Solar Power Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks
Solar Power Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks
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system helps the generating sed do eiusmod tempor sed do eiusmod tempor
station engineer to properly incididunt ut labore et dolore incididunt ut labore et dolore
manage the power demand magna aliqua. magna aliqua.
and these by maintaining a
balance between the
generation and demand.
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-1
Title of the Paper Solar power forecasting using a hybrid EMD-ELM method
Authors and Publication Irani Majumder et al (IEEE)
Methodology A forecasting method has been mentioned that is
contingent on a hybrid empirical mode decomposition
(EMD) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM)
Merits Minimum computation
Demerits Less accuracy
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-2
Title of the Paper Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Using Adaptive Neuro
Fuzzy Inference System
Authors and Publication Yash Pal et al (IEEE)
Methodology The ANFIS model (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference
Systems) is used to predict photovoltaic power.
Merits Higher accuracy
Demerits Algorithmic complexity
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-3
Title of the Paper A Solar Power Prediction Using Support Vector Machines
Based on Multi-source Data Fusion
Authors and Publication Wang Buwei et al (IEEE)
Methodology Support vector machine based on data fusion (SVM-DF)
is proposed to run as the main regression model.
Merits continuous space by identifying structures in the mapping
of input to output data
Demerits Larger training needed
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-4
Title of the Paper A Hadoop based weather prediction model for
classification of weather data.
Authors and Publication A. K. Pandey et al (IEEE)
Methodology Fuzzy logic (FL) and artificial neural network fuzzy
interface system (ANFIS) methods are investigated for
accurate prediction of weather data on the basis of mean
square error.
Merits Easy to compute
Demerits Higher MSE
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-5
Title of the Paper Improved ANN-based algorithm for detection and
classification of faults on transmission lines
Authors and Publication Farhana Fayaz et al (IEEE)
Methodology A feed forward ANN with six inputs and eleven outputs
has been developed for the detection and classification of
faults
Merits Easy to access
Demerits Higher MSE
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-6
Title of the Paper A hybrid deep learning model for short-term PV power
forecasting
Authors and Publication P. Li et al (Applied Energy)
Methodology Presented a hybrid deep learning model combining
wavelet packet decomposition (WPD) and LSTM
networks for one-hour-ahead PV power forecasting
Merits Accuracy
Demerits More time
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-7
Title of the Paper A Novel Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting
Approach based on Deep Convolutional Neural Network
Authors and Publication Korkmaz et al (IJGE)
Methodology used a deep CNN structure combining with Empirical
Mode Decomposition (EMD) algorithm
Merits greatly improved the accuracy of prediction
Demerits Computational complexity
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-8
Title of the Paper A kernel extreme learning machine-based neural network
to forecast very short-term power output of an on-grid
photovoltaic power plan
Authors and Publication Yildiz et al (Energy source and Utilization)
Methodology applied an ANN-based system for very short-term (2 to 4-
h) PV power forecasting
Merits Improved efficiency
Demerits Latency
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-9
Title of the Paper Solar power prediction based on satellite images and
support vector machine
Authors and Publication H. S. Jang et al (IEEE)
Methodology Support Vector Machine (SVM) used for PV forecasting
using satellite images
Merits Huge dataset can be accessed
Demerits Inaccurate prediction
LITERATURE SURVEY
Literature survey-10
Title of the Paper Short-term power prediction for photovoltaic power plants
using a hybrid improved Kmeans-GRA-Elman model
based on multivariate meteorological factors and historical
power datasets
Authors and Publication Lin et al (Energy Conversion and Management)
Methodology developed a multivariate neural network ensemble
forecast framework, which substantially improved the
forecast accuracy in short-term forecasting horizons.
Merits Accuracy
Demerits Computational complexity
SOCIAL RELEVANCE
Future prediction
01 03
02
Allocate power demand Estimate Power
generation by solar
Problem Statement
01. In this work , for the classification of solar power , multilayer feed
forward network with back propagation algorithm is proposed
SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS
Platform: Python
02. Pre-processing
01. In order to avoid large differences in data scales that can impair the effectiveness of the
model, the data pre-processing is normalization, so that the data are restricted in range 0
to 1. The normalization speeds up the gradient descent to the optimal solution, increases
the comparability of the data, and improves the precision of the data. The formula is:
03. where 𝑥𝑖𝑛 ′ is the normalized input data; 𝑥𝑖𝑛 is the origin input data(PV output power
and meteorological factors data); and max(∙) and min (∙) are the maximum and
minimum values of the origin input data, respectively.
ANN CLASSIFICATION
01. For classification, the Feedforward Neural Network is presented using back propagation
consider the neural network shown in Figure . It has three neural units in each layers
and b1, b2, b3 are included as units (with input as 1) for bias. Figure has one input
layer, one output layer (layer L) and 2 hidden layers (L-1 and L-2).
Performance Analysis
Data set
Data processing
Plot of generated power
Temperature Plot
Comparison
01 The artificial neural networks model 02 The feed-forward ANN with 14 weather
outperforms the multiple linear regression variables and with hourly step size for
analysis MLR model and the persistence forecasts performed better than the recursive
model. neural networks.
05 Plotting the data, investigating the correlation and sensitivity analysis between the variables, as well
as data cleansing of outliers are essential data preparation steps before building the forecasting
model.
References
• [1] D. Giorgi, M. P. Congedo, and M. Malvoni. "Photovoltaic power forecasting using statistical methods: impact of weather data." IET Science,
• [2] J. Antonanzas, N. Osorio, R. Escobar, "Review of photovoltaic power forecasting", Solar Energy, vol.136, pp.78-111, 2016.
• [3] S. A. Karim, B. S. Singh, R. Razali and N. Yahya, "Data Compression Technique for Modeling of Global Solar Radiation," 2011 IEEE
• [4] R Xiao, J Wang and F Zhang, "An Approach to Incremental SVM Learning Algorithm," 12th IEEE International Conference on Tools with
• [5] N. A. Gounden, S. A. Peter, H. Nallandula, "Fuzzy logic controller with MPPT using line-commutated inverter for three-phase grid-connected
• [6] B. Wolff, J. Kühnert, E. Lorenz, O. Kramer, and D. Heinemann, "Comparing support vector regression for PV power forecasting to a physical
modeling approach using measurement, numerical weather prediction, and cloud motion data," Solar Energy, vol.135, pp.197-208, 2016.
• [7] B. Wolff, E. Lorenz, and O. Kramer, "Statistical learning for short-term photovoltaic power predictions," Computational Sustainability,vol.19,