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Introduction To Bayes Theorem

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13 views8 pages

Introduction To Bayes Theorem

Uploaded by

ansarimdarsh3426
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Introduction to

Bayes Theorem
Bayes' Theorem is a fundamental concept in probability and statistics that
describes the likelihood of an event occurring based on prior knowledge of
the conditions that might be related to that event. It provides a way to
update beliefs or probabilities as new information becomes available.

by arsh ansari
Conditional Probability
Definition Example Notation

Conditional probability is the likelihood The probability of rain given that it's Conditional probability is denoted as
of an event occurring given that another cloudy is an example of conditional P(A|B), which reads "the probability of A
event has already occurred. probability. given B".
Bayes' Theorem Formula
Numerator Result
The numerator is the product of the prior probability of the hypothesis and the The final result is the posterior probability of the hypothesis given the evidence.
likelihood of the evidence given the hypothesis.

1 2 3

Denominator
The denominator is the total probability of the evidence, which is the sum of the
products of the prior probabilities of each hypothesis and their likelihoods.
Applying Bayes' Theorem
Step 1 Step 2
Identify the relevant hypotheses and the available evidence. Determine the prior probabilities of the hypotheses and the
likelihood of the evidence given each hypothesis.

Step 3 Step 4
Apply the Bayes' Theorem formula to calculate the posterior Interpret the results and make a decision or prediction based on
probabilities of the hypotheses. the updated probabilities.
Prior and Posterior Probabilities
Prior Probability Posterior Probability Relationship

The initial belief or understanding of the The updated probability of a hypothesis Bayes' Theorem allows us to transform
probability of a hypothesis before after considering the new evidence, prior probabilities into posterior
considering any new evidence. calculated using Bayes' Theorem. probabilities based on the available
evidence.
Frequentist vs. Bayesian
Approaches

1 Frequentist 2 Bayesian
Focuses on the long-run Considers probabilities as
frequency of events, subjective beliefs that can be
considering probabilities as updated as new information
fixed, objective quantities. becomes available.

3 Perspective
Bayesian approach is more flexible and allows for a more nuanced
understanding of probabilities.
Applications of Bayes' Theorem

Medical Diagnosis
Estimating the probability of a patient having a disease given their symptoms and test results.

Spam Filtering
Classifying emails as spam or non-spam based on the presence of certain keywords or patterns.

Weather Forecasting
Updating the probability of rain or other weather events based on current meteorological data.
Conclusion and Key
Takeaways
Powerful Concept
Bayes' Theorem is a powerful tool for updating probabilities
based on new evidence.

Diverse Applications
It has a wide range of applications in fields such as medicine,
technology, and decision-making.

Continuous Learning
The Bayesian approach encourages a continuous updating of
beliefs as new information becomes available.

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