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Solar Power Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks

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7 views36 pages

Solar Power Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks

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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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You are on page 1/ 36

SOLAR POWER FORECASTING USING

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS


CONTENTS
01 Objectives 07 Proposed System

02 Abstract 08 Hardware and Software Requirement

03 Literature Survey 09 System Architecture

04 Social Relevance 10 Modules

05 Problem Statement 11 Implementation Details

06 Existing System 12 References


OBJECTIVES

Prediction of solar irradiation shows Propose an accurate prediction


some uncertainties depending on model to overcome uncertainty
atmospheric parameters such as conditions PV power generation
temperature, cloud amount, dust and
relative humidity.
ABSTRACT
In recent years, the rapid boost of variable energy generations particularly from wind and
solar energy resources in the power grid has led to these generations becoming a
noteworthy source of uncertainty with load behavior still being the main source of
variability. Generation and load balance is required in the economic scheduling of the
generating units and in electricity market trades. Energy forecasting can be used to
mitigate some of the challenges that arise from the uncertainty in the resource. Solar
power forecasting is witnessing a growing attention from the research community. The
work presents an artificial neural network model to produce solar power forecasts.
Sensitivity analysis of several input variables for best selection, and comparison of the
model performance with multiple linear regression and persistence models are also shown.
INTRODUCTION

Forecasting/unit Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet,
commitment for day ahead consectetur adipiscing elit, consectetur adipiscing elit,
system helps the generating sed do eiusmod tempor sed do eiusmod tempor
station engineer to properly incididunt ut labore et dolore incididunt ut labore et dolore
manage the power demand magna aliqua. magna aliqua.
and these by maintaining a
balance between the
generation and demand.
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-1
Title of the Paper Solar power forecasting using a hybrid EMD-ELM method
Authors and Publication Irani Majumder et al (IEEE)
Methodology A forecasting method has been mentioned that is
contingent on a hybrid empirical mode decomposition
(EMD) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM)
Merits Minimum computation
Demerits Less accuracy
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-2
Title of the Paper Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using Adaptive Neuro
Fuzzy Inference System
Authors and Publication Yash Pal et al (IEEE)
Methodology The ANFIS model (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference
Systems) is used to predict photovoltaic power.
Merits Higher accuracy
Demerits Algorithmic complexity
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-3
Title of the Paper A Solar Power Prediction Using Support Vector Machines
Based on Multi-source Data Fusion
Authors and Publication Wang Buwei et al (IEEE)
Methodology Support vector machine based on data fusion (SVM-DF)
is proposed to run as the main regression model.
Merits continuous space by identifying structures in the mapping
of input to output data
Demerits Larger training needed
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-4
Title of the Paper A Hadoop based weather prediction model for
classification of weather data.
Authors and Publication A. K. Pandey et al (IEEE)
Methodology Fuzzy logic (FL) and artificial neural network fuzzy
interface system (ANFIS) methods are investigated for
accurate prediction of weather data on the basis of mean
square error.
Merits Easy to compute
Demerits Higher MSE
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-5
Title of the Paper Improved ANN-based algorithm for detection and
classification of faults on transmission lines
Authors and Publication Farhana Fayaz et al (IEEE)
Methodology A feed forward ANN with six inputs and eleven outputs
has been developed for the detection and classification of
faults
Merits Easy to access
Demerits Higher MSE
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-6
Title of the Paper A hybrid deep learning model for short-term PV power
forecasting
Authors and Publication P. Li et al (Applied Energy)
Methodology Presented a hybrid deep learning model combining
wavelet packet decomposition (WPD) and LSTM
networks for one-hour-ahead PV power forecasting
Merits Accuracy
Demerits More time
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-7
Title of the Paper A Novel Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting
Approach based on Deep Convolutional Neural Network
Authors and Publication Korkmaz et al (IJGE)
Methodology used a deep CNN structure combining with Empirical
Mode Decomposition (EMD) algorithm
Merits greatly improved the accuracy of prediction
Demerits Computational complexity
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-8
Title of the Paper A kernel extreme learning machine-based neural network
to forecast very short-term power output of an on-grid
photovoltaic power plan
Authors and Publication Yildiz et al (Energy source and Utilization)
Methodology applied an ANN-based system for very short-term (2 to 4-
h) PV power forecasting
Merits Improved efficiency
Demerits Latency
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-9
Title of the Paper Solar power prediction based on satellite images and
support vector machine
Authors and Publication H. S. Jang et al (IEEE)
Methodology Support Vector Machine (SVM) used for PV forecasting
using satellite images
Merits Huge dataset can be accessed
Demerits Inaccurate prediction
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-10
Title of the Paper Short-term power prediction for photovoltaic power plants
using a hybrid improved Kmeans-GRA-Elman model
based on multivariate meteorological factors and historical
power datasets
Authors and Publication Lin et al (Energy Conversion and Management)
Methodology developed a multivariate neural network ensemble
forecast framework, which substantially improved the
forecast accuracy in short-term forecasting horizons.
Merits Accuracy
Demerits Computational complexity
SOCIAL RELEVANCE

Future prediction

01 03
02
Allocate power demand Estimate Power
generation by solar
Problem Statement

a. Forecasting/unit commitment for day ahead system helps the


generating station engineer to properly manage the power
demand

b. Again due to involvement of lots of environmental parameters


such as temperature, cloud quantity, dust exact prediction of PV
power output become a difficult task.

c. Maintaining a balance between the generation and demand is


the main concern
Existing System

01. Statistical Non-Learning Approach Models 05. Medium term Forecasting

02. Statistical Learning Approach Models 06. Long term forecasting

03. Intraday Forecasting 07. Data Synthesis

04. Short term forecasting 08. Data Analysis


Proposed System

01. In this work , for the classification of solar power , multilayer feed
forward network with back propagation algorithm is proposed

02. The Artificial Neural Network using back propagation with


momentum learning and adaptive learning rate are often used for
forecasting and prediction applications.

