BS Geography

Department of Earth Sciences

Lecture 3
NATURAL HAZARDS AND
DISASTER MANAGEMENT

Element at Risk Mapping:

Vulnerability Assessment
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Vulnerability is defined as set of conditions, a
measure of the resistance, and resilience
against the impact of hazards or stresses.
 The vulnerability is the extent to which a
community, structure, services or geographic
area is likely to be damaged by the purticular
hazard.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Disasters result from vulnerable conditions being
exposed to a potential hazard.
 The first step in taking any mitigation measures
is to assess the hazard.
 Hazard assessment aims to come to grips with:
– the nature, severity, and frequency of the hazard;
– the area likely to be affected; and
– the time and duration of impact.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Hazard assessment concerns the properties of
the hazard itself i.e.,
– cyclone,
– flood,
– drought,
– earthquake,
– volcanic eruption, etc.
and its direct effect, not its effect on the
socioeconomic environment which is covered by
vulnerability analysis.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 It can be categorized into;
– Physical vulnerability
 it relates to buildings, infrastructure, and agriculture
– Socio-economic vulnerability
 it focuses on direct and indirect loss potential
 Vulnerability depends on exposure to the
consequences of uncertainty or potential
deviations from what is planned or expected
(disruption to everyday life).
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Physical vulnerability
– vulnerability of buildings, infrastructure, and
agriculture is that
 buildings is affected by their site, design, shape, materials
used, construction techniques, maintenance, and proximity
of buildings to others
– the weighing attached to each factor will vary
according to the type of hazard encountered
– different hazards produce different forces affecting
structures
– The vulnerability of infrastructure is also specific,
depending on the type of hazard.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
– Infrastructure may be considered in three broad
groups;
 transport systems (roads, railways, bridges, airports, port
facilities);
 utilities (water, sewerage, and electricity); and
 telecommunications.
 hazard protection measures such as flood embankments are
also considered part of the infrastructure once they have
been installed
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Socio-economic vulnerability
– A general methodology to measure social vulnerability
is focusing on:
 special categories of vulnerable groups;
 livelihoods at risk;
 perception of risk;
 existence of local institutions; and
 level of poverty
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
– the following groups of people are particularly at risk
and require special attention:
 single parent families;
 women;
 mentally and physically handicapped people;
 children; and
 the elderly.
– economic vulnerability measures the risk of hazards
causing losses to economic assets and processes.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Hazard assessment begins with:
– data collection;
– existing assessments and hazard maps;
– scientific data
 meteorological,
 hydrological,
 seismological,
 volcanological, etc.
– other maps (topographical, geological, etc.);
– local knowledge and historical records; and
– socioeconomic or agricultural surveys
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 The data are then analyzed.
 One effective way of presenting hazard
assessment is through hazard mapping.
 Hazard maps can be of macro or micro scale;
– for cyclones
 cyclone track maps,
 wind velocity zoning maps, and
 cyclone/storm surge hazard maps
– for floods
 inundation maps
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
– for earthquake and tsunami
 epicentral maps, seismic zoning maps, seismic zone source
maps, tsunami hazard maps
– and for landslides
 landslide hazard maps
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Data and maps are analyzed to arrive at the
hazard assessment.
 The level of sophistication of hazard assessment
depend on the perception of risk and available
resources.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 After establishing the space/time/intensity
dimensions of hazard incidence as well as its
general characteristics, the vulnerability analysis
is conducted to identify the vulnerable conditions
exposed to natural hazards.
 If an area is exposed to multiple hazards,
vulnerability analysis should be carried out for
each type of hazard.
 Like hazards themselves, vulnerabilities can be
conveniently depicted on maps, either as a
single vulnerability map for each type of hazard
or as a multi-hazard vulnerability overlay.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 In general, vulnerability analysis provides
information on:
– the sectors at risk:
 physical (buildings, infrastructure, critical facilities,
agriculture);
 social (vulnerable groups, livelihoods, perception of risk,
local institutions, poverty);
 economic (direct losses, indirect losses);
– the type of risk (damage to public infrastructure,
production facilities, housing, or casualties)
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Vulnerability analysis results in an understanding
