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Block 02 Rel 14 Introductory Forecast Part 2

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23 views17 pages

Block 02 Rel 14 Introductory Forecast Part 2

Uploaded by

muyiwa07
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Introductory Forecasting Part 2

Handling exceptions and reporting facilities


Handling Leastsquares Exceptions
Edit History Length REFERHISTORY,
& LEASTSQUARES LEASTSQUARES
or SCALING
Straight line
model Add Plug Level AMR[;23]
Edit Demand History or
& LEASTSQUARES

SE
& LEASTSQUARES No

EL

PAR
One-off Statis-

LU
event(s) - tical or Add M.I &

MP
RT Y

ELS
ignored ELO O R model FUTURE-MODEL
UTL LSH STO
I ER E H I

Change LEVEL - E LN
Model M OD E OF
& TREND based EL ANG IT

EL
EV
H
on data C

AL
or Change History EG L Check that by-pass flag
LTI
Length since
is still valid
ELN

change
ME
& LEASTSQUARES
orSCALING
or Model trending
Switch on Non Event to zero
Flag & LSQ
Change LEVEL & TREND or
Change History Length & LEASTSQUARES
Models for New Products

Technique Function

Use history of preceding product(s) REFERHISTORY

Use forecast model from a reference product SCALING

Create a manual forecast and convert into a Add M.I & use FUTURE
model MODEL

The mean squared error is estimated by reference to a


relationship stored in the database
Referhistory

COPY
AND Discontinued Item
SCALE
HISTORY

Introduced Item
Scaling

COPY
AND
Existing range item SCALE
MODEL

New range item


Futuremodel

No history, reference history or


reference forecast available

Enter market intelligence or a


combination of model and MI
then convert into integral model
Variance Law

• Variance Law is specific to each range


of SKU’s by account.

• Relationship between the Mean Square


Error and the level coefficient for real
SKU’s

• Used to initialise statistics


for items with inadequate history.
Statistical estimates - new items

* *
1000000
Estimated
MSE * *
*
* *
100000
*
* *
Mean Square Error (MSE)

10000
*
*
*** *
100
* Initial monthly

1
* selling level

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000


Level
Flexible selection

• All items
• Part Number
• File Index Number
• List
• Filter
• Sort
Flexible Reviews

• Grouping

• Weighting
– Master Record fields
– Account master record fields
– Time phased weightings

• Summarising
Fouryear - reporting options

Group by - Part Number


Print Break Point Totals
Print Product Details 
Print Account Details 
Print Totals Across Accounts

Item 1@ Acct 1 Item 2@ Acct 1 Item 3@ Acct 1


Item 1@ Acct 2 Item 2@ Acct 2 Item 3@ Acct 2
Item 1@ Acct 3 Item 2@ Acct 3 Item 3@ Acct 3
Fouryear - reporting options

Group by - Part Number


Print Break Point Totals
Print Product Details 
Print Account Details 
Print Totals Across Accounts 

Item 1@ Item 1@ Item 1@ Item 1@


Acct 1 Acct 2 Acct 3 Accts 1,2,3
Item 2@ Item 2@ Item 2@ Item 2@
Acct 1 Acct 2 Acct 3 Accts 1,2,3
Item 3@ Item 3@ Item 3@ Item 3@
Acct 1 Acct 2 Acct 3 Accts 1,2,3
Fouryear - reporting options

Group by - Part Number


Print Break Point Totals
Print Product Details 
Print Account Details
Print Totals Across Accounts 

Item 1@
Accts 1,2,3
Item 2@
Accts 1,2,3
Item 3@
Accts 1,2,3
Items 1,2,3@
Accts 1,2,3
Fouryear - reporting options

Group by - Product line


Print Break Point Totals 
Print Product Details
Print Account Details
Print Totals Across Accounts 

Group 1@
Accts 1,2,3
Group 2@
Accts 1,2,3
Group 3@
Accts 1,2,3
Groups 1,2,3
@ Accts 1,2,3
Fouryear - reporting options

Group by - Part Number


Print Break Point Totals 
Print Product Details 
Print Account Details 
Print Totals Across Accounts

Item 1@ Item 1@ Item 1@


Acct 1 Acct 2 Acct 3
Item 2@ Item 2@ Item 2@
Acct 1 Acct 2 Acct 3
Item 3@ Item 3@ Item 3@
Acct 1 Acct 2 Acct 3
Items 1,2,3 Items 1,2,3 Items 1,2,3
@ Acct 1 @ Acct 2 @ Acct 3
Fouryear - reporting options

Group by - Product line


Print Break Point Totals 
Print Product Details 
Print Account Details 
Print Totals Across Accounts

Group 1@ Group 1@ Group 1@


Acct 1 Acct 2 Acct 3
Group 2@ Group 2@ Group 2@
Acct 1 Acct 2 Acct 3
Group 3@ Group 3@ Group 3@
Acct 1 Acct 2 Acct 3
Groups 1,2,3 Groups 1,2,3 Groups 1,2,3
@ Acct 1 @ Acct 2 @ Acct 3
Fouryear - reporting options

Group by - Product Line


Print Break Point Totals 
Print Product Details
Print Account Details
Print Totals Across Accounts 

Group 1@
Accts 1,2,3
Group 2@
Accts 1,2,3
Group 3@
Accts 1,2,3
Groups 1,2,3
@Accts 1,2,3

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