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2.05 The Demographic Transition Model

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22 views18 pages

2.05 The Demographic Transition Model

Uploaded by

ik2mmm4w
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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2.

5 The
Demographic
Transition Model
Objective and Essential Learning

2.5 Explain theories of population growth &


decline.
● The demographic transition model can be used to explain population change over time.
● The epidemiological transition explains causes of changing death rates.

2.8 Explain how the changing role of females has


demographic consequences in different parts of
the world.
● Changing social values and access to education, employment, health care, and contraception
have reduced fertility rates in most parts of the world.
● Changing social, economic, and political roles for females have influenced patterns of fertility,
mortality...
2
The Demographic Transition Model
▪ Demography: The study of
population statistics.

▪ Demographic Transition
Model (DTM): Model used by
geographers to analyze and
predict trends in population
Very low

Stable or decreasing

growth and decline including


patterns of births, deaths and
natural increase rates.
3
The Demographic Transition Model
▪ Epidemiological Transition Model (ETM): Predictable stages in
disease and life expectancy that countries experience as they
develop which corresponds with the stages of the DTM.

4
Take a moment to annotate the essential aspects of the DTM model
with different colors. You should annotate:
● Birth Rate
● Death Rate
● Natural Increase
● Total Population 5
Characteristics of Stage One
Reasons for CBR
● High TFR because children are not
likely to survive long-term -> High IMR
& CMR.
● Need for child labor in agricultural
soceities.

Reasons for CDR


● Short life expectancy
● Famine, poor diet, inadequate housing,
disease, warfare
Natural Increase Rate
● Low growth

Examples: No countries are in this stage.


Historic stage. 6
Characteristics of Stage
Two
Reasons for CBR
● Remains the same as
previous stage

Reasons for CDR


● Still a low life expectancy,
but…
● Improved nutrition,
sanitation and medicines.

Natural Increase Rate: Rapid


growth

Examples: LDCs, Niger, Mali, 7


South Sudan
Characteristics of Stage
Three
Reasons for CBR
● Urbanization reduces
the need for child labor
- children $$, smaller
living spaces.
● Increase in healthcare,
female employment
and education

Reasons for CDR


● Life expectancy
increases due to the
progression of
advancements from 8
previous stage.
Characteristics of Stage
Three
Examples: Many Semi-
Periphery countries like
Turkey, Mexico,
Indonesia, India

Population Composition:
Society is still young, but
there are more people
surviving longer.

9
Characteristics of Stage Four

Reasons for CBR


● Same as previous stage.

Reasons for CDR


● Life expectancy continues to increase.

Natural Increase Rate: Falls and then


stabilizes at low growth.
Very low

Examples: Majority of MDCs- China,


Australia, Canada, South Korea, US Stable or decreasing

Population Composition: Beginning to shift


to elderly dependency.
10
Characteristics of Stage Five
Reasons for CBR
● Replacement level (TFR: 2.1) OR
● Zero Population Growth (ZPG)

Reasons for CDR


● Most medically advanced

Natural Increase Rate: Negative or very low.


Very low

Examples: Japan, Germany Negative or very low

Population Composition: Most likely to have a


high elderly dependency ratio.
11
Very low

Stable or decreasing

12
Pestilence
& Famine

Infectious
Diseases
- Cholera
- Tuberculosis

Pandemics &
Epidemics

Animal Attacks &


Accidents

Malnutrition

13
Receding
Pandemics

Pandemics and
infectious
diseases
decline due to
new medical
advances,
sanitation and
improved
nutrition.

14
Degenerativ
e & Human
Made
Diseases
Diseases
associated with
aging and
lifestyle choices
- Heart Disease
- Cancer

15
Delayed
Degenerative
Diseases

Diseases associated
with aging and
lifestyle choices can
be delayed with
medical
advancements.

Alzheimer's
Dementia

16
Reemergen
ce of
Infectious
Diseases
Bacteria and
parasites
become
resistant to
antibiotics
and vaccines.

Reemergence
of infectious
diseases.

Ebola
COVID-19

17
Objective and Essential Learning

2.5 Explain theories of population growth &


decline.
● The demographic transition model can be used to explain population change over
time.
● The epidemiological transition explains causes of changing death rates.

18

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