) P ( B )  p
3
independent events
Example 6: A box contains 8 red, 3 white and 9 blue balls. If 3 balls are drawn at random without
replacement, determine the probability that
8 7 6 14
a) all 3 are red, P ( R  R  R ) P ( R ) P ( R ) P ( R )  * * 
20 19 18 285

b) all 3 are white P (W  W  W ) P (W ) P (W ) P (W )  3 * 2 * 1  1

20 19 18 1140

c) 2 are red and 1 is blue P ( R  R  B )  P ( R  B  R )  P ( B  R  R )

 8 7 9 8 9 7 8 7 9
 * *    * *    9 * 8 * 7  3 * *   21
 20 19 18   20 19 18   20 19 18   20 19 18  95

d) One of each color is drawn. P ( R  W  B )  P ( R  B  W )  P (W  R  B )

 P (W  B  R)  P( B  R  W )  P( B  W  R )

¿ 3 ! 𝑃 ( 𝑅 ∩𝑊 ∩ 𝐵) ¿ 6
8
(
∗
3
∗
20 19 18
9
) ¿
18
95
independent events
Example 6: A box contains 8 red, 3 white and 9 blue balls. If 3 balls are drawn at random
without replacement, determine the probability that
e) at least 1 is white
One white ball
+ 2 white ball
+ 3 white ball ?????

1  P (W  W  W ) 1  P (W ) P (W ) P (W )
 17 16 15  23
1   * * 
 20 19 18  57
independent events
Example 6: Three men, and fire at a target. Suppose, , denote their probabilities of hitting the target.

A. Find the probability that they all hit the target

𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪¿) ⅙ × ⅓¿ 𝟏 /𝟕𝟐
×¼
B. Find the probability that they all miss the target
¿ 𝟑𝟎/𝟕𝟐=𝟓/𝟏𝟐
𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) ¿ ⅚× ¾× ⅔
C. Find the probability that only one of them hits the target.
𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) +𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) +𝑷 ( 𝑨∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 )
¿ ( ⅙ ×¾ ×⅔+)( ⅚ × ¼× ⅔+) ( ⅚ × ¾× ⅓¿) 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟐𝟒
D. Find the probability that at least one of them hits the target

𝑃 ( 𝐴∪ 𝐵 ∪𝐶 ) ¿ 1 − 𝑷 ( 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩∩ 𝑪 ) ¿ 𝟎 . 𝟓𝟖
Conditional Probability & independent events
Example 7: The probability that three men hit a target is respectively , and each shoots once at the
target.

a. Find the probability that exactly one of them hits the target.

P( M 1  M 2  M 3 )  P( M 1  M 2  M 3 )  P( M 1  M 2  M 3 )

1 25 315 323 43
   
4 38 438 4 38 96

b. If only one hit the target, what is the probability that it was the first man?
 1 2 5
 
 
P ( M 1  M 2  M 3 ) / only one 
P( M 1  M 2  M 3 )
P only one 

4 3
43
8  10
43
96
 Good luck
Dr. Mahmoud Abd
El-Raouf