Statistics and Probability

What is probability?

• Probability is simply how likely something is to happen. It is a

mathematical way of calculating the certainty or uncertainty of an event
to occur. Whenever we are unsure about the outcome of an event, we
can talk about the probabilities of certain outcomes—how likely they
are. The analysis of events governed by probability is called statistics.

• .
 Probability and statistics, the branches of mathematics concerned with
the laws governing random events, including the collection, analysis,
interpretation, and display of numerical data. Probability has its origin in
the study of gambling and insurance in the 17th century, and it is now
an indispensable tool of both social and natural sciences. Statistics may
be said to have its origin in census counts taken thousands of years ago;
as a distinct scientific discipline, however, it was developed in the early
19th century as the study of populations, economies, and moral actions
and later in that century as the mathematical tool for analyzing such
numbers.
Characteristics

1. The probability of any event ranges from 0 to 1 or 100%. There is no

such thing as 101% probability or -1 probability.
2. If the event is very sure to occur, the probability is equal to 1 or 100%.
• Example:
- The event that the sun rises at the east
- If the object is thrown upward, the probability that it falls back
downward is 100%
3.If the event will never happen, the probability is zero.
• Example:
- The probability of dogs that can fly is 0%
- The event that a male person will conceive and deliver a baby has a 0%
probability.
4. The probability of success and probability of failure is equal to 1 or 100%
• Example:
- If the probability that it will rain today is 35%, the probability that it will
not rain is 65%.
- If the chances of AU team to be champion in this league is 80%, the
probability of not being the champion is 20%
Experiment is any activity that produces outcomes.
Probability is the likelihood of a particular outcome or
event happening. Statisticians and actuaries use
probability to make predictions about events. An
actuary that works for a car insurance company would,
for example, be interested in how likely a 17 year old
male would be to get in a car accident. They would use
data from past events to make predictions about future
events using the characteristics of probabilities, then use
this information to calculate an insurance rate.
Basic Concepts
If you roll a die, pick a card from deck of playing cards, or
randomly select a person and observe their hair color, you are
executing an experiment or procedure. In probability, we look at the
likelihood of different outcomes.
EVENTS AND OUTCOMES
 The result of an experiment is called an outcome.
 An event is any particular outcome or group of outcomes.
 A simple event is an event that cannot be broken down further
 The sample space is the set of all possible simple events.
Example 1:
If we roll a standard 6-sided die, describe the sample space and
some simple events.
Solution:
The sample space is the set of all possible simple events:
{1,2,3,4,5,6}
Some examples of simple events:
 We roll a 1
 We roll a 5
Some compound events:
 We roll a number bigger than 4
 We roll an even number
BASIC PROBABILITY
Given that all outcomes are equally likely, we can
compute the probability of an event E using this
formula:
P(E)=Number of outcomes corresponding to the
event
Total number of equally-likely outcomes

P(E)= n(E)/n(S)
Example 2:
If we roll a 6-sided die, calculate
P(rolling a 1)
P(rolling a number bigger than 4)
Solution:
Recall that the sample space is {1,2,3,4,5,6}
There is one outcome corresponding to “rolling a 1,” so
the probability is 1/6
There are two outcomes bigger than a 4, so the
probability is 2/6 =1/3
Probabilities are essentially fractions and can be
reduced to lower terms like fractions.
A standard deck of 52 playing cards consists of
four suits (hearts, spades, diamonds and clubs).
Spades and clubs are black while hearts and
diamonds are red. Each suit contains 13 cards, each
of a different rank: an Ace (which in many games
functions as both a low card and a high card), cards
numbered 2 through 10, a Jack, a Queen and a King.
Example 3:
Compute the probability of randomly drawing one card from a deck
and getting an Ace.
Solution:
There are 52 cards in the deck and 4 Aces
so P(Ace)=4/52=1/13≈0.0769
We can also think of probabilities as percents: There is a 7.69%
chance that a randomly selected card will be an Ace.
Notice that the smallest possible probability is 0, if there are no
outcomes that correspond with the event. The largest possible
probability is 1, if all possible outcomes correspond with the event.
CERTAIN AND IMPOSSIBLE EVENTS
-An impossible event has a probability of 0.
-A certain event has a probability of 1.
-The probability of any event must be 0≤
P(E) ≤1
 1. Complement Of an Event
The complement of an event is the event “E doesn’t happen”
 The notation Ē is used for the complement of event E.
 We can compute the probability of the complement
using P(Ē)=1−P(E)
 Notice also that P(E)=1−P(Ē)
Example 4:
If you pull a random card from a deck of playing cards, what is the probability
that it is not a heart?
Solution:
There are 13 hearts in the deck, so P(heart)=13/52=1/ 4.
The probability of not drawing a heart is the complement:
P(not heart)=1−P(heart)=1−1/4 = ¾
2. Probability of Two Independent Event
Events A and B are independent events if the probability of
Event B occurring is the same whether Event A occurs.
P(A AND B) FOR INDEPENDENT EVENTS
- If events A and B are independent, then the probability of
both A and B occurring is
P(A and B)=P(A)⋅P(B)