03. The main goal is to classify data in terms of higher accuracy.


HW&SW Requirements

Hardware and Software Requirements


HARDWARE SPECIFICATION

PROCESSOR : INTEL® PENTIUN (R) CPU A1018


CLOCK SPEED : 2.10 GHz
RAM : 2 GB
HARD DISK : 500 GB.

SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS

Operating System : Windows Xp/7.

Platform: Python

Front end : Pyspark


Backend : PySQL .
System Architecture
Modules

01. Dataset collection

02. Pre-processing

03. ANN classification

04. Performance analysis


DATASET COLLECTION

01. The datasets used in the experiments are collected from


three PV plants distributed in different areas in Southeastern
China, 2019.
02. The information of the collected datasets. Output power and
meteorological factors (i.e., temperature, cloud amount, dust
and relative humidity) are managed separately from a power
plant.
03. The power generation data are presented at five-minute
intervals, whereas the meteorological data are presented at
one-hour intervals due to the limitations of the weather
collection system.
DATASET COLLECTION

01. In order to avoid large differences in data scales that can impair the effectiveness of the
model, the data pre-processing is normalization, so that the data are restricted in range 0
to 1. The normalization speeds up the gradient descent to the optimal solution, increases
the comparability of the data, and improves the precision of the data. The formula is:

03. where 𝑥𝑖𝑛 ′ is the normalized input data; 𝑥𝑖𝑛 is the origin input data(PV output power
and meteorological factors data); and max(∙) and min (∙) are the maximum and
minimum values of the origin input data, respectively.
ANN CLASSIFICATION

01. For classification, the Feedforward Neural Network is presented using back propagation

with momentum learning and adaptive learning rate.


03. It has two main steps namely,
• Feed-forward: Data from input layer is fed forward through each layer and then output is
generated in the final layer.
• Back-propagation: This is the learning step. Once the output is generated, the error is
calculated w.r.t. the expected output and then this error is propagated in backwards direction to
adjust the weights to reduce the error. This is the learning step.
Cont..

consider the neural network shown in Figure . It has three neural units in each layers
and b1, b2, b3 are included as units (with input as 1) for bias. Figure has one input
layer, one output layer (layer L) and 2 hidden layers (L-1 and L-2).
Performance Analysis
Data set
Data processing
Plot of generated power
Temperature Plot
Comparison

s.No Method MAE Specificity


1 MLR 0.214 0.867
2 Persistent 0.162 0.912
3 Proposed 0.099 0.978
CONCLUSION

01 The artificial neural networks model 02 The feed-forward ANN with 14 weather
outperforms the multiple linear regression variables and with hourly step size for
analysis MLR model and the persistence forecasts performed better than the recursive
model. neural networks.

03 The performance of the ANN depends on


04 The normalized input data doesn’t improve
how well it is trained and on the quality of the performance, but removing the night
the data that is used. hours slightly improves the model
performance.

05 Plotting the data, investigating the correlation and sensitivity analysis between the variables, as well
as data cleansing of outliers are essential data preparation steps before building the forecasting
model.
References
• [1] D. Giorgi, M. P. Congedo, and M. Malvoni. "Photovoltaic power forecasting using statistical methods: impact of weather data." IET Science,

Measurement & Technology, vol.8, pp. 90-97, 2014.

• [2] J. Antonanzas, N. Osorio, R. Escobar, "Review of photovoltaic power forecasting", Solar Energy, vol.136, pp.78-111, 2016.

• [3] S. A. Karim, B. S. Singh, R. Razali and N. Yahya, "Data Compression Technique for Modeling of Global Solar Radiation," 2011 IEEE

International Conference on Control System, Computing and Engineering, 2011, pp.348-352

• [4] R Xiao, J Wang and F Zhang, "An Approach to Incremental SVM Learning Algorithm," 12th IEEE International Conference on Tools with

Artificial Intelligence, 2000, pp. 268- 273.

• [5] N. A. Gounden, S. A. Peter, H. Nallandula, "Fuzzy logic controller with MPPT using line-commutated inverter for three-phase grid-connected

photovoltaic systems," Renewable Energy,vol.34, pp.909-915,2009.

• [6] B. Wolff, J. Kühnert, E. Lorenz, O. Kramer, and D. Heinemann, "Comparing support vector regression for PV power forecasting to a physical

modeling approach using measurement, numerical weather prediction, and cloud motion data," Solar Energy, vol.135, pp.197-208, 2016.

• [7] B. Wolff, E. Lorenz, and O. Kramer, "Statistical learning for short-term photovoltaic power predictions," Computational Sustainability,vol.19,

pp.31- 45, 2016


Question and Answer...
Thank You

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