Slides Prepared by

JOHN S. LOUCKS
St. Edward’s University

© 2003 Thomson/South-Western 1
 Chapter 6
Continuous Probability Distributions
 Uniform Probability Distribution
 Normal Probability Distribution
 Exponential Probability Distribution
f(x)

x


© 2003 Thomson/South-Western 2
 Continuous Probability Distributions

 A continuous random variable can assume any

value in an interval on the real line or in a
collection of intervals.
 It is not possible to talk about the probability of
the random variable assuming a particular value.
 Instead, we talk about the probability of the
random variable assuming a value within a given
interval.
 The probability of the random variable assuming
a value within some given interval from x1 to x2 is
defined to be the area under the graph of the
probability density function between x1 and x2.

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 Uniform Probability Distribution

 A random variable is uniformly distributed

whenever the probability is proportional to the
interval’s length.
 Uniform Probability Density Function

f(x) = 1/(b - a) for a < x <

b
=0 elsewhere

where: a = smallest value the variable can

assume
b = largest value the variable can
assume

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 Uniform Probability Distribution

 Expected Value of x

E(x) = (a + b)/2
 Variance of x

Var(x) = (b - a)2/12

where: a = smallest value the variable can

assume
b = largest value the variable can
assume

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 Example: Slater's Buffet

 Uniform Probability Distribution

Slater customers are charged for the
amount of salad they take. Sampling suggests
that the amount of salad taken is uniformly
distributed between 5 ounces and 15 ounces.
The probability density function is
f(x) = 1/10 for 5 < x < 15
= 0 elsewhere
where:
x = salad plate filling weight

© 2003 Thomson/South-Western 6
 Example: Slater's Buffet

 Uniform Probability Distribution

for Salad Plate Filling Weight

f(x)

1/10

x
5 10 15
Salad Weight (oz.)

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 Example: Slater's Buffet

 Uniform Probability Distribution

What is the probability that a customer
will take between 12 and 15 ounces of
salad?
f(x)

P(12 < x < 15) = 1/10(3) = .3

1/10

x
5 10 12 15
Salad Weight (oz.)

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 Example: Slater's Buffet

 Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
= (5 + 15)/2
= 10
 Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
= (15 – 5)2/12
= 8.33

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 Normal Probability Distribution

 The normal probability distribution is the most

important distribution for describing a
continuous random variable.
 It has been used in a wide variety of
applications:
• Heights and weights of people
• Test scores
• Scientific measurements
• Amounts of rainfall
 It is widely used in statistical inference

© 2003 Thomson/South-Western 10
 Normal Probability Distribution

 Normal Probability Density Function

1  ( x   )2 / 2 2
f ( x)  e
2 

where:
 = mean
 = standard deviation
 = 3.14159
e= 2.71828

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 Normal Probability Distribution

 Graph of the Normal Probability Density

Function
f(x)

x


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 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics of the Normal Probability

Distribution
• The distribution is symmetric, and is often
illustrated as a bell-shaped curve.
• Two parameters,  (mean) and  (standard
deviation), determine the location and shape
of the distribution.
• The highest point on the normal curve is at
the mean, which is also the median and mode.
• The mean can be any numerical value:
negative, zero, or positive.
… continued

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 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics of the Normal Probability

Distribution
• The standard deviation determines the
width of the curve: larger values result in
wider, flatter curves.
 = 10

 = 50

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 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics of the Normal Probability

Distribution
• The total area under the curve is 1 (.5 to the
left of the mean and .5 to the right).
• Probabilities for the normal random variable
are given by areas under the curve.

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 Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics of the Normal Probability

Distribution
• 68.26% of values of a normal random
variable are within +/- 1 standard
deviation of its mean.
• 95.44% of values of a normal random
variable are within +/- 2 standard
deviations of its mean.
• 99.72% of values of a normal random
variable are within +/- 3 standard
deviations of its mean.

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 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

 A random variable that has a normal

distribution with a mean of zero and a standard
deviation of one is said to have a standard
normal probability distribution.
 The letter z is commonly used to designate this
normal random variable.
 Converting to the Standard Normal Distribution
x 
z

 We can think of z as a measure of the number
of standard deviations x is from .