of the level of exposure of persons and property
to the various natural hazards identified.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Different studies reveal that the results of the
vulnerability assessments vary significantly
within the same conceptual framework for
analysis.
 The challenges associated with vulnerability
mapping are;
– absence of best practices,
– scales of assessment and data availability and
– management of uncertainties
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Four major indicators can be used for
vulnerability assessment:
– availability
– accessibility
– utilisation &
– entitlement
 Different indices based on meteorological data,
hydrological data, vegetation data and socio
economic data etc. are used globally for hazard
mapping, monitoring and risk assessment.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 It is important for development planners to make
some effort to quantify the vulnerability and loss
to assist mitigation and preparedness planning.
 The principal elements are:
 Floods
– Everything located in flood plains or tsunami areas.
Crops, livestock, machinery, equipment,
infrastructure, weak buildings.
 Earthquakes
– Weak buildings and their occupants. Machinery and
equipment, infrastructure, livestock, contents of weak
buildings.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Volcanic eruption
– Anything close to volcano. Crops, livestock, people,
combustible roofs, water supply.
 Land instability
– Anything located on or at base of steep slopes or cliff
tops, roads and infrastructure, buildings on shallow
foundations.
 Strong winds
– Lightweight buildings and roofs. Fences, trees, signs.
Boats, fishing and coastal industries.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Drought / desertification
– Crops and livestock. Agricultural livelihoods. Peoples'
health.
 Technological disasters
– Lives and health of those involved or in the vicinity.
– Buildings, equipment, infrastructure, crops and
livestock.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Vulnerability can be quantified as the degree of
loss to a given element at risk (or set of
elements) resulting from a given hazard at a
given severity level.
 The vulnerability of an element is usually
expressed as a percentage loss (or as a value
between 0 and 1) for a given hazard severity
level.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 The measure of loss used depends on the
element at risk, and accordingly may be
measured as a ratio of the numbers of killed or
injured to the total population, as a repair cost or
as the degree of physical damage defined on an
appropriate scale.
 In a large number of elements, like building
stock, it may be defined in terms of the
proportion of buildings experiencing particular
level of damage.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 The interaction among nature, society, and
technology at a variety of spatial scales creates
a mosaic of risks that affect places and the
people who live there.
 It is important to understand the merits and
limitations of the different tools, techniques and
methods while using the indices.
 Selection of various indices for analysis shall be
based on the purpose, availability of data and
hazard typology.
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 A careful evaluation of the disaster event should
be conducted.
– Were the plans thorough and appropriate or did gaps
become apparent?
– Can additional targets for mitigation be identified in
hopes of preventing or reducing harm from a repeat
event?
– Were the response and recovery efforts carried out as
planned, or were there lapses in communication or
other problems of implementation?
 Element at Risk Mapping -
Vulnerability Assessment
 Every aspect should be considered thoughtfully
and the conclusions should then be incorporated
into updated plans, completing the cycle.
 Damage Assessment
Loss Analysis
 Economic vulnerability measures the risk of
hazards causing losses to economic assets and
processes.
 Evaluation of direct loss potential
– Damage or destruction of physical and social
infrastructure and its repair or replacement cost, as
well as crop damage and losses to the means of
production
 Evaluation of indirect loss potential
– The impact on lost production, employment, vital
services, and income-earning activities
 Damage Assessment
Loss Analysis
 Evaluation of secondary effects
– epidemics, inflation, income disparities, and isolation
of outlying areas
 With the insights provided by economic
vulnerability analysis, it is possible to estimate
direct and indirect losses and to design ways
and means to mitigate them in relation to the
estimated costs of relief/recovery actions and
mitigation measures required.
 Damage Assessment
Loss Analysis
 The estimation of potential losses can be carried
out using various disaster scenarios based on
mild, average, or worst case assessment to
allow the authorities to gauge the scale of the
problem.
 Vulnerability depends on exposure to the
consequences of uncertainty or potential
deviations from what is planned or expected
(disruption to everyday life).
 Course content: The syllabus

4. Element at risk mapping - vulnerability

assessment.
5. Damage assessment, loss analysis.
6. Risk assessment techniques.
7. Hazard mitigation strategies & selection.
8. Types of disasters.
9. Risk assessment.