where P(A and B) is the probability of events A and B both

occurring, P(A) is the probability of event A occurring,
and P(B) is the probability of event B occurring
 Are these events independent?
1. A fair coin is tossed two times. The two events are (1) first toss is a head and (2)
second toss is a head.
2. The two events (1) “It will rain tomorrow in Houston” and (2) “It will rain tomorrow
in Galveston” (a city near Houston).
3. You draw a card from a deck, then draw a second card without replacing the first.
Solution:
1. The probability that a head comes up on the second toss is 1/2 regardless of
whether or not a head came up on the first toss, so these events are independent.
2. These events are not independent because it is more likely that it will rain in
Galveston on days it rains in Houston than on days it does not.
3. The probability of the second card being red depends on whether the first card is
red or not, so these events are not independent.
Example 5:
In your drawer you have 10 pairs of socks, 6 of which are
white, and 7 t-shirts, 3 of which are white. If you randomly
reach in and pull out a pair of socks and a t-shirt, what is the
probability that both are white?
Solution:
The probability of choosing a white pair of socks is 6/10.
The probability of choosing a white tshirt is 3/7.
The probability of both being white is 6/10⋅3/7=18/70=9/35
3. P(A or B)
The probability of either A or B occurring (or both) is
P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)–P(A and B)
Example 6:
Suppose we draw one card from a standard deck. What is the probability that we get a Queen or a
King?
Solution:
There are 4 Queens and 4 Kings in the deck, hence 8 outcomes corresponding to a Queen or King out
of 52 possible outcomes. Thus, the probability of drawing a Queen or a King is:
P(King or Queen)=4/52 + 4/52 – 0 = 8/52 = 2/13
Note that in this case, there are no cards that are both a Queen and a King, so P(King and Queen)=0
Using our probability rule, we could have said:
P(King or Queen)=P(King)+P(Queen)−P(King andQueen)=4/52+4/52−0=8/52 or 2/13
In this example, the events were mutually exclusive, so P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B).
Example 7:
Suppose we draw one card from a standard deck. What is the
probability that we get a red card or a King?
Solution:
Half the cards are red, so P(red)=26/52
There are four kings, so P(King)=4/52
There are two red kings, so P(Red and King)=2/52

We can then calculate

P(Red or King)=P(Red)+P(King)−P(Red and King)
=26/52+4/52−2/52=28/52 or 7/13
4. Conditional Probability
In the previous probability we computed the probabilities of events that were
independent of each other. We saw that getting a certain outcome from rolling a die had no
influence on the outcome from flipping a coin, even though we were computing a
probability based on doing them at the same time. In this probability, we will consider
events that are dependent on each other, called conditional probabilities.
The probability the event B occurs, given that event A has happened, is represented as
P(B|A) = P(B and A)/P(A)
This is read as “the probability of B given A”
If Events A and B are not independent, then
P(A and B) = P(A) · P(B|A)
Example 8:
It might seem that you could use the formula for the probability of two independent events and
simply multiply 4/52 . 4/52 = 1/169.
This would be incorrect, however, because the two events are not independent. If the first card
drawn is an ace, then the probability that the second card is also an ace would be lower because there
would only be three aces left in the deck.
Once the first card chosen is an ace, the probability that the second card chosen is also an ace is
called the conditional probability of drawing an ace. In this case the “condition” is that the first card is
an ace. Symbolically, we write this as:
P(ace on second draw | an ace on the first draw).
The vertical bar “|” is read as “given,” so the above expression is short for “The probability that an
ace is drawn on the second draw given that an ace was drawn on the first draw.” What is this
probability? After an ace is drawn on the first draw, there are 3 aces out of 51 total cards left. This
means that the conditional probability of drawing an ace after one ace has already been drawn
is 3/51=1/17.
Thus, the probability of both cards being aces is

4/52⋅3/51=12/2652=1/221.
ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS

 At some random moment, you look at your clock and note the minutes reading. (Show your
solution)

a. What is probability if the minutes reading is 15?

b. What is the probability if the minutes reading is 15 or less?

 What is the difference between conditional probability and independent probability? Explain by
giving an example.

 If you draw two cards from a deck, what is the probability that you will get the king of Diamonds
and a red card?