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 Example: Pep Zone

 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies including a
popular multi-grade motor oil. When the stock of this
oil drops to 20 gallons, a replenishment order is placed.
The store manager is concerned that sales are being
lost due to stockouts while waiting for an order. It has
been determined that leadtime demand is normally
distributed with a mean of 15 gallons and a standard
deviation of 6 gallons.
The manager would like to know the probability of a
stockout, P(x > 20).

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 Example: Pep Zone

 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

The Standard Normal table shows an area
of .2967 for the region between the z = 0 and
z = .83 lines below. The shaded tail area is .5
- .2967 = .2033. The probability of a stock-
out is .2033.
z = (x - )/ Area = .2967
= (20 - 15)/6
= .83 Area = .5 - .2967
= .2033

Area = .5
z
0 .83
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 Example: Pep Zone

 Using the Standard Normal Probability Table

z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199 .0239 .0279 .0319 .0359
.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596 .0636 .0675 .0714 .0753
.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987 .1026 .1064 .1103 .1141
.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 .1517
.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879

.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088 .2123 .2157 .2190 .2224
.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422 .2454 .2486 .2518 .2549
.7 .2580 .2612 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734 .2764 .2794 .2823 .2852
.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023 .3051 .3078 .3106 .3133
.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389

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 Example: Pep Zone

 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

If the manager of Pep Zone wants the
probability of a stockout to be no more
than .05, what should the reorder point be?

Area = .05

Area = .5Area = .45

0 z.05
Let z.05 represent the z value cutting the .05 tail
area.
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 Example: Pep Zone

 Using the Standard Normal Probability Table

We now look-up the .4500 area in the
Standard Normal Probability table to find the
corresponding z.05 value.
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
1.5 .4332 .4345 .4357 .4370 .4382 .4394 .4406 .4418 .4429 .4441
1.6 .4452 .4463 .4474 .4484 .4495 .4505 .4515 .4525 .4535 .4545
1.7 .4554 .4564 .4573 .4582 .4591 .4599 .4608 .4616 .4625 .4633
1.8 .4641 .4649 .4656 .4664 .4671 .4678 .4686 .4693 .4699 .4706
1.9 .4713 .4719 .4726 .4732 .4738 .4744 .4750 .4756 .4761 .4767
. . . . . . . . . . .

z.05 = 1.645 is a reasonable estimate.

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 Example: Pep Zone

 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

The corresponding value of x is given by
x =  + z.05
= 15 + 1.645(6)
= 24.87
A reorder point of 24.87 gallons will
place the probability of a stockout during
leadtime at .05. Perhaps Pep Zone should set
the reorder point at 25 gallons to keep the
probability under .05.

© 2003 Thomson/South-Western 23
 Exponential Probability Distribution

 The exponential probability distribution is

useful in describing the time it takes to
complete a task.
 The exponential random variables can be used
to describe:
• Time between vehicle arrivals at a toll booth
• Time required to complete a questionnaire
• Distance between major defects in a
highway

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 Exponential Probability Distribution

 Exponential Probability Density Function

1
f ( x )  e x / for x > 0,  > 0


where:  = mean
e = 2.71828

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 Exponential Probability Distribution

 Cumulative Exponential Distribution Function

P ( x  x0 ) 1  e  xo / 

where:
x0 = some specific value of x

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 Example: Al’s Carwash

 Exponential Probability Distribution

The time between arrivals of cars at Al’s
Carwash follows an exponential probability
distribution with a mean time between arrivals
of 3 minutes. Al would like to know the
probability that the time between two
successive arrivals will be 2 minutes or less.

P(x < 2) = 1 - 2.71828-2/3 = 1 - .5134

= .4866

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 Example: Al’s Carwash

 Graph of the Probability Density Function

f(x)

.4
.3 P(x < 2) = area = .4866
.2
.1
x
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time Between Successive Arrivals (mins.)

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 Relationship between the Poisson
and Exponential Distributions

(If) the Poisson distribution

provides an appropriate description
of the number of occurrences
per interval

(If) the exponential distribution

provides an appropriate description
of the length of the interval
between occurrences

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 End of Chapter 6

© 2003 Thomson/South-Western 30